Winning Player Post Follow Up - 3 Building Blocks to Win More Often

I got a lot of horseplayer feedback on this weekend's post about how often different subsets of winning horseplayers end up green. Thanks for that!

I promised a follow-up, so here we go. 

I'd like to leave aside the volume players in this discussion, because let's face it, most people aren't going to start playing $4 million a year through the windows. It's hard enough to compete nowadays with CAW's flooding that zone anyway. 

I'd like to examine the lower volume spot-type players. These are very seasoned folks who've developed a way to beat the game. We can, in my view, learn a lot from them. 

Picking Spots, Keeping an Even Keel

First, these folks win only around 40% of racedays, which means a couple of things, i) they aren't hammering the chalk and ii) they have developed a winning mindset that allows them to lose more frequently than they win and still keep playing week by week. 

Finding spots where the betting pools have made a mistake - playing horses from say 3-1 to 7-1, and in many cases higher - is a big part of their games.  It's definitely a learned skill, but in my view, many people on my twitter feed have this skill. Keeping an even keel (and executing these opinions in the proper way) is the bugaboo.

The Defensive Trap

Despite strong handicapping skill, many are still underwater and I believe this is where the second point comes into play -- they've developed the winning mindset. And because they win, this mindset allows them to play free. 

What do I mean by playing free? It's quite a bit about what ITP got flamed on twitter about for so long - they don't care even one iota if they win or lose the bet, they just want to ensure they bet their opinion properly. 

That involves, as I see it, not falling into defensive mindsets. 

Here's an example:

When a good (but not winning) player sniffs out a 9-1 horse, he or she often plays it defensively. This involves boxing up the horse with the chalk, taking chalk underneath, or in supers, or tris, or trying to group it with a chalk double to get "extra juice" on the bet. I can't tell you how many times I see this.

It's exactly wrong.  

When I ask a player I know who is sharp who he likes in a certain race and he tells me a 15-1 shot that ends up winning, I look at who ran on the bottom. If it's a first or second choice, I know he's dead. If it's a 6-1 or 10-1 horse who looked like they could clunk it up, I ping him to see if he scored and I usually get back, "I got the exacta". And he doesn't bet it for $3 or because he bet a wheel. 

When we think about this mathematically it makes sense. We like a 9-1 shot, so we probably don't like the chalk. Even if we like the chalk some underneath and don't like anything in the ex, we should just be betting win. Why have a $20 winner and a $40 exacta with a short shot we don't really like? 

For further evidence of this, listen to the Sport of Kings pod with Chris Larmay sometime. When he has an opinion on a 10-1 shot, when do you hear him say he's going to bet exs or tris with the favorite? Never. 

The defensive mindset is strong and it's very hard to shake. These players never acquiesce to it. 

We Need to Learn to Race

For many folks, winning 40% or less of the days is not a viable path in developing the winning mindset skills the great players tend to have. Bankroll management and emotional control is a steely beast to stab on the jump. 

I have a couple of (stolen) suggestions that may help.  

Mike Maloney (for my money one of the greatest to ever play this game) has spoken about not having to big game hunt. With limited bankrolls so many players seek glory in pick 5 pools when they should be betting their opinions in pick 3 pools, or doubles. 

Personally, I have pivoted from spending $X in pick 4 and 5 pools to maybe 1/10thX on those pools. I play pick 3's, doubles or vertically at much higher rates in this new CAW land. The nearer the pool the more transparent they are, and I am eliminating some risk. 

The effects of this are obvious, and twofold, i) You cash more tickets, giving you added confidence in your play, and ii) your bankroll is less swingy, reducing the probability of tilting, and overextension. 

Second, and this one is partially stolen from ITP:

No matter how much we like the horse, we don't have to bet every pool around him or her, searching for glory scores. If the bet - whether it be an ex, tri, double or pick 3 or pick 4 - is not there, it's not there. 

This tip is personally difficult for me, even to this day, and I have to continually check myself. 

Recently I loved a horse which I considered one of those "bet of the year" things we tend to prattle on about. He was 5-1, and I frankly hated the pick n's around him, and didn't really like anything underneath. I spent oodles of cash on exotics anyway, because well, I'm dumb. 

The horse won. I didn't cash a single exotic. I wasn't even close. I made money on the race because a $12 winner is good, yet felt I lost miserably. I don't know why I still put myself through it, but no one said this game was easy. 

In the end, I believe that before we reach the Groovy sprinting skill and Affirmed mental toughness of the 40% winning days player above, we have learn to race. Learning to race means (in part) more winning days than losing days to give us confidence we can do it.

Sure we can split pick 6 tickets with friends, or take stabs at carryovers, but big game hunting or having to sweep pools because we love a horse tends to lead us into some very bad places. 

Summary

First thanks for reading and please share your thoughts on twitter or elsewhere, and second thanks to the players who chatted with me. It's a weird game. We compete, yet we're open to talk about this difficult, passionate game. 

Have a super rest of the day everyone. 

How Often Do Successful Horseplayers Win? I Found Some Answers

How often do you have winning days at this very hard game? I think it's an interesting and informative question, and in some cases I am pretty sure it can help us become better players. 

Over the last 18 months I have changed my style of play. I felt I had to with the increased presence of the betting teams. My old way  - playing more volume, sticking with my 2000-2015 thoughts of what "value is" - was passing me by. 

