Wednesday, September 23, 2009

Jug Picks.......... Like Anyone?

I am going through the elims, and if they have a good pool tomorrow, which they should, these races should be dandy betting affairs.

Elim one is an absolute barnburner which could provide some serious value. Straight Shooting is freshened up, Keep it Real was a no try last week off foot problems and could pull an upset, Mr. Wiggles is a good horse, River Shark is more than solid, Doubleshotascotch has been racing really well, and If I Can Dream just won a two heater on a half in the Confederation Cup. Competitive enough for ya?

Outside posts have been horrible, as usual, so that hurts 'Scotch', and possibly River Shark. Mr. Wiggles and If I can Dream will probably be overbet. I have an inkling to try a little pop on Straight Shooting. Fresh, back class, the rail; and he beat Sheer Desire in his qualifier. If any odds at all, I'll take it.

Elimination two is equally exciting for me. Carnivore is as sharp as a horse can be right now. Vintage Master and Well Said are well documented. Sheer Desire is racing well, as is Chasin Racin'.

I think value will lie in three possible areas: Carnivore, Chasin Racin and Vertical Horizon. Of those I think Vertical Horizon will be the longest, and might be worth a poke. He was bad last time in the Simcoe with no pop, but we have a trainer change. This outfit can improve them in a hurry, and because if this colts gate speed, and the proposed big price he is worth a swing for me.

My most likely winner for the Jug is Vintage Master, but there is some very good opportunities in this race for a Jug winner; perhaps even a third heat. If horses like Carnivore, Vertical Horizon or Straight Shooting get the perfect trips from their inside posts, and score - I want whomever draws the rail in the final.

Anyhoo, the card is a marathon as usual. You can tune in virtually all day via HPITv, twinspires.com and many other ADW's and catch it.

1 comment:

Ted Grevelis said...

I'll be pulling for River Shark. Part of the ownership group is the same group that manages I Am Woman, a filly pacer I have 12.5% of. Purely a sentimental choice on my part - after handicapping the elims I may think differently, but that's where the heart is.