North America Cup Thoughts on a World Class Saturday of Horse Racing

I found yesterday, from morning to late in the evening, a real treat. This sport, from the pageantry of a Triple Crown race, to eliminations for a set of very good harness races, can deliver a lot of excitement in one single day. 

Let's go to Mohawk! 

The tilt in the (sadly) elimination of the North America Cup was the talk of the sport. This race felt much more like a thoroughbred race to me, where horses are meeting truly for a "first time". 

Beau Jangles toiled at home most of his life, and only had a couple races against open competition. Indiana World Champion Odds on Mr. Mamba hadn't traveled. And Brandon Blvd was here last year, but to me his form cycle was over the top for the Breeders Crown. He was coming off five races where he had to go sub 1:50, and he shipped north from the Lexington heat. I think he was kinda chewed come the final. 

We were likely going to see these three good colts meet, when all three were fresh. 

I think this race delivered in spades. 

Odds on Mr. Mamba came into the race having shown a tremendous cruising speed, and he seemed to never get tired. He surely was a very impressive winner in a super-fun horse race, but I wonder if the glass is half full or empty for next week's final.

To go full speed in a harness race, things have to go very well from an energy distribution (fractions) standpoint, and this gelding might have shown us a kink in his armor when he ended up in the ten path. 

Leaving aside the fact that coming home in :26.3 while doing that (and showing so much speed and talent he was running over his cover while they're going 1:21.1) is freakish, if he does it next week how does he provide any value? 

Last night I bet him and took what I thought was an overlaid price; even being scared James would underdrive him, which I think he did. And this was only his second start of the year so he should peak in the coming weeks. But I'll likely look elsewhere in the final. 

Regardless, I am happy for this horse and his connections. I don't know if it's because the horse races in Indiana, he's a gelding, he's not bred like the east coast blue-bloods love, or what. But Dexter Dunn bails on him like he's discarding an old shoe, a bunch of people I see were picking him for third or worse last night. This gritty horse shows up on race day and says "take that!". Way to go. 

Beau Jangles is probably the first good horse we have had to judge in the sires stakes age, where they can rhyme off win after win against lesser, and our opinion lacks the proper perspective. We had a couple data points with Beau against open competition, but he did show us his bottom in the Metro, and I don't even think the Metro field was very good. 

Last night we would probably learn something for the first time, which to me made the race amazingly compelling. 

I'm a little surprised he did not go by Gentleman's Club faster, and I suppose even if he did, he just tows Mamba into a better position and still gets beat. But I am not sold we saw the best of him last evening. It was a sticky track, and sure, I think he was tired and loose-lined at the wire in his 49.3 romp a couple starts ago, (and Doc always has his horses ready) but he still hasn't had to be stretched out like the other two have. 

Although today we're back to reality and the superhorse talk has quelled, I think there are some signs he can improve and win this thing next week. I just think it will be tough to get a price. 

I'm too hard on Brandon Blvd, and it's probably not fair. But unlike the top two I don't think there's any mystery. He's a fast pacer who has had many races against others pacers who can go around 1:49. He was fine last night and almost won. I think the crowd had the horse pegged right at 6-1 (making Dex's choice look a little more curious), and I don't think he's faster than the top two. He can certainly win next week with a trip, in my view. 

The other big contender to me looks to be Sweet Lovin' Lou, and there's a lot of mystery left with this fella. Third off a layoff we figured he'd fire a big one and he did, with most of the crowd joining us at 3-5. I still don't think he's all there - he doesn't look sure on his feet to me yet - but wow, he's fast! 

He's one of these horses you expect to be great late in the season or as a four year old. The Swedes wait on these types and they only get better and better. I love this little horse. If the price is right next week I'll bet him, but I'd rather be betting Breeders Crown futures if we had such a market. 

We throw around "Superstar" in this sport way too often, in my opinion, but one horse on last night's card who hasn't had it thrown around much but deserves it was Loua Dipa. After coughing up a lung in her debut, she was given time off and she's back to crushing good fillies like they're conditioned claimers.

Last year this filly won in 1:48, which is surely something, but she did it with her ears pricked. That's something I've never seen before, male female, two year old or four year old. 

A year ago the locals were talking about Chantilly entering the North America Cup while she is all out in 1:49 and change, but I'd pay admission if this filly was in the Cup box this weekend. There's a strong chance I'd bet her. 

