North America Cup Handicapping

Since this is what I think is probably the biggest card of the year in the sport, I figured I'd break ranks with my usual drivel and do some handicapping. 

Perhaps a few of you thoroughbred players want to tune in and enjoy a big card Saturday night with your hitched-wagon cousins, so here we go, with the pick 6 from races 6 through 11 (and a few other plays). 

Race 6

This race appears to run through the veteran Stonebridge Helios, who is such a classy animal. There really isn't a whole lot of speed in here, so he should get what he wants. Dublin Dasher should fire out and get a nice trip, and is probably a threat to the chalk. Regardless, I have nothing inventive here. 

Race 7 Gr II Armbro Flight

I'll want to get involved here, because I think although potential favorite Yo Tillie has a gaudy win loss record she's never done anything special in my eye, like step away from good horses or overcome a trip. I can't help but feel she'll be one of those 4 year olds where the excuse about the "transition" is used, when in fact she's just not fast enough.

Last week was probably the right time to fade (coming off a crawl home in :28.4 the week before), but maybe we can strike twice and get some value. 

But.........

Where do we go? That's a problem because so many of these horses have question marks, especially the Svanstet trio who are talented but don't look close to on-form. Maybe this lowers the price even more on Yo Tillie as bettors default to her.

I will probably go to post 11, the trailing spot, for a poke on Miracle Maven. She almost beat Bravo Angel off a long break, then coasted home nicely against last year's Oaks winner Coversano, who I think is a nice filly and was ready for a good layoff barn. She tuned up with a qualifier that to my eye was just fine. We'll likely get a really nice price (I hope), and we have for my money, the best driver in the sport behind her to overcome the crap starting slot. 

Race 8 Gr I Roses Are Red

I think there's at least some chance Twin B Joe Fresh is done, and Miki and Minnie, who should take money, didn't overly impress me last week. Both can win I suppose, but I don't want them on my tickets. I think the race goes through Louies Girl, who I thought overcame a terrible drive last time. She should by all rights be a strong favorite; if she isn't, I think they're telling us something. 

I am interested in Always Dawn and Rodeo Drive Deo underneath. If either win, the pick n prices will be good. 

Race 9 Mohawk Gold Cup

It's always nice to watch the aged division tussle and the race office has carded a nice race here! The biggest question to me is: What price do we want to take on Ervin Hanover from his bad post? 

I think he'll take a beating like most Menary horses, and I think I have to use two horses instead that can help us separate - Calicojack Hanover (who I think could be better this week) and Coaches Corner (who raced well to be 5th in this race last year). I don't love either of them, and if Ervin beats me from out there, so be it, but this feels like a race I have to try something.

Race 10 The Fan Hanover Gr I

What a horse race. 

To me, Loua Dipa is the most talented horse in the sport. Lots of folks like to get caught up in win-loss records, but if you're gonna be called a star, you better show me something I haven't seen before.  And she certainly has. What horse in racing could throw a 52.2 middle half while looking like they were strolling in a qualifier? This is a pretty special animal. 

But she's lost a few and she's quirky at times. And her main foe - the 9 for 9 Be Perfect BG - is fast! I am so interested in this race as a fan. 

People will want to "get by" with both, but we can't do that, so we'll key the big filly. 

Race 11 The North America Cup Gr I

The post draw might've changed the mix on outcomes here (Beau's chances up with a perfect post, Brandon Blvd's chances down with the worst one), but I still think this is a very fun horse race. 

Mamba is obviously a very nice horse, and I can't help but think we haven't seen his true bottom yet. He probably met his two year old top in the elimination, but the way he did it tells us there's more in the tank. Third off a layoff should have him at his best. 

I suppose we have to caution this with a Harvey Packism: We never want to take low prices in harness racing on horses that can't make their own race. Mamba hasn't shown he's versatile enough to make his own race, and with leavers outside of him, James can get himself into a lot of trouble here. 

He also did end up in the 10 path in his elim, which often signals a physical issue. If he's under around 9-5 I won't bet win. It's why we make odds lines!

