Record Keeping with Wagers Acts as a Good Mental Proxy

In Chris's newly released book, he spends some time talking to players about the sometimes/often boring task of record keeping. I think most of us know it's important, but it can take a back seat to the work of handicapping, or more often in modern betting, database tweaking. 

To me, one of the best things about record keeping, though, is what it can tell us as in bird's eye view. 

I recently went through my quarterly stats, and was pleased to note that what I was intrinsically feeling about my play was confirmed. 

First, I looked at my pick 5 volume as a percentage of total play. 

At Woodbine, my pick 5 play totaled about 12% of my total play (this may sound high, but in harness with mucho-chalk, it's a lower takeout staple). 

At the Meadowlands, it was less than 1% of my total play (0.7%). 

Leaving aside the fact that Mohawk races more often and they have two pick 5's a night, this volume difference is stark. 

However, those of you who play the Big M know full well that the first pick 5 involves amateur drivers and the cheapest horses on the grounds, often both. 

I'm not consciously trying to play less, but my decision making is forcing me to play less. 

In effect, it confirms my decision making is good. If I was playing a harness racing staple like a pick 5 to push volume, my Big M volume would be greater. I'd be "playing just to play".

A lot of the benefits of record keeping do not have to be stats-laden, mathy, wild exercises. It can be used to confirm if we're seeing the ball well, or not seeing it well; if we're pushing in areas we should not be, or underbetting in areas we need not to be. 

I was chatting with a professional player yesterday and he typed, "really, gambling is just a massive test of curiosity, grit, discipline, and work ethic." 

I think that's right - and monitoring our play, even as simply as above, can help us all become better. 

Have a nice Monday everyone. If you want to order Chris's excellent book, it's at the link above. 

Not to Be Outdone, TSG proposes an Exciting New Bet to Save Horse Racing

Yesterday we all woke up to the exciting news that Turfway Park has created a new wager, the Octofecta.  

This bet involves selecting the top 8 finishers in a race, and if no one hits it, it carries over, and over, and perhaps over again. 

If there's one thing we players have asked the industry for lately, it's more high takeout, impossible to hit bets that the CAW's will swoop in to suck every inch of value out of on a mandatory day. 

Thankfully the fine people at Turfway/CDI have delivered. 

Although we might think "Mission Accomplished", Santa Anita is proposing to make this sport even greater by being responsive to our needs and wants. 

I have it on good authority that for the upcoming spring meet, the Great Race Place has created a new bet of their own. They've called it the Octco Octofecta. 

This bet involves selecting the top eight finishers in a race but you have to do it eight consecutive times. Is your mind blown? Mine is too. 

"We spoke to Alix Earle and other influencers and they loved the idea", said an unnamed Magna TSG, exec. "They believed this will really attack the Gen Zers who love lots of money."

The influencers have also agreed to make some tickets on the Tik Tok. 

"Win-Win for everyone", said the TSG exec. 

There are a lot of people out there on Horse Racing Twitter who are downers about the sport. 

Big Al hasn't posted anything positive in months, ITP is super cranky, Bucky is so sour on the sport all we get from him now are porn references. 

But this, once and for all, in this observers humble view, proves without a doubt that this sport never stops working to grow the bet; to never rest until it squeezes every last living dollar out of everyone. To what, yes, to make Horse Racing Great Again (#MRGA). 

I for one will be hammering the Octofecta at Turfway, and with all my profits? You guessed it, I am going after the octo-octofecta at Santa Anita. Let's roll. 

A Good Pod Listen - A Few Solid Gems for Players

I thought I'd drop a quick note about Chris's Sport of Kings pod drop yesterday for the Fountain of Youth pick 5 with DeRosa. 

With Chris carrying on this pod for Scott, there's been a slight shift where the guest talks about style of play and game philosophy and I thought Ed brought up some worthwhile topics. 

Record keeping can be hard to look at, especially if we're losing, because who wants to revisit a train wreck. But, Ed used Keith Bush's friend Claude to look at his betting from 2022 (downloadable at Twinspires and Xpressbet for example... sorry HPI guys no soup for you) and he says he learned a lot. His tip might help you. 

When it comes to tickets and selection, he also had a neat anecdote regarding his big leans on "A" horses in his grid. These are the horses that stood out to him, of course, and he found (so far, but I imagine this to be the case long term) they are his true best bets. 

I think we know our blink-type horses (if we're any good at all) for pick 'ns' are the drivers of our revenue. Sure we might've got lucky with a spread, but over the many years our pick 4 and 5 hits are horses we liked that we leaned on. Lean-on horses in sequences our experience tells us will be sneaky and good.

What most struck me with the discussion was what I believe wholeheartedly, and what I've spoken about as a trait of a lot of successful players - confidence. 

Ed looked at his record keeping and he knows what he's good at. Steph Curry is confident he can hit the three so a lot of them go in, and horseplayers, in my view, are the same. Ed knows what he is good at, and what he is bad at. It's easy to pull the trigger when you feel right, and know, in the long run at least, you're going to be in good shape. 

It's the same with pick 'n' leans. If you're confident it's a good play, not only do you have a chance at becoming a winning player by learning to construct better tickets, you also handle your losses better. It's an amazing feeling to lose and say "it was a good play that I win at, so it's no big deal I lost."

Anyhow, I thought I'd drop this note today because even if you're not handicapping tomorrow's solid GP card, I think there's some sweet stuff in that pod. 

Have a great weekend everyone.