She, to me, is as close to a superstar we have in this sport.  I don't care if she has off-days and loses a race, because her on-days are something I haven't seen since Rainbow Blue.

On to Belmont! 

We can complain - and many of us did - about a racetrack bias, but overall I found Belmont Day really interesting. 

A good many sharps I knew were not touting Segesta, and that provided some value in the Just a Game. Finding Classic Q was one of my few successes of the "Stakes Festival", so there's that. 

In the True North there was a weird vibe on Book em Danno, where the traditional handicappers wondered if he had tailed off last year, and wasn't the same horse. Offshore completely disagreed - he was about even money most of the week, with Bentornato about 2-1. The odds board reversed these prices and Danno backers were paid. That's such a nice horse. 

I think a few of you liked John The Beer Man at a price in the sprint, and I joined you. He seemed to decide he was a steeplechase horse in the middle of the lane and jumped something, but I don't think we were cashing the win end anyway. 

What a performance by Englishman. The two horses he left in the dust are no slouches. Speechless. 

Golden Tempo winning the Belmont annoyed me for a couple of reasons, i) I make a ton of money if Commandment won and ii) I think trainers not wanting to run horses back reasonably are pox on this sport. 

But, taking nothing away from the horse himself - he just shows up and runs when they ask him -  wow, really nice job. He closed from last on a speed track and dug in like a good horse should. They could've went around three more times and they weren't going to beat him.

I do wonder if the track changed at all - migosh the kickback looked dreadful - but you can't take anything away from the winner; other than he was probably a Triple Crown winner if the connections wanted it to happen. My rant is now over. 

Have a nice week everyone!

Finding Prices are a Tough Slog & Wednesday Ramblings

Last weekend was rather gloomy in my part of the tundra, so I had a little time to watch along with the races almost all of Saturday and Sunday. 

For Saturday, I popped on Chris's Sport of Kings pod, and on Sunday, I noticed Ray and the fellas were chatting about the big Chester harness card, and gave that a listen. I found a common theme of late - primarily how difficult it is in today's game to find any prices at all. 

These guys are pretty good cappers, and like many of us who make cases for horses, we find some that have a chance, but in the end, the horses who are bet hard are difficult to beat, and the ones who aren't need a whole lot of luck to win. 

I see this with my Friday night ritual of going through the harness races with a couple of friends. 

The conversation is usually as follows:

"I don't mind the four in the 6th and the nine in the 9th, but I don't think I'll get a price on either"

"I like the five in the 2nd, but no price."

Our three picks will often win and pay $3.00, $3.60 and $4, while we're foolishly hoping for 5-2 (because, well, in 2010 or 2012, they probably would've paid $7 or $8). 

It's easy to blame this on CAWs, but I think that's short-sighted. I think trainers use condition books better now than ever, and racing secretaries are dealing with fewer horses in the pool, so the races themselves are set up for only one or two contenders. And most of us can find them. 

I suspect that's why we get so excited for big days in thoroughbred racing (it's the opposite in harness racing) - the biggest days attract some big fields, particularly on turf, and there are just more horses pointing to them. Big days can still be chalky, and it feels there's a lot of #theyknews, but at least they have a shot to yield some fruit. 

Currently, to prepare for a card in this day and age my handicapping is rather rudimentary. I find the horses who are likely to win are fairly obvious. Where I've been doing most of my betting, and finding most of my success is when I find something that looks interesting during a card. Perhaps it's a live horse I didn't expect to be live; in harness it could be a horse scoring down who looks good, or a chalk who looks bad on the racetrack, and I take some exotics with others. 

Just last week I did the work and found two horses I absolutely loved at the Meadowlands and it was a rarity -  they were so muddy, the prices would be good.  I was planning a sizeable bet on each, and said to a friend, "if these horses lose I am going to be down a ton of money tonight". 

The first one, at 15-1 ran, the second one at 5-1 was a complete no try and got hopelessly boxed. 

But I didn't lose. A horse I didn't expect popped up during the evening; a horse I was never going to bet an hour earlier. And I ended up having a nice night.  

Like most of you who read this blog, we're lifers. And we've seen the game become almost unrecognizable from yesteryear. We have to bob and weave and try to create and manufacture wagers more often and harder than we ever have before. Thankfully a win or two keeps us coming back. 

