Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Overused Angles

Quick, go ask 100 race fans at the track what they think of first time lasix. Like most angles like this, you will hear positive reviews. I am a simple guy and live my life under only a few basic rules, one of which is this: Never trust positive reviews of two things 1) a popular betting angle and 2) any movie starring Ben Affleck.

For our runner friends:

1st Lasix
Wins: 1,354
Horses: 13,252
Win %: 10.2
ROI: 0.80

For my standardbred brothers and sisters (hat tip to Ray):

1st Lasix
Starts: 2,543
Wins: 368
ROI: 0.81

Do yourself a favor - shop for another bet that has some value.

2 comments:

Ryan said...

How about 2nd start lasix off an improving 1st start? Obviously the odds can easily be ruined if the horse places well 1st start lasix. I usually watch the horses closely that are 1st start lasix. If they close when they shouldn't or maybe they race tough then get moved down next week. Sometimes that can warrant a play in my opinion.

Pull the Pocket said...

Hey Ryan,

In harness racing one thing we do not know is if the trainer has tried the horse on lasix in a schooler or a qualifier already, thus making 1st time lasix really a second time lasix.

I find everything is a subset when looking at data. For example, one might try 1st time lasix with time off; that way there is a chance that the trainer has treated the horse for awhile off the bleeding effort. If I run 1st time lasix in my database there are subsets that show profit, some with a win percentage of 33% - bris ratings, speed, etc.

Going in blindly is just not going to make you any money. And when we think about it, it makes sense. Horses that are switching equipment, or going thru a lasix change have problems. Problem horses are usually bad bets.