Does Racing's Revenue Response Ignore the "Little Things"?

I read a story on Dave's Hot Chicken recently, and it more than just made me hungry (I've never heard of Dave's Hot Chicken before). 

The brand was started by four friends in LA, and a quarter of their 270 stores reside in the Golden State. As many of you likely know, California raised their minimum wage to $20/hr, and Dave's and other fast food brands had some choices to make. 

They set up emergency calls with all franchisees and went to work almost immediately. They had to cut costs, and find ways for customers to spend more money (because they had to raise prices, and higher prices mean lower sales).

Here's what they came up with, in almost real time, with all of these changes implemented within months.

On the cost side:

• They invested in automatic dishwashers instead of cleaning dishes by hand
• They contracted out cleaning work
• They shifted prep to contractors
• They installed grease systems that were automated and were able to reuse grease

On the revenue side they did increase prices (8%; to counter an $8M labor cost increase), but they did quite a bit more than that:

• They implemented self serve kiosks, and found out customers ordered more when ordering for themselves, upping spend per order (in betting parlance, churn). 
• They created "Hot Boxes" and new packaging to increase order size, and gross sales
• They created low-cost menu items like single chicken orders for $7. 
• They added new products

The CFO said "there's a lot of little things"; the CEO added, "We can't just raise prices, we have to get better."

All of those "little things" (absent price hiking) has increased the bottom line per store by about $200,000 per year (guesstimating here based on my knowledge of that vertical, that's about 5% of gross sales). And it happened with lightning speed. 

Over in racing, the response to falling revenue has been primarily twofold:

• For the vast majority of players margins are increased (from 6% in 1905, to 21% now; ironically, CAW's are the only ones getting 1905 margins). 
• More alternative gaming is asked for

Some racetracks, like the Meadowlands which relies on handle, have cut costs the best they can. They run two nights a week for a reason. 

On the revenue side, as noted in part in HRU this weekend, has the sport even tried to increase in-store sales by maximizing the track feed? We still see races raced over top of each other, why? Where are the coupons and discounts to every day customers to encourage wagering and wagering stickiness? 

If Dave's Hot Chicken can spend money on kiosks, letting customers choose their meals, why can't customers get access to better tools to allow them to bet better or bet late like CAW's can? Hell, can we get a system to the point where a customer knows what the final price is? Where's the single wallet? 

Jim Collins' seminal work - Good to Great - noted how companies flywheel to grow. They do a whole lot of little things. 

Dave's Hot Chicken received an $8M kick in the ass that could put them out of business and in response immediately did those "little things". Our sport seems to get hit over the head with a plank on a yearly basis, and I don't get same vibe. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.  

Poteck on Racing Wagering Trends in Canada & CRW Wagering

2024 marked the first year ever that Woodbine Entertainment did not put out a year end press release detailing their annual and year over year handle numbers. 

It had me wondering why so I reached out to the Canadian Pari-Mutuel Agency to request the numbers.

The charts below detail Ontario and Canadian historical wagering for the past 19 years and for the last 6 months of 2024. 

Woodbine represents ~70% of the 2023/2024 Canadian handle. The numbers are not very pretty.

Chart 1 Above (click to enlarge charts) - Canadian customers wagering more on U.S. tracks, less on Canadian tracks. International customers making up more and more handle (in 2024 making up more handle than domestic outlets) 

Chart 2 - Ontario wagering only since 2006.  

Chart 3 & 4 - Local wagering on Canadian tracks falls the second half of 2024. 

A couple of things jumped out to me. 

The amount Canadian's wager on Canadian tracks has decreased significantly over the past 19 years, down about 60% when not accounting for inflation. Clearly Canadian Horseplayers are not pleased with the product. 

I am not sure what happened the last half of 2024 as Canadian wagering plummeted 12% on Canadian tracks, 6.5% overall. An aberration or a sign of things to come? 

The amount Canadians have wagered on foreign tracks has remained stable when not accounting for inflation. However foreign customer wagering on Canadian tracks has approximately doubled over the past 10 years. 

The increase is likely due to expanding the signal distribution and the growth of CRW's. The strength of the US dollar has contributed, as well. Hypothetically, if CRW's represent 30% of Canadian wagering then they account for upwards of half all foreign wagering in Canadian dollars, yikes! 