Beau backers have aligned that the colt has to be better this week, but I wonder if some of that is from emotional investment. His top last year was 48 and change, and he probably ran to it last week, while losing to two horses that are in this very race. Horses can be better week to week, but we need to also weigh the probability that last week showed us how fast he can go. 

The Ainslie "beaten favorite" angle worked long ago because horses who were beaten favorites were ignored the next week. This beaten favorite might even be favorite again. To me the logic is clear here.

In the elim, I think the value lied in pitching Beau out of the exacta. This week the play for me is to pitch him out of the super. If last week was his bottom, a Bob overdrive (something the trainer doesn't mind) could have him right off the super. Once again, if he fires a big one on the front and beats us - we tip our caps and turn the page.

My super will probably look something like 3-4810-14810-1247810. It should pay something if it hits. 

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I'm generally bad on stakes nights like this, which usually end up chalk-laden, so I look to the undercard.... but I'm not good enough to see much there either. 

Harness racing, much like Thoroughbred racing today, has a few sneaky horses every card, but everyone seems to find them now. Exactly Correct, years ago, I think would be a solid key in race 11, but this 4-1 ML favorite will probably be 4-5. I'll tune in and hope. 

I do see a potential chance Scorpion Seelster wins race 13 at a big price with Jody. Everyone will be on Borderline Mobby and I think he's a fine horse, but I hate unreliable horses at short prices. In the first race I like Crack Shot, who by all rights should be able to crush a horse like Waffle Blue Chip. 

Good luck everyone, and enjoy the great racing they have in store for us at Mohawk!

North America Cup Thoughts on a World Class Saturday of Horse Racing

I found yesterday, from morning to late in the evening, a real treat. This sport, from the pageantry of a Triple Crown race, to eliminations for a set of very good harness races, can deliver a lot of excitement in one single day. 

Let's go to Mohawk! 

The tilt in the (sadly) elimination of the North America Cup was the talk of the sport. This race felt much more like a thoroughbred race to me, where horses are meeting truly for a "first time". 

Beau Jangles toiled at home most of his life, and only had a couple races against open competition. Indiana World Champion Odds on Mr. Mamba hadn't traveled. And Brandon Blvd was here last year, but to me his form cycle was over the top for the Breeders Crown. He was coming off five races where he had to go sub 1:50, and he shipped north from the Lexington heat. I think he was kinda chewed come the final. 

We were likely going to see these three good colts meet, when all three were fresh. 

I think this race delivered in spades. 

Odds on Mr. Mamba came into the race having shown a tremendous cruising speed, and he seemed to never get tired. He surely was a very impressive winner in a super-fun horse race, but I wonder if the glass is half full or empty for next week's final.

To go full speed in a harness race, things have to go very well from an energy distribution (fractions) standpoint, and this gelding might have shown us a kink in his armor when he ended up in the ten path. 

Leaving aside the fact that coming home in :26.3 while doing that (and showing so much speed and talent he was running over his cover while they're going 1:21.1) is freakish, if he does it next week how does he provide any value? 

Last night I bet him and took what I thought was an overlaid price; even being scared James would underdrive him, which I think he did. And this was only his second start of the year so he should peak in the coming weeks. But I'll likely look elsewhere in the final. 

Regardless, I am happy for this horse and his connections. I don't know if it's because the horse races in Indiana, he's a gelding, he's not bred like the east coast blue-bloods love, or what. But Dexter Dunn bails on him like he's discarding an old shoe, a bunch of people I see were picking him for third or worse last night. This gritty horse shows up on race day and says "take that!". Way to go. 

Beau Jangles is probably the first good horse we have had to judge in the sires stakes age, where they can rhyme off win after win against lesser, and our opinion lacks the proper perspective. We had a couple data points with Beau against open competition, but he did show us his bottom in the Metro, and I don't even think the Metro field was very good. 

Last night we would probably learn something for the first time, which to me made the race amazingly compelling. 

I'm a little surprised he did not go by Gentleman's Club faster, and I suppose even if he did, he just tows Mamba into a better position and still gets beat. But I am not sold we saw the best of him last evening. It was a sticky track, and sure, I think he was tired and loose-lined at the wire in his 49.3 romp a couple starts ago, (and Doc always has his horses ready) but he still hasn't had to be stretched out like the other two have. 

