Sunday, May 3, 2026

The Derby Day Betting Post Script Super Spectacular Blog Post

Yesterday's Derby Card is now in the books. 

DeRosa reported Derby handle was off 2%, and Cherie DeVaux won the big race with Golden Tempo. I like to believe our friend Chuck Simon was looking down on her with a broad smile.

Overall, outside the early pick 5, I felt like many of you that the betting day might look chalky. The Turf Sprint looked like a three horse affair with little to separate, the Pat Day had only two main contenders (and in my view it was tough not to use both), Rhetorical was a super wise-guy lean, especially with the trainer. 

Opportunities I noticed were twofold in the first half of the card. In the third, Vibe was signalled hard in the betting that he was going to be good, and I'm not sure it was CAW money. Ditto Tour Player, who was lights flashing and horns blowing he'd be very tough. Both horses won forwardly and were priced at bettable odds. 

I guess now's the time to talk about Elvis in the Churchill Downs Stakes. 

Earlier in the week I noticed the horse was bet down bigly, and we were looking at a board price of about 10-1. I watched the replays and was interested in the horse, and noticed a few non-CAW type players liked him in this spot. I wondered if this was a separator that could yield fruit. 

As we all saw, it was certainly fruit yielding - he won like a 1-5 shot - but my God. 10-1 was a pipe dream. How about 5.87-1 off a 30-1 morning line, with oodles of money coming in late in these monster pools.  

I'm not going to berate anyone for being upset at the late odds drop. It's super bad. But the pick 3 did tell us where the horse was going. And as ITP says, everyone playing it outside the US knew too. This is a self-inflicted wound.

However, it was incredibly egregious. In my view it was probably a combination of smart cash on the Pick 3 signal, and the CAW's tripping over themselves being overzealous. 

And, I love +EV's feed and he's a sharp guy, but I have a feeling this wasn't his best work. I'd suspect Zeljko miscalibrated his bet size and bet this too hard. Could be wrong, of course, I'm just a guy on the internet. 

Regardless, there was some value in the double (the CAW's likely stayed away from that one), but proving once again how difficult the game is - you have a 30-1 ML on Derby Day; you have a live horse; you have the best horse; and if you want to make a score it's not with a pick three or four - those were hammered. It's not with boxing with the chalk, either. You have to be super-creative by say tossing Knightsbridge and hitting a bomb underneath, to snatch an exotic. In essence - the things we do with 5-1 shots. 

I played the harness last evening, and we saw pretty much what we see from time to time on a card. In race two at the Hawk, a horse that was not picked anywhere with competitive but not higher figs, was bet like a sure thing and won like one while being hammered in every single pool. In race four at the Big M,  a horse who was coming off three bad lines, the latter of which was a 152 and change mile where he lost, was bet down to 2-5 like they have tomorrow's paper. He dropped almost 20 lengths and jogged in 1:49.

I get it. We all get it. 

But this is the Derby Card dammit. How much money do these people have in their accounts?

On the other side of the coin, the powers that be plastered the over/under 17.5% takeout bet on screens everywhere; for all I know, maybe even in urinals. 

Why, I really don't know. But as Scott notes, what a disconnect. Selling this to sports bettors is like trying to sell air conditioners in Nunavut. 

I watch the feed, not NBC, and I thought Travis Stone's call was awesome. I love people who take their craft seriously, and he does. 

I also thought the CD betting show was superb. Too bad Joe K was ill; get well soon. But nice work everyone. 

The Derby odds board felt a bit better to me this year. Sure the longshots were overbet, and we had the presence of Great White who was somehow 22-1, while being upwards of 150-1 offshore. When he was a late scratch for eating the lead pony being fractious, it depressed some of the pools. But overall the multi-chalk array felt better than usual to me. 

Other than the Land Shark, the only funny many found in the Derby pool was the pick 3 price on Danon Bourbon. Was it because of TO Elvis's win in leg one? I don't know, but whoever was hammering that horse, they were right. He was superb. 

I thought this was amazing. It's what owning or training is all about. 

The Super Octofecta - or whatever the hell it's called - carryover brought in like $950k of betting. It must've been Zeljko. 

No networks covered the Derby in Canada. We have like 12 sports networks and not one had it on. It's very odd and above my pay grade. 

Then again, Tony illustrated the craziness even for those south of the border. 

Regardless of the various gripes, I don't think there's anything like Derby Day. The colors, the pageantry, the great horses, the battles, the stories, the crowd... the everything. Win or lose, each and every year I love the Day. It's my favorite card in the sport and it's not particularly close. 

I hope yours fared well. 

Have a great week everyone. 

