Oaks' Done, on to the Derby

The Kentucky Oaks was an interesting race with many possibles, and one strong possible (off a huge fig) showed that was no fluke and ran beautifully for the win. The super and super high five paid well, and with three of the top four on paper hitting the ticket, it shows just how good this game can be with big field and big pool days.

Now we're off to the Derby, with another race with a big field, that will be hugely bet.

I, like most, am not overly thrilled with the field, but when there is $100M bet, you could card a field of 19 ants running around a donut and I could get excited.

My pick, if anyone cares, centers on Dialed In. I think he is the most likely winner, because he is the horse with pure talent, in a field devoid of it, and he shows me no signs of having been tweaked. For evidence of that talent I offer his maiden win below. You can not teach that type of athleticism.

I give him about a 27% chance and I would bet him at anything over 5-2.

The other horses I think had raw talent - Uncle Mo, Premier Pegasus and The Factor - are either gone because they are not right, or in the Factor's case, aren't built for the Derby. So this is an easy Derby for me.

Underneath Dialed In, I like Archarcharch. He has some go and seems to be versatile enough to hit the ticket. I played him underneath Sway Away in Arkansas, and have liked him for some time. Because everyone and their mother are talking about his post, it makes me like him more.

For third I will try Shackleford, who was pretty damn good off stout splits in the Florida Derby. I have several models on the horse in my jcapper sheets as well, but as he's speed, he'll need some luck.

For a longer one to hit the ticket, I choose Brilliant Speed, who I think is getting better. I also do not mind Baffert's horse, but he seems to be taking some serious money.

Some folks in interweb land are trying the question mark horses Master of Hounds and Animal Kingdom, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, like a team drafting an unproven high-schooler. I do not blame those folks in the slightest - if they are right, they will get paid, and in this type of race there is logic behind those picks.

But I can't get past Zito's horse, so he will be on top of every one of my tickets, and my key for the big one in serials.




Notes:

I watched HRTV all day today, because I had internet access and no satellite horse racing channel. I can see why TVG is liked by horseplayers much more. I found that HRTV is about as welcoming to the horseplayer as Michael Moore would be at a Bush family reunion.

There were a few good picks on twitter today for the Oaks card. Myself and "NJ Derek" liked two horses - a lot - together. They are both crossing the finish line about..... now.

I worked pretty hard on the cards today, but simply could not get a sniff. I studied the PP's, Jcapper, had a glance at thorograph, spoke with a good horseplayer (Theresia Muller from HANA) and even called horseplayer Mike Maloney to share some pick 6 thoughts. It was a hell of a good due diligence day, but I could not put a thing together. It's what makes this game great; you can dot every i, but you need that winner and/or that score to make your day. Maybe tomorrow.

A sincere best wishes and good luck to everyone tomorrow, whether you are watching as a fan, or taking $800 in supers each race trying for the score. Tomorrow is a day where we are all fans no matter who we are. I hope to see you on twitter, twinkying away.

Have a great Derby Day folks.