The question going forward is, has the signal expansion and CRW volume maxed out? And if so, how steep will future handle declines be? 

One interesting question: Is a takeout hike in the offing? 

The CPMA’s sole source of funding is the 0.8% levy placed on all wagers made in Canada. In 2006/07 the levy took in ~12 million. In 2024 it was $8 million. The CPMA can raise the levy to 1%, which is the highest they can go without receiving legislative approval. It will be interesting to see if they do increase the levy, and if the tracks absorb the 0.2% increase or if it will be passed on to the Horseplayers. 

One must wonder what these numbers would look like if Woodbine was not bestowed a Canadian online wagering monopoly where they take advantage of Canadian Horseplayers with the unprecedented scheme of increasing the takeout rate on American racetracks. 

A big thank you to PTP for sharing this information. And in the spirit of the blog, “have a great Monday everybody!”

Eric Poteck is a long time industry watcher, presenter at race conferences, horseplayer and general watchdog (aka pain in the butt) of the Canadian pari-mutuel business. He can be followed on twitter @Epo13.

Monday Racing Notes & My Horse Racing Twitter Tariff Riffs (This Kind of Rhymes)

Hello everyone, and Happy Monday. 

I've been playing the races, lurking, and not tweeting a whole lot (since I have very little to say of importance). But thank goodness for the blog where I can type in Twinky-form with impunity. 

Here goes. 

First off, I had a nice plane ride listening to part one of the Dennis Montoro Bet with the Best pod, but somehow I missed part two was released. It's here and I'll be listening to that tonight. Dennis provides insights on the pools that you won't hear in a lot of other places. 

A quarterhorse trainer really got nabbed last week, as reported on the Bacon Report. One of the drugs was not approved by the FDA way back in 2010. Seriously. So how is it around on a backstretch (allegedly, of course)? When people on the twitter complain about exotic drugs and get shot down like they don't exist, I think this is why they have that opinion. 

Despite takeout and all the rest of the bad, bad things, horse racing can be the best bet in the history of the universe. How can it be any other way when we analyze the late pick five at Gulfstream on Holy Bull day?

Leg one was Mike Maker, going a marathon distance off the claim. 

Leg two was Todd Pletcher with a surface switch going first time dirt, second off a layoff who opened at 5-2 (so someone knew something we should've been able to see). 

Leg three was a Eurton mare that was my best bet of the day. And I'm no Pittsburgh Phil. 

Leg four was a horse liked by many sharps, including Gallo on the Sport of Kings pod, and the great Marcus Hersh from the DRF/NFL.com.

Leg five was a key for me (I hit the pick 3, yay me), so I am sure it was a use for everyone. See leg three. 

This assembly of very logical winners paid around $80,000 for 50 cents. 

I hope the people who run this sport start doing some good things because that kind of value on the mind-bending yet scrutable chess board should never, ever die. 

As most know, Donald J. Trump did some serious tariffs on us poor souls in the Tundra last weekend. Our dollar sank, cold Canadians booed the U.S. National Anthem at hockey games, substituted US booze for Canadian booze (spoiler alert, you end up with the same hangover) and probably cranked a lot of Rush in the minivan. It was a wild weekend. 

For those that don't know much about tariffs, you've come to the right place because this is what PTP was built for. I took economics classes in the 1980's. Here's what it all means. 

Those of you with US betting accounts (how dare you, Benedict) just got a raise. It's like getting a rebate without being a CRW. 

Woodbine handle is about to go up. Tundra Dollar down, US dollars in, more handle. We'll see if they report the good news by attributing it to marketing. 

It's been reported that it costs 25% more to read Swifty twitter rants. Apparently Tinky is in the EU this week, so his 34,874 word tweets about the breeding of this new Chilean horse racing at Gulfstream in the sixth can be read by Canadians at the same exact price as it was last month. 

CJ and his lovely wife are about to take time off making speed figures and make more trips north, probably to the Curling championships. Bundle up my Oklahoma friends, it's been a cold winter. 

Speaking of speed figures, word is, all Canadian races that were scheduled for a mile are now only 0.66778 of a mile. And you guys complain about run up. 

ITP is about to release his new e-book titled "It's More Important than Ever for Canadians to Listen to Me Over Andy Serling About Ticket Structure."

