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Derby Odds Board Taking Shape

With about a 12% overround, the odds board at Betfair has begun to take shape for Saturday's Derby (brought to you by Yum Brands, apparently). Click to enlarge, if interested.


Dialed In has a projected "starting price" of 4.3-1, which is right in line with what the ML oddsmaker and the public seems to think. Nagging rumors seem to follow this horse, but the public does not seem to be buying it.

Archarcharch is bit by the rail bug. The bettors have him at about 16-1 currently, which is very high. I have a rule with racing and betting in general - when little old ladies in the slots parlor, and every turf writer from here to Kenya mention a fade angle on a horse, you are probably getting value. Rail draws don't make bad Derby bets, not getting odds to get paid make bad Derby bets.

Uncle Mo for about a week now has had potential sharps lining up bids and having them hit. Today there was a sizeable chunk wanted to book at 7 and off it went. Betfair's SP says this colt will be about 6-1. (note - the scratch market is over, so these will be refunded if/when Mo is scratched)

The longest shot on the board will be Watch Me Go. He's at about 122-1.

There has been some talking up of Shackleford and Master of Hounds. Neither horse is grabbing too much action. The price on Shackleford is extremely tempting, in my opinion. That was a beautiful effort last time and I would not blame a soul for liking this horse; but he does seem to race like a hanger, as he did in his maiden victory.

Of note, Betfair's exchange mechanism absolutely eliminates the favorite-longshot bias, so many of those long prices will be shorter on the tote.

We'll see what tomorrow brings, but right now this might be a pretty good snapshot.

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