Doug Breaks Down the "Custom" PP's (With Vet Notes)

One of the more informative videos I have seen in some time was from Dougie Sal on twitter. 

It's in reference to the "custom" PP's post that's been floating around social media. There's a ton of information in the piece from someone who is pretty sharp, and knows the inner workings of the game. 

These PP's are fairly straightforward, however what's caught most people's eye are the vet notes supplied in them. The notes include dates of injections and shockwave therapy treatments. 

I'm no vet - I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night - but from what I know, shockwave therapy is generally used for tendon or soft tissues. It helps a sore horse and supposedly speeds up healing.  I don't know the current regulations, but with the "off date" listed on these PP's I would surmise you can't enter a horse within one month after a treatment. 

Injections are fairly routine, and it looks like we're looking at two weeks pause for some (which is one of the reasons a lot of trainers don't enter back within 15 days). 

Shockwave being a month makes sense, as well, because this is a pretty powerful treatment (again, as I have understood it). For Toronto area handicappers you may have heard the rumors over the years (in the wild west of the 2000-2010 era especially) about specific trainer-owned shock wave machines.  The rumor was they were using it on, or a couple of days, before race day; which is flat-out cheating and frowned upon for obvious reasons. 

I really liked that Doug broke this down, because this is the back side of the game that many don't know.  We've read some opinion about how we'd like to get rid of HISA, or regulatory vets, and we should "smoke em if you got em". But injecting, or shockwaving near race day, or the many other backstretch remedies to make a horse "go faster" are dangerous practices. Someone has to look out for the horses, and this is one way they do. 

Have a great Monday everyone. And thanks for taking the time to do the video Doug.

Biggest Night in Harness Racing Post Script

Last night's North America Cup card is in the books. With good weather, a decent crowd pumped $5.6 million through the windows. WEG reported the amount bet on the Cup itself was a record. 

As for the races .... 

Trainer Marcus Melander seemed to have his horses ready, and it started in the Goodtimes where Neighver Punt delivered solidly at a nice 5-2.  The colt raced barefoot, and cruised home nicely. I thought Magic Punk, a deserved favorite, raced just okay. 

Regardless, the Hambo winner likely raced Friday night at the Meadowlands in the NJSS Final. Aside - Big Ranger set the track record at Scioto last night, and I thought looked the part of a Hambeltonian horse. 

Lexus Kody is back! I had this horse as one of the four obvious ones to use to close out the pick 5, but the way he raced you only needed to key the big fella (which I did not!). Snubbed for HOY last year, maybe he's pissed. Whatever the case, he was super. 

Melander's big night got better when Bourbanista won the Armbro Flight like an 8-5 shot, but paid $84. In my write up I talked about how everyone was off form, and if we looked at the race, this was one of the few that was on form. I didn't bet flat, but I actually had the tri in this race before Bravo Angel got tossed, in what I thought was a typical harness racing tic tac type call. I guess I'm biased. 

Burke's Indiana mare must've warmed up like an old lawn mower or something, because that horse was dead on the board in every pool. I liked her on the form, but she raced blah. 

I whiffed on Miki and Minnie; she was super, and when she was chalk over the Per mare, I think that told us something. Twin B Joe Fresh took a ton of money (word was she tied up last week) and was bad again. Maybe this grand mare has had it with racing at age six. It happens. 

The board for the Mohawk Gold Cup opened with two main contenders - Menary's Ervin Hanover and Doc Moore's Prince Hal Hanover. The sneaky money horse was Lou Hill with Doug Mcnair. All three raced well, and a third over steer from Dexter Dunn got the job done for the fastest horse in Canadian history. It was another entertaining race. 

The anticipation for the Fan Hanover was pretty palpable for harness geeks like us, with Loua Dipa meeting Jersey sires stakes champion Be Perfect BG. I was surprised that the pick 3 money showed Be Perfect BG a slight chalk, which made me wonder if Loua Dipa backers were missing something. 

Perhaps we were, as it's possible she was a little flat, getting a nice trip to only beat the Perfect Sting filly by a short head. She paid a pretty generous 6-5.

Regardless, I am shaking my head at this race a little. I believe these two fillies are very good, and Loua Dipa one of the best I've seen in a long time, but The Stable filly was not too far back in third, and Sangria Summer was only another length back, closing from deep. 