Ray Cotolo is taking advantage of the strong Yankee dollar (like the rest of Hollywood, he's gone corporate) and he's making a new film in Vancouver. He plays a drifter who spends the entire Kentucky Downs meet underneath a trackside tent that they raised takeout to pay for. The film is only slightly less confusing than 12 Monkeys, and he did a good job making Hastings Park look like Kentucky Downs. 

There's a rumor Philadelphia Park has found a way to increase the takeout for Canadians based on the new tariffs. Starting tomorrow, when you hit a superfecta at the storied Pennsylvania oval you will owe them money. 

Everyone on the twitter knows I built a new shed in the back a few years ago after mispunching a superfecta and scoring a couple of K ($CDN). I've invited Bucky and Beem to come up this summer and they accepted at the low price of $1,000 CDN shed rent for the week. I'm happy to report that I just photoshopped the original email and changed the currency to $US and I'M FREAKING RICH. 

California horse racing is short on horses and short on time. On Friday they signed a deal with Canada to import racing stock to get those field sizes up (and possibly find Baffert his next Derby winner). Now the horses cost way more, and border security is holding them until things become clearer. Lisa Lazarus just held an emergency meeting and it looks like the Kentucky Breeders Fund might have to step in. 

Well, late breaking news - the above could all be knee jerk. The Donald is apparently meeting with Trudeau today, which is kind of weird since JT resigned because of approval ratings that were lower than Belinda Stronach's. But if something comes out of it I'll report the good news. 

Which reminds me, I better get that $1000 US from Bucky and Beem right now just in case. 

Have a nice Monday everyone. 

Prediction Market Dominoes

It was announced this week that federally regulated prediction market Kalshi has entered the sports betting market. 

For those who are not as familiar with these mediums, they generally mirror what one can bet on a sports betting website, but you receive lower vig, and are able to cash in and out of a bet pretty seamlessly; should liquidity be available, of course, because you need someone to take the other side of your bet. 

Anyone who has played a betting exchange, or similar markets (that are currently available) will find them old news. 

I was involved with a peer to peer loans exchange start-up years ago that ran into a regulatory morass. Other exchange or market medium changes, like California racing given the go-ahead to legally offer horses in this way back in 2012, got stuck in a bog of craziness. 

• "The company’s regulator, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has a new acting chairman, Republican Commissioner Caroline Pham, who announced additional leadership changes on Wednesday. Those departures include that of the CFTC’s general counsel, Rob Schwartz, who recently argued against Kalshi’s election contracts before a panel of federal appeals judges. The leadership changes and the more approving view of Trumpworld toward prediction markets suggest companies like Kalshi could be free to launch even more event contracts like the sports-related ones."

This definitely looks to be shaped much better for success. 

There's still political risk - so many states get paid so much money for sports betting deals with the Fanduels or DKs of the world and they take that revenue stream seriously. But for bettors who are serious of getting great prices and not having to pay ridiculous cash out fees, it's certainly welcome. 

I guess another item is the bettor him or herself. 

In Canada, for example, the previous government deregulated the phone, internet and banking space, providing competition to the monster companies that held sway over consumers. This opened up cheap deals and better banking outlets, but consumers were married to the old way, and were infiltrated with "bundles" and special deals where they didn't move on from the old guard in any big numbers. 

Despite better prices, better cashouts and a great interface, I suspect similar occurs in this space, should these markets proliferate. DK and Fanduel (plus their branding) and SGPs, special offers and all the rest will probably do just fine. 

This always brings me back to what folks who read the blog have heard before, and you may be tired of hearing it. But Kalshi is new. From being new they have entered a betting space with new technology. They've got regulation on their side. They have an in. There's a non-zero chance they could be huge. 

Horse racing had this "in" more than 14 years ago. They had the ear of pols. They already worked with regulators. Exchanges were approved. 

People shouldn't be diving in to bet Kansas City Chiefs Super Bowl futures, or Kentucky Derby futures or whatever other futures that are or will be offered in the Kalshi market. They should be betting already into an horse racing industry owned or led market. It was given first-mover on this over a decade ago. 

Have a nice weekend everyone. 

In the Horse Racing Casino Revenue and Land Asset Bubble, All KPI's Lead to Bad Places

Bacon is covering the Gulfstream Park mess, and he provided an excellent summary here.  

