Friday, October 30, 2009

Betting the Horses - Easy Money Baby

We tend to have to deal with quite a bit as horseplayers. High take, inquiries, horses racing bad. It is a tough game.

Bad beats drive players nuts. I have gotten that out of my system over the years. We discussed them before on some handicapping topics. You have to stay sane to play the game - no ifs ands or buts.

We do not chat too much about bad beats here. After all, we all have them. We have all missed some scores. Just because I have a blog there is no use going through them all. Not to mention, after a few minutes they usually fade away anyway and I am on to the next race.


I bet a lot of races - tons of them. Over the years I shudder to think how many. Today something happened that in all those years has never happened to me before. If I heard this happen to someone else I would probably share it, so I figure what the heck. If you don't like losing bet stories, stop now. You are forewarned :)

I am having a little lunch today, tough week. And decide, since I downloaded all the tbred stuff today, I would have a look at it. I flip on to Aqueduct Race 5. I see this (click for a clearer look):

The two in the 5th looks great. Good speed, excellent models on my software that I have written based on AQU's track, and these speed horses in general. Green light, especially at 6-1.

So I take some supers and some ex's. I use the 5 (a bomb) and 6 (a shorter shot) as my key horses. My two horse jogs and a three horse photo happens behind him between the 4,5,6. I need the six second or third for supers, and the five second for ex's. Well, the 4 horse photos me out, and the five photos the six out. $5500 super and a really nice ex gone, so no luck there.

Big deal, right? Happens a million times a day.

Then I flip to the 5th at Woodbine going off not far after. Here is my sheet:

The ten looks great to me. #1 speed and a "High ROI instance" for horses over 10-1 ML that I have monitored over the last two years of cards. Worth a poke. But holy smokes the 14 looks solid too for a bomb. A nice speed model for horses at this distance too. Well, let's go superfecta hunting!

I play a 20 center, throwing in the four (chalk) and the six with a Fcycle model:

Woodbine TB, Race 5, $0.20 SFC 4,10,14 / 4,6,10,14,16 / 4,6,10,14,16 / 1-8,10-14,16

The ten is 17-1, the 14 is 30-1, the six is 99-1. If this hits I should be good, but almost no chance.

But it happens. The 14 wins, at 30-1, the ten is second at 17-1 and the six at 99-1 bobs out the 11. This could be a pool shot. It is kind of dark and I watched it quickly, though, did the 11 nose out the 6? Photo: Sure enough the 11 comes third. My poterntial pool shot is lost on a head bob - I think around $40,000. The super paid 14-10-11-all.

OK, two in a row, this one for $30,000+. Not good. But life goes on.

I took a small break after that and came back for the AQU seventh race. This is what I saw (I told ya I can't tell just a regular story with two in a row):

The 8 horse might just be a good play. Holy cow she is 30-1 and ranked first. What the heck, let's take a swing. The three, six and seven look like the uses behind her. So I take some ex's and a super.

The 8 looks to be cruising to victory, but 50 yards from the wire goes nuts and interferes with the seven and she checks. But the 8 goes on to win easily. Regardless, inquiry!

Easy pitch I thought and it happened that way. No win money at 30-1 and another lost superfecta that would have paid big dough. The 7-8-6 is no good to me, although I am sure many were happy as the seven was well bet.

One beat in a row for a good score is alright. Two for a monster score is a little less alright. Three in a row? Never in my life. Not even close.

Whoever says the game is easy has obviously never played a race in his life. I know, I know: I am preaching to the choir.

OK, thanks for letting me get that off my chest. Time to get back at it. It's been a long week and I need a little more racing. I wish everyone of ya good luck! I hope one or two of you even made some cash on those races that I got squirted on. I might as well pass along some dough to you guys who put up with and read this blog!


Anonymous said...

Incredible. Tough day. Tough game.

Anonymous said...

Incredible. Tough day. Tough game.