I hate being a gambler sometime, because these things really tend to bother me, when all I should be doing is being a fan.
Driving back today from the Conference with a friend (and professional gambler) we listened to the morning line for the Derby. I Want Revenge 3-1. Dunkirk 4-1. Pioneerof the Nile 4-1. We looked at each other and the car was almost in the ditch.
Those three horses, out of 20 of them, have a 65% chance to win, according to the morning line (yes I know the ML adds rake and is made for the crowd). This is absolutely mind-boggling: The other 17 horses have a 35% chance to win? If I could ever get that in a race, sign me up.
It goes without saying that IWR will be a massive overbet and is an auto-pitch, but the other two at those odds are auto-pitches as well.