Since AI is the new fancy version of Cliff's (Coles in Canada) Notes, the AI version of the above is that Gulfstream will probably be no more come 2028 (or sooner). 

In a presentation made by Keith Brackpool (there's a blast from the past in California takeout hike lore; these people seem to just move around), it was detailed the land was worth over $1B, which is a lot of scratch. Stronach bought the track for $95M in the late 1990's. 

Further to that, and this is most interesting to me, is the casino revenue. 

Look who tops the list - Pompano Park. The old time historic track that closed a (de)couple of years ago. Yes, the one with purses that rivalled a county fair, with horses (no offence) to match. 

Unpacking that disconnect: The entire sport of Florida harness racing (including the breeding industry in the state) was at a track that brought in $132M of revenue and no one could save the place. Even as it was receiving what many would consider scraps. 

If the sport of horse racing mattered to important people, Gulfstream would be racing, along with Pompano (with some of the highest purses in the world), Hialeah and Calder. But it doesn't. 

If your racing venue brings in tons of casino money it doesn't matter. 

If your racing venue is a storied track patronized by Andy Williams, Ed Sullivan or Colonel Sanders himself, it doesn't matter. 

If an entire industry, including racing and breeding, depends on your track, it doesn't matter. 

If your track has Pegasus races, and Pegasus statues, and is a staple of the sport's wagering make-up for the entire continent, it doesn't matter. 

This is nothing really that new. Balmoral Park in Chicago was quite a successful place in year's past and the home for Illinois racing. They'd do over a million a night, with purses most nights totalling less than $40,000. If we add $20,000 in cost to run a card, their handle revenue to cost ratio was probably in decent shape, but it went the way of the dodo bird, too. 

Casino revenue, check. 

Good horses, good trainers, a good place to watch a race, check. 

Storied races, historic venues that host Breeders Crowns and Breeders Cups, check. 

Big handles, check. 

You can have all of those things and still end up a parking lot or a strip mall. It's sadly the state of the sport.

Do the CRW Teams Have Body Language Covered?

There was an interesting discussion on the twitter recently with Chris asking, "we all know about the advantages for the CAW teams, but what are some advantages for the human player?"

There were some good suggestions, one of which was inside info which is a human trait, and I agree with that completely. We've seen some sharp fair odds computer players look dumbfounded when a horse they didn't figure runs off the screen where on-track they know. 

But intuitively, I suspect the answer to this question is frankly "not much". If you're going to bet hundreds of millions of dollars and have any skill in setting up an organization, you're probably going to have most bases - whether computer or human - covered. 

One area the teams try to cover is body language, but I'm not convinced they are particularly excellent at it (yet). 

First off, if a horse looks sore, it's pretty hard to change a line on the fly, especially with the extent of the soreness. Sore horses who are 8-5 on paper can be 5-2 fair odds, or 520-1 fair odds. Lame horses for me, you and many are an auto-pitch; we're not guessing degrees. 

Second, (and I'm the first to admit this could be anecdotal and I miss things like everyone else) I see little adjustment in the late betting when I personally see a lame or sore horse. 

Just in the past week there was a race where a horse came out looking horrible (who usually looks okay), and in my view should've been scratched. The multi-race wagers (wagers bet before you can see the animal on the track) indicated a strong betting team horse: odds of about 6-5 in the win pool. 

The betting opened hard with an even money win price, but after the parade the horse moved like we'd expect from sharp people noticing the soreness; he closed at 9-5. But it was only 9-5. If the teams were that sharp, wouldn't we expect a higher price? (The horse ran 8th).

I don't know exactly what goes on inside the "team room" but I have been around the block a little outside of it. 

Back before the word "CAW" was a thing, many sharps were betting on Betfair; but by sharps I mean some of the human folks Chris alludes to in his question. I'd often see movement after a post parade at the exchange based on how a horse looked. 

I particularly remember a stakes race at Saratoga where I faded a horse for more than I ever have, based on stiffness. She was from a top barn, and was 7-5, but not long after the parade she was 5-2 on the exchange, then 3-1. She finished at 3.9-1 and ran out of the money. Who were myself and others getting filled by on the buy end? From the betting bots. 

It's dumb to think we'd know more than a well-capitalized, well-run team of sharps. But to Chris's point I do believe there are avenues where we can be better than they are. We see it on the tote board each and every day. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.