I went through some of my daily statistics and found this shift brought an interesting change - I play less money, but I win more days than I lose. Right now I am at about 59% winning days in the last eight months of data I looked at. 

This got me wondering. With different styles of play in this game, what do players who I know are successful do in this regard?

I asked two sets of players - the volume player and the more spot or value player - what their betting make-up looks like. 

The Volume (in this case) Dudes

"I have 48% up days and 52% down days," said one. "But the key is my up days are 1.5X the down days"

Another echoed that sentiment. 

"My key is, my biggest, best or average days are all bigger than my losing days."

When I was playing volume this was exactly my experience. And it makes mathematical sense. 

The risk in this type of play is that if you are losing so many days (180+ days a year of red) it's easy to go on tilt from time to time. I admire people that are able to control this emotion.

Spitballing, I suspect playing with algos or batch betting helps with this. You can check at the end of the day if you are red or green and don't get the emotional whipsaws. 

I *think* @dennycaps (Bet with the Best Pod here) fires bets this way, while conversely, ITP plays with pen and paper, race by race with mouse clicks. If either of them - or anyone else reading - wants to share their up/down day stats, or dealing with tilt at high volume, please do under the twitter post. I'm sure people would be interested. 

The Spot Play Types 

This was my most favorite type of player to look at. I have less experience with selective type play (although I have moved that way lately), and it's probably most-interesting to many.

I went in thinking that they must be winning at over 60% because they are i) very good cappers and winning players and ii) they're selective. 

The first two players I chatted with blew that supposition out of the water!

One player hits about 25% of his win bets, precisely because he does not wade into the chalk waters. And when you hit at only 25% you're going to have many losing days. He in fact says he's around 40% winning days and 60% losing days. 

Another player whose play I admire much echoed that. 

"I play with more risk, so it's about 40% winning, 60% losing."

I got some of my confirmation bias quenched with a third player - but he bets win only. He's an excellent player and he's not afraid to hammer the chalk when he thinks it's good chalk (and favorites are winning a lot more than they used to). He wins around 3 of 4 days. 

The one set of player - and it's a big one, CAW's - I did not do any asking. I always get a weird sleeping with the fishes feeling (only half joking) when I ask them questions like this, so I did not. But as one sharp player put it, they probably win north of 70% of the time because of their style of play and I think I agree with that. Once again, if anyone wants to share their thoughts on this, please reply to the twitter post. 

I think there's value in the above. If we delve into it a little, there are characteristics of play that can help every day players or weekend warriors get better. I'll share some of those thoughts in a follow-up post this week, hopefully. 

Have a very nice Sunday everyone. 

Horse Racing's Massive Big Tent

I was chatting with a friend recently about success we may have had betting a particular meet, and one meet immediately came to mind to me - a meet around 15 years or so ago, Sunland Park. 

I was playing regularly at that time, and I used to download every racetrack (there were many more then) and for whatever reason I decided to run numbers at Sunland to maybe take a crack at it. 

As I started to play, I noticed some interesting patterns. There appeared to be a strong bias, where in sprints, the outside speed would stay wide, then open up at the head of the lane, and rarely was beaten. It was like clockwork. After further investigation, it appeared the wind blowing down the back had a lot to do with it. Handicapping involved trying to find the horse (and jock) who would get this trip. It was remarkably consistent for over a month. 

I had no idea where Sunland Park was. I didn't know the jockeys. I knew maybe one trainer, Justin Evans from Turf Paradise, but dammit, what was my favorite race meet; the Spa, Ascot, Arlington, Del Mar? No, Sunland Park. 

Meanwhile, the day many focused on at Sunland was Sunland Derby Day. Prep season was in full-force. People were watching and talking about the Fountain of Youth, The Rebel, The Louisiana Derby. Some folks were posting workout videos of Derby contenders; some were posting pictures of trips to these tracks that they were especially making to cool the winter blues. 

Then came Keeneland. The poly was installed and again the bias was at times real this time for outside closers. I found the cheapest races on the card were the most beneficial to find a horse. Many were hoping to see the Wesley Ward firster or who'd enter the Shakertown. The entries would open and I was hoping for a claimer, trying to find a S or P horse with poly experience, and outside post and a standout late pace number. 

Either this year, or the year after I visited Keeneland where I found another big tent. The U of K kids dressed up nicely were everywhere. They probably couldn't afford a downtown Lex bachelor pad like the great Gabe Prewitt (waterbed odds, -180?), but they sure looked like it. They were not there for a Wesley Ward firster, and I don't think they knew a late pace figure if Professor Marshall Gramm explained it to them. But there they were - everywhere having a wonderful time. 

This game talks to everyone, and it caters to everyone. The fan has copious enjoyment, the bettor has just about everything to choose from. And I haven't even touched on the horsepeople who wake up every day, some since before they could walk, to care for the horses. To feed them and jog them and work them; to get their feet trimmed, braid manes, or give them rounds of Legend when they're off their feed. 

Horse racing has a ton of problems. We all know that. But attracting people from diverse backgrounds with a breadth of intentions wider than the Grand Canyon is not one of them. It's probably the biggest big tent sport the world has ever seen. 

Have a nice Thursday everyone.