Well back with some Beach news that certainly has fans in Ontario interested.
First, it looks like the horse will be entered in an Ontario Sires Stake race on August 3rd and 10th at Mohawk. This is I assume to lock his place into the $300,000 OSS Superfinal in October/November. He'll be like 1-50 odds, or something like that.
Then it appears he is off to the unofficial 2nd jewel in the 'ol Canadian Triple Crown, the Confederation Cup at Flamboro Downs. To some of our friends out there who have not seen and want to watch the Beach, head there if he goes, and if you can. It is a little slice of harness racing on a half mile track near Hamilton, Ontario. You'll get to see him up close, have a nice ale outside in the sunshine, catch the ubiquitous women holding beer banners; and most of all two heats! Beach's trainer has said in the press that perhaps it might be only one heat with a lack of entries, but we'll stick our reputation (ya, I know, what reputation?) on the blog out here and predict three divisions, just like always.
Secondly, what the heck is up with the Jug Future Pool? Somebeach is the favorite? The connections have said that they are not going, but there it is. Chalk status at 3-1.
Some horseplayer math. A 10% chance he enters and an 80% chance he wins if he does enter, minus some time value for him not being sick or something, let's take away a bit for that, maybe a 5% chance. So what we're left with is the Beach with fair odds of about 14-1. I am no math genius, but I think that 3-1 is an underlay.
Coincidentally, Curlin was 14-1 to win the Arc, before he even tried the turf. I don't know what it is with future pools, but they are pretty wacky.
Regardless what happens, fans will see the Beach, more than likely four times in the next four weeks. You can't ask for more than that. You can not watch Mohawk video for free, without some sort of betting account, but Flammy has their signal beaming to all and it is available on the website. So pop in there if you want to watch it.
If he does go to the Cup, trust me, watch. Cup day is a great day; and to our thoroughbred fans, two heaters is harness racing history. It is something you won't see Big Brown do in the Haskell. Harness racing is Wayne Cashman instead of Bobby Orr. For those who might get that reference ;)
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5 comments:
With regards to the LBJ Future Pool, they are indicating in their handicapping comments they are distributing with the program that the owners have indicated they don't plan to race him in the jug, so the fans are being warned.
I am shocked at SBSW going to the Confederation Cup, the money is decent for sure, but you have to go 2 heats, I can't see them only having one division, more like 2 and probably 3. I would rather win the Little Brown Jug then the Confederation Cup, it has way more prestige, and these connections have to take this stuff into account since he will be a stallion. I think it is great a little track like Flamboro Downs will have SBSW to showcase, hopefully they roll with it and promote it to the hilt and get a great crowd out and hopefully some of the fans will return on subsequent visits because they saw such a good race and had such a good time. One thing is for sure you are up close and personal to the horses at Flamboro compared to places like Woodbine, it is shaping up to be a great day, hopefully the marketing department at Flamboro reads this blog, and does some top notch marketing of this once in a lifetime opportunity !!
Hey Allan,
Yes sir, there is nothing at all wrong with that at all. Futures pools are like that everywhere. They are an interesting beast with the public at times, and I thought the price was pretty astounding.
I have not read too much about time value, and noise and futures pool betting in a study or gambling book, but it would be an interesting topic.
PTP
Sorry about your comment not being posted Anon! It was stuck in cyberspace.
Good post. I wonder as well why not the Jug.
But that loss is Flammy's gain. I am sure Chris Roberts will be pulling out all the stops if Beach confirms.
But other horses have won the little brown jug and it was no biggie...Flamboro sure could use the media boost though, it would definitely attract attention.
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