It's an immutable truth for both breeds - when we see something truly special there are gaps in the field, and the top one or ones have separation. Although the time was fast we didn't see that here. I'm interested to watch these two the rest of the year. Is Loua Dipa just fast or is she special? Jury is still out, in my view. 

In the big one, Odds on Mr. Mamba, drifted his way to a half length win at 2-1, beating a game Brandon Blvd with Beau Jangles a nose back in third. This was pretty much a carbon copy of the elimination, with the exact same tri. 

I think Odds on Mr. Mamba is a nice, fast horse, but I can't help but think he has some physical issues. They had a week to fix things and it didn't look like they were fixed. He didn't improve third start off a layoff; he raced about the same as he did last week. 

Either way, back to reality: Great job you little ball of bay gelding fire. The Wrenn's are fantastic people. The horse tries his ass off. He can flat out fly for a piece. I am so happy for y'all. 

Brandon Blvd raced once again, fine. I thought he was fine last year at Lexington, fine in the Somebeachsomewhere, fine in his elimination. I was happy to see trainer Andrew Harris get a big piece. The barn drew 10 in the Cup, 10 in the Mohawk Gold Cup and Yo Tillie was scratched sick in the Armbro Flight. 

I thought Beau raced pretty much like he did last week in his elimination. He got a nice half, control of the race, and (in something we rarely see in this race) the back half was faster than the first half. Kudos to Bob McClure for a beautiful steer. 

I know WEG employees yell at me on twitter (not really, you're all nice) but if we're being truly analytical, Beau has kind of raced the same his whole life, right? Like we noted above, a special horse separates and the field is strung out. Beau did that against local horses like Borderline Mobby or Redland Rocket Man, but failed to do it in his Metro or Breeders Crown. Those fields were bunched at the finish and Beau felt the stick to win those races. 

This year a fresh Brandon Blvd can obviously go with him, and a horse who went in 147.4 last year in the confines of Gabeland entered against him, and beat him on the square twice. I think Beau's a fine horse, he's going to finish the year with a lot of money, he's game. He's a really nice horse. But damn, stop yelling at me for not drinking the Kool Aid, lol. 

I was sad for the Legace's because their colt just didn't seem to fire on such an important night. I can't help but think there are going to be better days for this son of Sweet Lou. 

As for the crop, I'm not sure if it's going to end up being looked at as one of the better ones. Again, when you're three across the track with horses another length back in 4th or 5th or 6th in major grade one stakes, it's probably a fair take. But, I still find it exciting.  I'm looking forward to the Meadowlands Pace. I might even bet Beau if he's a price, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it Randy Waples!

I hope your night went well at the windows and enjoy the rest of your weekend. 

North America Cup Handicapping

Since this is what I think is probably the biggest card of the year in the sport, I figured I'd break ranks with my usual drivel and do some handicapping. 

Perhaps a few of you thoroughbred players want to tune in and enjoy a big card Saturday night with your hitched-wagon cousins, so here we go, with the pick 6 from races 6 through 11 (and a few other plays). 

Race 6

This race appears to run through the veteran Stonebridge Helios, who is such a classy animal. There really isn't a whole lot of speed in here, so he should get what he wants. Dublin Dasher should fire out and get a nice trip, and is probably a threat to the chalk. Regardless, I have nothing inventive here. 

Race 7 Gr II Armbro Flight

I'll want to get involved here, because I think although potential favorite Yo Tillie has a gaudy win loss record she's never done anything special in my eye, like step away from good horses or overcome a trip. I can't help but feel she'll be one of those 4 year olds where the excuse about the "transition" is used, when in fact she's just not fast enough.

Last week was probably the right time to fade (coming off a crawl home in :28.4 the week before), but maybe we can strike twice and get some value. 

But.........

Where do we go? That's a problem because so many of these horses have question marks, especially the Svanstet trio who are talented but don't look close to on-form. Maybe this lowers the price even more on Yo Tillie as bettors default to her.