Although today we're back to reality and the superhorse talk has quelled, I think there are some signs he can improve and win this thing next week. I just think it will be tough to get a price. 

I'm too hard on Brandon Blvd, and it's probably not fair. But unlike the top two I don't think there's any mystery. He's a fast pacer who has had many races against others pacers who can go around 1:49. He was fine last night and almost won. I think the crowd had the horse pegged right at 6-1 (making Dex's choice look a little more curious), and I don't think he's faster than the top two. He can certainly win next week with a trip, in my view. 

The other big contender to me looks to be Sweet Lovin' Lou, and there's a lot of mystery left with this fella. Third off a layoff we figured he'd fire a big one and he did, with most of the crowd joining us at 3-5. I still don't think he's all there - he doesn't look sure on his feet to me yet - but wow, he's fast! 

He's one of these horses you expect to be great late in the season or as a four year old. The Swedes wait on these types and they only get better and better. I love this little horse. If the price is right next week I'll bet him, but I'd rather be betting Breeders Crown futures if we had such a market. 

We throw around "Superstar" in this sport way too often, in my opinion, but one horse on last night's card who hasn't had it thrown around much but deserves it was Loua Dipa. After coughing up a lung in her debut, she was given time off and she's back to crushing good fillies like they're conditioned claimers.

Last year this filly won in 1:48, which is surely something, but she did it with her ears pricked. That's something I've never seen before, male female, two year old or four year old. 

A year ago the locals were talking about Chantilly entering the North America Cup while she is all out in 1:49 and change, but I'd pay admission if this filly was in the Cup box this weekend. There's a strong chance I'd bet her. 

She, to me, is as close to a superstar we have in this sport.  I don't care if she has off-days and loses a race, because her on-days are something I haven't seen since Rainbow Blue.

On to Belmont! 

We can complain - and many of us did - about a racetrack bias, but overall I found Belmont Day really interesting. 

A good many sharps I knew were not touting Segesta, and that provided some value in the Just a Game. Finding Classic Q was one of my few successes of the "Stakes Festival", so there's that. 

In the True North there was a weird vibe on Book em Danno, where the traditional handicappers wondered if he had tailed off last year, and wasn't the same horse. Offshore completely disagreed - he was about even money most of the week, with Bentornato about 2-1. The odds board reversed these prices and Danno backers were paid. That's such a nice horse. 

I think a few of you liked John The Beer Man at a price in the sprint, and I joined you. He seemed to decide he was a steeplechase horse in the middle of the lane and jumped something, but I don't think we were cashing the win end anyway. 

What a performance by Englishman. The two horses he left in the dust are no slouches. Speechless. 

Golden Tempo winning the Belmont annoyed me for a couple of reasons, i) I make a ton of money if Commandment won and ii) I think trainers not wanting to run horses back reasonably are pox on this sport. 

But, taking nothing away from the horse himself - he just shows up and runs when they ask him -  wow, really nice job. He closed from last on a speed track and dug in like a good horse should. They could've went around three more times and they weren't going to beat him.

I do wonder if the track changed at all - migosh the kickback looked dreadful - but you can't take anything away from the winner; other than he was probably a Triple Crown winner if the connections wanted it to happen. My rant is now over. 

Have a nice week everyone!

Finding Prices are a Tough Slog & Wednesday Ramblings

Last weekend was rather gloomy in my part of the tundra, so I had a little time to watch along with the races almost all of Saturday and Sunday. 

For Saturday, I popped on Chris's Sport of Kings pod, and on Sunday, I noticed Ray and the fellas were chatting about the big Chester harness card, and gave that a listen. I found a common theme of late - primarily how difficult it is in today's game to find any prices at all. 

These guys are pretty good cappers, and like many of us who make cases for horses, we find some that have a chance, but in the end, the horses who are bet hard are difficult to beat, and the ones who aren't need a whole lot of luck to win. 

I see this with my Friday night ritual of going through the harness races with a couple of friends. 