Notes:

It's human nature to like the home team, especially if you've followed a team (or horse) since they started racing, and this has traditionally been a force in Thoroughbred racing more than harness. From the days of War Admiral against Seabiscuit, to NYRA stans with Easy Goer against Santa Anita's Sunday Silence this has been prevalent and amazingly fun. 

This year in harness we might have one of our own regional battles with the Canadian colt, Beau Jangles, and the Hoosier colt, Odds on Mr. Mamba. Both fan bases are stoked to see their horse beat the other one. To my eye. Beau came back good, and it appears Mamba has as well after Monday's sparkling 1:49 effort. I hope both of them meet and the show ends up being as good as the hype. They look like two pretty good colts.

Leaving aside the top two, I am super-interested to see how Fragment races this season. That is one big, strong horse and he's clearly gotten faster from 2 to 3. This weekend the Burlington Stakes goes at the Hawk with Brandon Blvd, and the Dan Legace horse, who probably needs a little seasoning, but it would not shock me if he's a 1:48 pacer this year. That boy is quick. 

The North America Cup eliminations coincide with what looks to be a very nice Saratoga/Belmont card. This year we don't have the hype of a Triple Crown, which I think we would've, because I doubt Golden Tempo would've not run down Solo. But alas, this is modern horse racing. 

For those worried about prices, the contest space seems to be thriving. I chat with a couple of contest players who swear by them, and Zocalli, when he's not talking about bad 2YO horse of the year votes or the Knickerbockers, pushes the hell out of the Twinspires contests. Where are they for harness? I think it's too small. 

I watched (the injured) Brett Beckwith share some insight on the Big M feed last week. I don't think it's any surprise why the kid has had some success. He knows horses, and knows strategy. In my view, he's a  very smart driver, who has the world by the tail if he keeps at it. Get well soon Brett. 

Over at Mohawk, I'm very glad Mark Mac made the trip back up north. He tries almost every race, and with the addition of guys like Daryl Theissen, we're seeing more aggression at the Campbellville oval. It, most times, makes for better racing. Laying down for the chalk in a sport with already short prices (mixed with the sports' insistence on high takeout) is no bueno. 

Have a nice Wednesday everyone. 

Beating the Game While Never Forgetting We're Betting the Underlying Equity

If you're anything like me, and if you're reading this oftentimes silly blog you probably are, you find this game incredibly fascinating. 

There's just nothing like sniffing out a winner, and there are so many ways to do it; some of which make an already confusing game ever more confusing. 

I was checking out a penny stock last week of a company I was involved with at one time, and still held shares in. 

There was a brief signal that something may be happening. I looked at the "PP's" - previous press releases - and there was nothing too exciting going on, but they did raise some money and were doing work on a project. There was enough in the buy side market depth where I decided to take a shot and sit a bid where I got filled. 

The volume continued, the stock was up about 30%, and I had to make a decision with completely imperfect information. How real was this action? Was it momentum traders trying a flip, was it something more concrete? 

Looking at the project and the work they were doing on it, it felt pretty unsexy, and to my eye, any news that could possibly move the market seemed low probability. I decided to close my trade. 

Today that looks smart. A press release was issued and it is kind of blah. The stock is down. Maybe there is something to the noisy trading, and next week it'll be roaring again, but I sold my flip trade because in my view the "horse" wasn't fast enough, and the price offered didn't match it. 

We notice this exact same thing every single day in horse racing. 

With so little public money, and so little bet early, the odds board is all over the place. Sometimes the pricing gives signal and sometimes it yields noise. It's our job to differentiate which is which.

Make no mistake - just like the trading on my penny stock told a story, so does your average odds board, from TO Elvis on Derby Day to the third at Delta Downs. Understanding how a race is bet is an edge. The people who can read it best are probably playing the game with pocket queens. 

But in the end, yes, we can let the market uncover things we can't see. It does a great job of showing us its hand, even though the sharpest money tries its best not to. And yes, we can let it guide us. But we still have to be able to spot if the market is right or wrong. 

Despite being a big believer in markets, I still live this game with a heuristic: I never forget that the horse I choose is the thing doing the running; it's the underlying equity. 

It still has to be fast enough to win, and I still have to be able to bet them at the price I want them.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone!