Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Quick Filly Starts the Buzz

Last evening top Canadian trotting filly Crys Dream made her three year old debut and the track was abuzz. The filly, who was 7 for 8 last year, winning most in laughers, showed the winter may have only helped. Leaving 7th in the field of nine, driver Luc Ouellette moved her off third over cover and roared home.



She is essentially the first pure buzz horse of 2011, and it is really rare for a trotting filly to hold that honor. Often times they rarely show brilliance, only capability. Not this one.

Usually the three year old colts have the sport talking, but this year that crop looks somewhat suspect. It may be the year of the filly, as filly pacer See You At Peelers is a superstar and has already qualified well.

Notes

Western Fair has put together a nice card for Friday's Molson Pace elims. Over the last three or four years they have worked very hard at that event and it is paying off. Branding an event takes work, no matter if you are putting on a horse race, sporting event or flea market. They are doing things right there.

Do you ever wonder why betfair is popular? Here is a chat board post from a betfair horse racing customer complaining about paying an extra charge; because he is winning too much. That is a narrative that old time racing and its penal takeout rates can't construct.

Tomorrow is the first edition of Unharnessed, the Randy Waples web harness racing show.

Woodbine missed the $100k pick 4 guarantee the last three weekends. What think, not enough harness players, or is the twenty cent option the culprit?

The Preakness mascot was a good idea. Time to end that debate.

Have a good Tuesday folks!

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

A couple of favs for this Friday's eliminations at Western:

Stonebridge Tonic; Foiled Again; Monkey On My Wheel; Village Janus; Peach Martini and Lukes Sophie.

A Preakness Mascot? Really? Clash of the Titans called.....

Claudette :)

ITP said...

The 20 cent option definitely lowers the handle on bets like this. It allows the smaller bettors to bet less and FORCES the biggest bettors to bet less or not at all.

Betfair charging winners a 20% surcharge on their profits is the scumbag move of the century. There is no justifiable reason for this. Screw Betfair!

Anonymous said...

I've never understood premium charges.... because I have not been charged a premium charge. I have made profit each year since 2004. I think it's there for backers and layers who play many markets and trade with a massively high % of small winning bets - or so I've read.

R

Pull the Pocket said...

ITP,

I think Woodbine made an error early on with the 20 center. I think they were spooked because they raised takeout on the bet from 14.75% to 25% and they needed to show growth in that bet despite the hike. 20 cents was an easy way to do that, which they did simultaneously.

It is extremely difficult to take a shot at that bet because so much is covered. Add the fact that players in the US are betting dollars, and it adds another wrench.

For harness it is not terrible, because they can usually card four fields of 9 or 10. For the thoroughbreds it is not very attractive at all, with short fields in the sixth, and sometimes 4th.

R,

I believe the charge is a piggy back for data charges. Any regular player for horses who backs (and does some laying) will be nowhere near a premium charge. Any professional player will not be either.

I think with the cost of bet processing, and the need to hit growth targets, this tax made some sense from a corporate perspective. However it takes some traders out of the game, and Betfair needs traders too. One of the candidates for premium charges are folks who go green and have free longs of $5 or $10 on longer shots. That is a huge draw for some players/traders. Who doesn't want a free bet?

PTP

Anonymous said...

I think I'm a little out of my league here as far as professional betting. I wish I knew as much as you guys when it comes to %'s and winning the big money supers, trifectas, and exactas. Can someone explain how heavy post positions play on the order of finish on a favorite? As well as switching up drivers everytime a particular horse hits the track? Thanks.

Claudette

Pull the Pocket said...

Hi Claudette,

I don't know how to take care of a horse, so we're even :)

What you will notice with betting angles and items like post positions and driver changes is that the odds generally take care of the angle.

In betting things like this we look at two items: Impact value and return on investment.

If a horse moves from an 8 post off a decent line to a one post on a half mile track, his impact value (i.e. the win rate of that move) will be high. But, since everyone sees the post position move, the ROI will be low.

Favorites by post position is a good exercise. A chalk might be from the ten post at Woodbine and some bettor might say "that's a weak chalk because of the post position". In reality it could (and often times is) a very strong chalk, because the odds board is not stupid. Favorite hit rates by driver and by post are pretty close.

It's different when you are a professional/serious player and one that goes for a night at the track. You want winners when you go one day a month; when you play each day you want winners, but they have to pay right or you go broke.

PTP

Anonymous said...

LOL! Well, I'll tell you what, you come to my farm and I'll teach you how to take care of a horse, then I'll go to a racetrack and you can teach me how to win the $16,000 $1 superfecta? Ka-Ching!

Seriously though, would these bettors making their picks based on the night's program information, like, racelines, scratches, qualifying times, etc.? Or are they reading the morning line odds/post time odds and determining their picks based on what everyone else is doing? I mean, Crys Dream went off at 6/5 without even making an appearance in 2011, was that because of her performance in 2010? After this, I'll give you a break from my questions! :)

Claudette

Pull the Pocket said...

Hi C,

There are probably 10,000 factors that go into making a decision.

In terms of Crys Dream you had to analyze a bunch of things -

* is she tight enough to go 155.4?
* will Luc try in her first start?
* can she win in 54 right away, like she is capable of?
* can she go in 54 and win even if she does not have an all out effort?

Turns out that 6-5 was a pretty nice price because unless the half crawled, she would have won the race. She was cranked and ready, and those trotters dont breathe the same air as she does.

That's my 2 cents.

PTP

Pacingguy said...

Buzz horse? Take a look at Tioga Downs race replays from this past Sunday and check out race 6 and look at Feels Like A Fool's performance. I think it got lost being it wasn't at WEG and it was the Simpson Memorial. Granted, it wasn't the deepest field but it was his first start of the year. I think he will be interesting to watch this year.

ITP said...

While visually impressive, a 4K claimer went almost as fast the very next race.

I know......time doesn't mean anything.