The conversation is usually as follows:

"I don't mind the four in the 6th and the nine in the 9th, but I don't think I'll get a price on either"

"I like the five in the 2nd, but no price."

Our three picks will often win and pay $3.00, $3.60 and $4, while we're foolishly hoping for 5-2 (because, well, in 2010 or 2012, they probably would've paid $7 or $8). 

It's easy to blame this on CAWs, but I think that's short-sighted. I think trainers use condition books better now than ever, and racing secretaries are dealing with fewer horses in the pool, so the races themselves are set up for only one or two contenders. And most of us can find them. 

I suspect that's why we get so excited for big days in thoroughbred racing (it's the opposite in harness racing) - the biggest days attract some big fields, particularly on turf, and there are just more horses pointing to them. Big days can still be chalky, and it feels there's a lot of #theyknews, but at least they have a shot to yield some fruit. 

Currently, to prepare for a card in this day and age my handicapping is rather rudimentary. I find the horses who are likely to win are fairly obvious. Where I've been doing most of my betting, and finding most of my success is when I find something that looks interesting during a card. Perhaps it's a live horse I didn't expect to be live; in harness it could be a horse scoring down who looks good, or a chalk who looks bad on the racetrack, and I take some exotics with others. 

Just last week I did the work and found two horses I absolutely loved at the Meadowlands and it was a rarity -  they were so muddy, the prices would be good.  I was planning a sizeable bet on each, and said to a friend, "if these horses lose I am going to be down a ton of money tonight". 

The first one, at 15-1 ran, the second one at 5-1 was a complete no try and got hopelessly boxed. 

But I didn't lose. A horse I didn't expect popped up during the evening; a horse I was never going to bet an hour earlier. And I ended up having a nice night.  

Like most of you who read this blog, we're lifers. And we've seen the game become almost unrecognizable from yesteryear. We have to bob and weave and try to create and manufacture wagers more often and harder than we ever have before. Thankfully a win or two keeps us coming back. 

Notes:

It's human nature to like the home team, especially if you've followed a team (or horse) since they started racing, and this has traditionally been a force in Thoroughbred racing more than harness. From the days of War Admiral against Seabiscuit, to NYRA stans with Easy Goer against Santa Anita's Sunday Silence this has been prevalent and amazingly fun. 

This year in harness we might have one of our own regional battles with the Canadian colt, Beau Jangles, and the Hoosier colt, Odds on Mr. Mamba. Both fan bases are stoked to see their horse beat the other one. To my eye. Beau came back good, and it appears Mamba has as well after Monday's sparkling 1:49 effort. I hope both of them meet and the show ends up being as good as the hype. They look like two pretty good colts.

Leaving aside the top two, I am super-interested to see how Fragment races this season. That is one big, strong horse and he's clearly gotten faster from 2 to 3. This weekend the Burlington Stakes goes at the Hawk with Brandon Blvd, and the Dan Legace horse, who probably needs a little seasoning, but it would not shock me if he's a 1:48 pacer this year. That boy is quick. 

The North America Cup eliminations coincide with what looks to be a very nice Saratoga/Belmont card. This year we don't have the hype of a Triple Crown, which I think we would've, because I doubt Golden Tempo would've not run down Solo. But alas, this is modern horse racing. 

For those worried about prices, the contest space seems to be thriving. I chat with a couple of contest players who swear by them, and Zocalli, when he's not talking about bad 2YO horse of the year votes or the Knickerbockers, pushes the hell out of the Twinspires contests. Where are they for harness? I think it's too small. 

I watched (the injured) Brett Beckwith share some insight on the Big M feed last week. I don't think it's any surprise why the kid has had some success. He knows horses, and knows strategy. In my view, he's a  very smart driver, who has the world by the tail if he keeps at it. Get well soon Brett. 

Over at Mohawk, I'm very glad Mark Mac made the trip back up north. He tries almost every race, and with the addition of guys like Daryl Theissen, we're seeing more aggression at the Campbellville oval. It, most times, makes for better racing. Laying down for the chalk in a sport with already short prices (mixed with the sports' insistence on high takeout) is no bueno. 

Have a nice Wednesday everyone.