Thursday, April 30, 2009

First Look at Derby Odds

Betfair has opened the post position market late this evening and we are seeing a fairly tight book for this early in the game. This is much different from last year when the Brown looked to lay over the field. This is an interesting Derby, and this is even with Quality Road out.

With 13.6% overround we have:

IWR 7-2; Plenty wanted to lay at that price
Dunkirk 5-1; Thin market
Friesan Fire 6-1
POTN 7-1
Regal Ransom 17-1
Desert Party 18-1

It appears that there will be four horses under 10-1. I find it interesting that one week ago the illegal books were offering 40-1 for Regal Ransom. He is the biggest mover of all the horses when you compare last week to this week. That strikes me as odd.

As for Churchill I ran my database tonight and do not see too much. It is a fair track thus far this meet, in my opinion.

2 comments:

Cangamble said...

Trackmaster rated the Regal Ransom race much higher than anything that IWR has shown to date.
It is the only place I know that gives a speed figure for UAE or European races.
I think Desert Party will beat Regal Ransom in the Derby.
I'll be putting my obligatory Kentucky Derby post up probably tonight.

Anonymous said...

could it be mob money on regal ransom?