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Friday, April 24, 2026

What Can a Racing Gamblecast Look Like? Last Night Provides us a Clue

Last week after the upcoming demise of TVG (thanks everyone for reading, it was a very well-trafficked post) we spoke about how broadcast is generally dead, and new gambling mediums have continually taken over the space. 

I'm not sure I have ever been hit over the head harder with it than last evening. 

Rob, his young son and the Athletics' Austin Mock
I followed the NFL Draft as closely as I ever have, and I didn't watch one nanosecond of network coverage. While I had the NHL playoff games up on the main screen, I spent three hours watching an NFL Draft gambling stream on my laptop with the guys at the Hammer Betting Network. 

Watching this stream provided me a couple of benefits:

The hosts are professional gamblers who not only had knowledge about the draft and were betting it, they were in-tune with what was going on in real time. The networks were sometimes three picks behind them. They were tied into feeds that were reporting picks well in advance. 

This presented a betting opportunity. While the sportsbooks were changing their picks odds array four or five picks ahead, we were on the same level playing field. They were not ahead of those of us watching. So, if they made a mistake in their lines - which happened several times - we could pounce quickly. In horse racing we battle the CAW's, watching this live-stream, we were the CAW's. 

Of course, like any picks, these were sometimes in the "right Church, wrong pew", but I am pretty convinced I got positive EV on virtually every real time pick bet I made last night. And I am absolutely no draft expert. 

All of this was achieved by a few guys sitting in an office in Toronto talking about the draft for a sport they love to watch and bet. 

I love Mel Kiper, I love the high production value at ESPN, but watching it feels like the stone age to me after last evening. 

I'm sure they will continue to work on this broadcast - one minor criticism I had is they could've had someone scanning the books for lines on picks ahead, and offered flash opinions on prices more often, for example - but it was entertaining and informative, and most of all fun. 

I do feel strongly that in the future (present), network broadcast is not going to cut it for gamblers. It's great as a fan to watch a clip of a faceless offensive lineman doing a pancake after a pick, but to me, if I've seen one I've seen them all. I want to see picks in real time, not ten minutes behind, and most of all - I want to make some money. 

What this can look like for horse racing? As I've noted before, I am not Pocketstradumus here, so I am not really sure. But it feels like there is something there. There's some way to present this in a new way. We play one of the most exciting gambling sports in the history of the world, one thinks there would be. 

If the sport wants to look for a clue, last night's NFL Draft gamblecast should provide a few. 

Have a nice Friday and weekend everyone. Good luck with your bets. 

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Tuesday, April 21, 2026

The Horse Corporation Makes Moves (and so Do the Degens)

Death Star news hot off the presses -- CDI has purchased the 'intellectual property' for the Preakness (and Black Eyed Susan) from Stronach for $85 million (almost a whopping eight Flightline two year olds). 

What's that mean? I'm not totally sure what CDI does with it, but I think it tells us something about 1/ST racing, i.e. the divestment plan is very real. 

Corporate entities have the chops to run with something like this - Sony Music bought Springsteen's stuff, not @angryyankee from Jersey - while single type proprietorships generally don't. In the long-term it's not hard to imagine this working out for the Death Star. 

CDI CEO Announcing New Bets


In other Horse Corporation news, ladies and gentlemen, The Corporation has brought you new bets. To great, or maybe not so great fanfare, we have, for the spring meet, odds and evens and match up bets. 

The warm and cuddly one broke down the math:

That's ummm, not really very good. But in horse racing land, where the sport is scared of its own shadow, it's probably expected. After all, the only way exchange wagering was tried was if the juice was astronomical. 

It's very hard to understand, for me anyway, why each and every time, the sport takes zero chance on a wager. The odd/even bet is clearly targeted to newbies, probably playing the two big upcoming cards which make up most of the meets newbie handle. I get charging some juice. 

But the match-up bets could really attract some gamblers who don't normally play this sport. 



Different cohorts, the same price. I think they should write that on the sports' epitaph.

On the bright side of the moon, we have betting degen, the (second) best racecalling horse driver in the United States, and guy who sold a bachelor pad in Lexington worthy of Charlie Sheen's character in Two and a Half Men - Gabe Prewitt. He runs Hoosier Park, and he noticed (again because he's a degen like us), that the hole giving at Hoosier was startlingly insane. 
Gabe, unlike most, decided to do something about it. Because he knows the game so well, and cares about it, let's hope the early reaction from participants - Gabe is a #%$)@*)$ - is more mellow, and they try to comply. 

Change is hard in horse racing. Every new bet has to have the juice of a state lottery; every change to how the game is presented is either dismissed out of hand or considered heresy where the perpetrator should be burned at the stake. 

I don't hold out hope the Corporate Entity will change, but maybe little ol Gabriel can get the job done.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone. 


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