Thursday, September 24, 2009

Well Said Wins the Jug in Straight Heats

For the twitter folks who were salivating like I was to bet against Well Said today....... well, we bit the dust. Actually the crowd was pretty much on par with us as he was only 2-1 in his elim, so betting agin' him was not uncommon. His elim was a thing of beauty and the final was fairly academic, although he was stretched out a bit in the final and Pierce had to go to the stick. If I Can Dream raced well.

The boys on one of the chat boards were giving me the business about Well Said, as I can never figure out when he is going to look like Secretariat like the Adios or M pace elim, or Slow Hanover like at Chester, in the Burlington, or last week when he was life or death to beat Carnivore. I was thinking about it, and although I have always loved his talent, I looked back and I could never, ever figure this horse out. Way back when handicapping last years Breeders Crown., I alluded to me guessing with him, and it has stayed the same to this day: "Well Said (5-1 fair) in my opinion has more pure talent than all of them combined, and he will be my play as I expect him to be underbet on the board. This colt has two things 1) He is a very inconsistent horse and 2) He has extreme talent. His Metro Final performance when he was hung out like a piece of laundry was a great effort and it would win Saturday's final ten times out of ten. I think he could be a great play at a good price if he's right."

I don't think I am the only one who guesses with him. For such a talented horse he has not even been the favorite in the betting 10 out of the 23 or 24 times he has raced, which is pretty shocking, considering he wins like a 1-9 shot at times and his main competition (Vintage Master) did not even break his maiden until July of this year. The crowd seems to be wary of his consistency, as well.

I think this colt will do exactly that the rest of the way. He will set a world record, but then be 15 lengths worse another time and get beat again by someone like Mr. Wiggles. He is just that kind of horse to me. I can't bet a race he is in anymore. Sound advice for my bankroll :)

I was surprised at Vintage Master today. Anyone else? He was under the stick to catch cover in a 28 and change quarter and was totally off his game. These horses have bad days now and again, and he sure picked a bad time to have a bad one. That was his first sub-par race this season; but as a sharp capper I know noted when saying he would be swinging against him today - his last quarter in his qualifier was slow for a horse like him. Maybe it was not a stretch to see him race mediocre.

As for the Jug, the day seemed to be well attended as usual, and there were some decent tilts. The track the last couple of days seemed sticky and along the inside a bit worn. That might have helped the racing, with come-from-behinders having a bit more of a shot. As Bob Pandolfo opined with a few stats on another board - it is the fastest, most speed favoring piece of dirt around. But not this week it seemed. The times were somewhat slower than usual.

Another one in the books. On to Lexington next for many of the three year olds, trotters and pacers.

8 comments:

Pacingguy said...

I don'tthink you give Well Said the credit he deservces. With his victory in the Jug, Well Said puts himself back in the picture for Horse of the Year especially if he wins out the rest of the way.

Muscle Hill has been very good, but he is following what has become a rote path for the top 3yo trotters avoiding any track smaller than the mile oval this yaer. Well Said, may not be perfect this year, but he is only the second horse to complete the NA Cup, Meadowlands Pace, Jug trifecta (Precious Bunny was the last). He raced on the 5/8 oval, granted losing the Adios final from the nine hole, probably the result of racing when he should have taken a week off and his owners took the risk of racing him on the smaller oval for the first time when he had to race twice, possibly even a third time when as the simulcast team said he seemed a little limpy in the warm ups (Steve Elliot admitted he was not 100%).

Yes, Muscle Hill has been more dominating but the 3yo trotting crop in my opinion is weaker than the 3yo pacing crop.

Make no mistake about it, with Muscle Hill figuring to go undefeated this year, Well Said needs to be perfect the rest of the way to have a chance to win HOY.

I am not saying Well Said will win Horse of the Year, and you will find no arguement from me if Muscle Hill wins, but it is ironic that the toughest race Muscle Hill may find himself in this year is the HOY balloting.

Pull the Pocket said...

PG,

The second best three year old in the nation broke his maiden on July 15th - of his three year old season. This might be the worst crop of three year olds I have ever seen.

If MH wins out he will win in a landslide. He is a horse for a generation. Well Said is a really nice and amazingly fast three year old colt.

JMO.

PTP

Anonymous said...

Well Said is a horse I can not quite get my head around. SO I agree with you PTP. I wonder how he is not 1-20 every week when I see him race a few races this year. Then I see him race a few times and want to bet every cent I own against him the following week. There must be something that bugs him week to week.
RP is one who is always confident. Even he yesterday was interviewed and sounded like he was going to have a tough time, and he said "if he's right" he should be fine. I think the connections are baffled by him like handicappers are.

Pacingguy said...

Elliot has acknowledged Well Said is not 100% sound. This would explain Pierce's comments and also add a little more to WS's stock.

Also, please don't think I am knocking Muscle Hill. As I said earlier, if he wins HOY you will hear no arguement from me (unless he loses in Lexington and the Crown, something i don't expect).

Anonymous said...

I know there are no great three year olds (other than Well Said) in this crop, and I am not saying he is........... but was anyone else impressed that If I can Dream gave Well Said a little tussle in the Final? I expected WS to blow right by him but the little dude held tough. The rest of the field was way back.

Regards,

Rick

Anonymous said...

Well Said is not that hard to figure out. If he has to be used hard early, he struggles a little late. When that doesn't happen, there isn't a horse in this crop of three year olds that can go with him.
The trick is trying to figure out when he'll be used too early.
In addition, and much like Somebeach in the early part of last year, he's currently racing large when he's visibly not at his best. In the Simcoe at Mohawk, and again at the Jug, the horse was showing signs of being off. Obviously, a superior animal, even if not entirely consistent in his superiority.

Anonymous said...

I was wondering about VM, too.

What happened to him? He looked like he wanted no part of racing yesterday,

Anonymous said...

I took a decent shot against Well Said in the elim like you did. How can anyone bet a horse at under 2-1 who raced the way he did last week from the 8? It is one of those cases about being right, but I hope on god's earth the people who bet won on him keep playing harness racing.