Saturday, May 7, 2011

Derby Line by Line

It was quite a show today. So much for a boring Derby (I don't know about you, the Derby is never boring).

Here are some thoughts:

My software called for a fast half, and after all, it's the Derby - we always have a fast half. Not this time and there were no rank speedballs to throw a wrench. Shack went 46 in the Florida Derby, but Castanon almost stole the thing here with almost a 49. I think the jockeys with the speed had "don't be Joe" on their lockers.

When you turn on the pre-game show and see people who think pace is something owners do before a race telling us about "hearing the rail is bad", it's time to go long. Archaracharch was felled by a hairline, and early reports say he's going to be ok, but the trip he got was fine.

@Insidethepylons hit the super on twitter, and the tri. However, he is heavily bankrolled. You need to be to hit that sucker.

No one hit the super high five. It carried over.

2011 was was the Year of the "Woman-Who-Picked-Pants-on-Fire". It's like every chick with a hat that was interviewed on TV bet this horse. At 7-1 he had to be one of the most underlaid bets in Derby history.

Oh, hold it. Maybe Twice the Appeal was. He was 9-1 on the board and 34-1 on betfair.

Anna is now known as Rosie. She seems to be doing well, so I too would like to be known as Rosie. I might get mentioned on NBC like 386 times.

O_Crunk on twitter picked Animal Kingdom, but @joedrape did too. Who was first? We'll never know. It's a grudge match, but Crunk posted it before Drape's piece, so take that Mr. New York Times.

The two "take a shot because this Derby looks poor" horses - Animal Kingdom and Master of Hounds - both raced very well. It was a good year to spike and fire.

The $100,000 win bettor this year chose Mucho Macho Man. It was a good pick; the horse raced well. But I think he's probably listening to the Bee Gees on the way home tonight.

For me it was the year of the photo. I bet tons of races each year, and photos tend to even out, but when you get hit with Regal Ransom, Apriority and Fusa Code with supers and pick's in the balance, you have to think someone is a'gin ya. Other than shorting Jaycito, Uncle Mo and The Factor because of physical issues, I made very few good calls on the Derby this year.

The Pick 6 carried over for over a half a million. I'll be swinging at that.

I have no idea what's up with Soldat. I did not like him today, but he is a better horse than he has shown in his last two.

We won't read that synth preps can't win the Derby - for at least a month.

"Tired of trainers lying to me". Horse owners everywhere nodded.

I wish Sway Away made it in. The Derby either needs an AE list, or owners who scratch their horse on time.

I have followed betfair since pretty much their inception. I have never seen $237,000 wanted to be bet on a US horse there - ever. But I did this year. Amazingly it was on Twice the Appeal and it popped up at about two minutes to post. Here is the evidence.


Not long after, he took a dive, down to around 20-1.



The sponsorship was pretty huge again as Bob Evans tries to juice the CDI share price. I expected to see the starters dressed like Long John Silver.

There was well over $400k bet on the Derby at Betfair, but no in-running betting. In fact, I can't remember the last time the Derby was bet in-running. It might have been Street Sense, who traded at 9-1 when it looked like he'd be shut off.

I say it every year on this silly blog, but the Derby is fantastic. You could have people betting woman trainers, horses named after a disco band, the way a synth horse worked over the track, rumors and speculation, or the color of the saddle pads. It is simply the best betting spectacle in the World. I can't wait until next year.

Enjoy what's left of the weekend, and for those of you who have had a good betting weekend, congrats. Hopefully I can get your money next year!

6 comments:

Anonymous said...

I bet 4 horses to for $70 and 2 for $30. One of the $30 winners was ANimal Kingdom, one of the $70 winners was Maccho Man.... So we had two horses to cheer for during the strech run... which was great, though we didn't know which horses was which when the pulled into the stretch. I was reading alot about pedigrees on the derby site... and Animal Kingdom was just one I kept coimng back to.

Anonymous said...

I should add. I also had bet a big win on Regal Ransom the day before.

Tinky said...

With regards to your Betfair observation, some clarification is in order.

There was nowhere near that amount of money bet (or "traded") on Twice The Appeal. What you saw was the amount being requested at odds of 29/1, and only a miniscule fraction of that amount was actually traded.

In fact, if you contrast the before and after captures, there was roughly 237k being requested (at odds of 29/1) in the first one, and just shy of 236k (at odds of 25/1) in the second. This suggests clearly that at most, there was around 1000 traded out of the unusually large request.

Pull the Pocket said...

Tinky,

The screen captures are self explanatory.

I don't spoon feed anything here w/ betting and betting priciples, because the blog audience bets quite a bit of money, and some are heavy betfair users. I would have written that differently if it were on Paulick or some other website.

PTP

Tinky said...

PTP –

With due respect, you stated this:

"I have never seen a $237,000 bet on a US horse there - ever. But I did this year."

That is clearly incorrect, and I explained why. If you prefer that your readers not correct obvious errors, then I will refrain from doing so in the future.

Pull the Pocket said...

I changed it to "wanted to bet".

Fair enough?

PTP