I will probably go to post 11, the trailing spot, for a poke on Miracle Maven. She almost beat Bravo Angel off a long break, then coasted home nicely against last year's Oaks winner Coversano, who I think is a nice filly and was ready for a good layoff barn. She tuned up with a qualifier that to my eye was just fine. We'll likely get a really nice price (I hope), and we have for my money, the best driver in the sport behind her to overcome the crap starting slot. 

Race 8 Gr I Roses Are Red

I think there's at least some chance Twin B Joe Fresh is done, and Miki and Minnie, who should take money, didn't overly impress me last week. Both can win I suppose, but I don't want them on my tickets. I think the race goes through Louies Girl, who I thought overcame a terrible drive last time. She should by all rights be a strong favorite; if she isn't, I think they're telling us something. 

I am interested in Always Dawn and Rodeo Drive Deo underneath. If either win, the pick n prices will be good. 

Race 9 Mohawk Gold Cup

It's always nice to watch the aged division tussle and the race office has carded a nice race here! The biggest question to me is: What price do we want to take on Ervin Hanover from his bad post? 

I think he'll take a beating like most Menary horses, and I think I have to use two horses instead that can help us separate - Calicojack Hanover (who I think could be better this week) and Coaches Corner (who raced well to be 5th in this race last year). I don't love either of them, and if Ervin beats me from out there, so be it, but this feels like a race I have to try something.

Race 10 The Fan Hanover Gr I

What a horse race. 

To me, Loua Dipa is the most talented horse in the sport. Lots of folks like to get caught up in win-loss records, but if you're gonna be called a star, you better show me something I haven't seen before.  And she certainly has. What horse in racing could throw a 52.2 middle half while looking like they were strolling in a qualifier? This is a pretty special animal. 

But she's lost a few and she's quirky at times. And her main foe - the 9 for 9 Be Perfect BG - is fast! I am so interested in this race as a fan. 

People will want to "get by" with both, but we can't do that, so we'll key the big filly. 

Race 11 The North America Cup Gr I

The post draw might've changed the mix on outcomes here (Beau's chances up with a perfect post, Brandon Blvd's chances down with the worst one), but I still think this is a very fun horse race. 

Mamba is obviously a very nice horse, and I can't help but think we haven't seen his true bottom yet. He probably met his two year old top in the elimination, but the way he did it tells us there's more in the tank. Third off a layoff should have him at his best. 

I suppose we have to caution this with a Harvey Packism: We never want to take low prices in harness racing on horses that can't make their own race. Mamba hasn't shown he's versatile enough to make his own race, and with leavers outside of him, James can get himself into a lot of trouble here. 

He also did end up in the 10 path in his elim, which often signals a physical issue. If he's under around 9-5 I won't bet win. It's why we make odds lines!

Beau backers have aligned that the colt has to be better this week, but I wonder if some of that is from emotional investment. His top last year was 48 and change, and he probably ran to it last week, while losing to two horses that are in this very race. Horses can be better week to week, but we need to also weigh the probability that last week showed us how fast he can go. 

The Ainslie "beaten favorite" angle worked long ago because horses who were beaten favorites were ignored the next week. This beaten favorite might even be favorite again. To me the logic is clear here.

In the elim, I think the value lied in pitching Beau out of the exacta. This week the play for me is to pitch him out of the super. If last week was his bottom, a Bob overdrive (something the trainer doesn't mind) could have him right off the super. Once again, if he fires a big one on the front and beats us - we tip our caps and turn the page.

My super will probably look something like 3-4810-14810-1247810. It should pay something if it hits. 

________________________________________________________________________________

I'm generally bad on stakes nights like this, which usually end up chalk-laden, so I look to the undercard.... but I'm not good enough to see much there either. 

Harness racing, much like Thoroughbred racing today, has a few sneaky horses every card, but everyone seems to find them now. Exactly Correct, years ago, I think would be a solid key in race 11, but this 4-1 ML favorite will probably be 4-5. I'll tune in and hope. 

I do see a potential chance Scorpion Seelster wins race 13 at a big price with Jody. Everyone will be on Borderline Mobby and I think he's a fine horse, but I hate unreliable horses at short prices. In the first race I like Crack Shot, who by all rights should be able to crush a horse like Waffle Blue Chip. 

Good luck everyone, and enjoy the great racing they have in store for us at Mohawk!