Not to Be Outdone, TSG proposes an Exciting New Bet to Save Horse Racing

Yesterday we all woke up to the exciting news that Turfway Park has created a new wager, the Octofecta.  

This bet involves selecting the top 8 finishers in a race, and if no one hits it, it carries over, and over, and perhaps over again. 

If there's one thing we players have asked the industry for lately, it's more high takeout, impossible to hit bets that the CAW's will swoop in to suck every inch of value out of on a mandatory day. 

Thankfully the fine people at Turfway/CDI have delivered. 

Although we might think "Mission Accomplished", Santa Anita is proposing to make this sport even greater by being responsive to our needs and wants. 

I have it on good authority that for the upcoming spring meet, the Great Race Place has created a new bet of their own. They've called it the Octco Octofecta. 

This bet involves selecting the top eight finishers in a race but you have to do it eight consecutive times. Is your mind blown? Mine is too. 

"We spoke to Alix Earle and other influencers and they loved the idea", said an unnamed Magna TSG, exec. "They believed this will really attack the Gen Zers who love lots of money."

The influencers have also agreed to make some tickets on the Tik Tok. 

"Win-Win for everyone", said the TSG exec. 

There are a lot of people out there on Horse Racing Twitter who are downers about the sport. 

Big Al hasn't posted anything positive in months, ITP is super cranky, Bucky is so sour on the sport all we get from him now are porn references. 

But this, once and for all, in this observers humble view, proves without a doubt that this sport never stops working to grow the bet; to never rest until it squeezes every last living dollar out of everyone. To what, yes, to make Horse Racing Great Again (#MRGA). 

I for one will be hammering the Octofecta at Turfway, and with all my profits? You guessed it, I am going after the octo-octofecta at Santa Anita. Let's roll. 

A Good Pod Listen - A Few Solid Gems for Players

I thought I'd drop a quick note about Chris's Sport of Kings pod drop yesterday for the Fountain of Youth pick 5 with DeRosa. 

With Chris carrying on this pod for Scott, there's been a slight shift where the guest talks about style of play and game philosophy and I thought Ed brought up some worthwhile topics. 

Record keeping can be hard to look at, especially if we're losing, because who wants to revisit a train wreck. But, Ed used Keith Bush's friend Claude to look at his betting from 2022 (downloadable at Twinspires and Xpressbet for example... sorry HPI guys no soup for you) and he says he learned a lot. His tip might help you. 

When it comes to tickets and selection, he also had a neat anecdote regarding his big leans on "A" horses in his grid. These are the horses that stood out to him, of course, and he found (so far, but I imagine this to be the case long term) they are his true best bets. 

I think we know our blink-type horses (if we're any good at all) for pick 'ns' are the drivers of our revenue. Sure we might've got lucky with a spread, but over the many years our pick 4 and 5 hits are horses we liked that we leaned on. Lean-on horses in sequences our experience tells us will be sneaky and good.

What most struck me with the discussion was what I believe wholeheartedly, and what I've spoken about as a trait of a lot of successful players - confidence. 

Ed looked at his record keeping and he knows what he's good at. Steph Curry is confident he can hit the three so a lot of them go in, and horseplayers, in my view, are the same. Ed knows what he is good at, and what he is bad at. It's easy to pull the trigger when you feel right, and know, in the long run at least, you're going to be in good shape. 

It's the same with pick 'n' leans. If you're confident it's a good play, not only do you have a chance at becoming a winning player by learning to construct better tickets, you also handle your losses better. It's an amazing feeling to lose and say "it was a good play that I win at, so it's no big deal I lost."

Anyhow, I thought I'd drop this note today because even if you're not handicapping tomorrow's solid GP card, I think there's some sweet stuff in that pod. 

Have a great weekend everyone. 

Monday's (Tiny) Super Spectacular Blog

Hello everyone. I have not wrote a Super Spectacular Blog © in a long while, and well, this isn't one of them either. But since it's been quite some time, I figure I'd jot down some random things that filled my head. 

The Biz Loves the Hard to Hit Bets

The $1 Big M pick 8 debuted on Friday with around $5,000 in the pool. The bet is seeded with $50,000, so technically, if you are the only winner early on, it's big EV. This is not dissimilar to the one at Scioto a couple of years ago that I and many of you chased from time to time. Regardless, a $1 pick 8 in the Big M races which can be amazingly curious and non-formful in spots, we could see some big pools sooner or later. 

Unpaid Plug

Chris's Bet with the Best book will be available soon. You can keep track of it, and other things, by checking out his website. 

Corporates Everywhere

I missed last night's halftime show with Big Bunny (Gabe Prewitt you're making me mistype this) simply because a guy I never heard of, singing songs I have never heard, in a language I don't understand, seemed negative EV. Plus, I did have some halftime betting to do. 

But, as many have pointed out, it's the way of the corporate world right now, especially in sports, and the NFL is probably the best at it. Namely, growing the game in all parts of the world, or with demos you don't have, is black type for the Wharton grads. We see it with Alix with an i at Gulfstream in our small way. 

I notice the NFL-MBA suits are pushing Germany bigly the last couple of years. If the overlords decide that next year's halftime show is Germany-icon David Hasselhoff singing the hits, it could be hard to pass up. 

It's Early, or is it?

Early Derby top ten lists are generally the worst. The best colts probably have not started yet, and recency bias prevails. Every prep race it seems is the next big thing.

This year, David Aragona popped Nearly into the number one slot, and I wonder, is this season perhaps different? This colt was dominant and seems he can go forever. 

Barn Raids

Rumors usually abound regarding the powers-that-be raiding barns and this past week it was no different. I heard from a couple of folks that they happened. 

I guess these "visits" have to be done in secret, and we're never going to know the details for sure. But they do piss me off. As one of the barns - rumored to be visited - got cold this week, what's real and what's memorex? When will the barn get uncold? If a barn gets cold isn't that an admission of guilt. 

So many questions, so few answers. And as usual, bettors are the last to know. 

Just Say No to Narratives

Trent Dilfer, Jake Delhomme, Rex Grossman, Nick Foles, Colin Kaepernick, Jimmy G and Sam Darnold. It could be a law firm, or could be a "middling to bad quarterbacks who never made it" trivia answer. But of course, each of them either brought their teams to, or won a Super Bowl. 

Embrace of Betting but Only if I say So

One of my favorite videos to watch from time to time, especially for the old footage, is Adam Sandler's (what I think was hilarious) The Lonesome Kicker. The NFL clearly licensed this video, but equally hilarious was their editing. 

"I didn't realize if I shanked one and blew the point spread some drunk guys would throw me into their hibachi after the game" was changed to "I didn't realize if I shanked one because my toe hurt".

 

 Now, of course, we can't turn on the tee vee for the NFL ten seconds without being inundated with gambling chatter. Point spreads were alive and well when Sandler made this video, and they're alive and well now. Nothing has changed, but everything has changed at the same time. Sometimes it feels like we're living in a simulation.

Have a very nice Monday everyone.