Harness Racing Greatness is as Clear as Glass

As we've seen this year and last with Sovereignty and Journalism in the runners - watching a couple good horses go at it is fun. We just wish they'd race more!

Over in harness racing, this year's big expectation falls to two untested three year old colts in Canadian star Beau Jangles and Indiana's World Champion Odds on Mr. Mamba. 

The hype has certainly already started. If you watch the WEG feed you'd think Beau Jangles was the second coming of Somebeachsomewhere. Over in the Hoosier state, the Beach comes in a close second in a match race (with Beau third). 

Everyone has an opinion, and I do too. Mine is: The chances of either of these horses being the great Somebeachsomewhere are between slim and none, and slim left to bet sports because of the CAW's. 

Why am I so sure? Because good horses encourage debate, while great horses end them. 

When Beau Jangles won his first real test by a half a length - the Metro - there was chatter in the handicapping sphere that if Frantic Hanover got out easily (and he reportedly bled) he would've beaten him. Not to mention, is Frantic Hanover even any better than the Ontario breds he's been beating up? Whether that's true or not is irrelevant, it was valid talk from sharps. 

When Odds on Mr. Mamba set the world record in 147.4, there was a horse near him and the talk was about other things as well. "Who is that other horse, was the track souped up, was the time real?" Is this horse that good? Again - we watched a potential freak horse horse freak - but these were questions that were completely valid. 

Meanwhile back at the 2008 ranch, it was just different. 

The Metro Stakes in '08 - the Beach's first real test - was turning to the gate and it featured horses who we didn't have to wonder if they were good or not - including several millionaires, and double world champion Shadow Play - he himself likely one of the better colts we've seen this century. 

Less than 110 seconds later there was no such talk about the big son of Mach Three. 

The talk was instead about how he made those other exceptional horses look like 3 claimers. The talk was about how fast he could possibly go. About the separation, about the rebreak, about how little was asked of him. About how much he could've won by; about what we just watched. 

There were no 'what if' questions because the true greats don't pose questions, they answer them with incalculable ease. 

Three year olds since Beach have gotten their comparisons in the media. Whether they be Rock n' Roll Heaven, or Captain Treacherous, and others. 

Often times we hear excuses for younger horses facing older - about how hard it is to transition from three to four, or how it has to be late in the year for a three year old to compete in these instances. 

While Captain Treacherous was a takeout reduction at 4-1 odds in the TVG against older foes, you can bet your bottom dollar the Beach entering the same race would've been 1 to 5, and probably an overlay. If he raced at four, we'd probably be mortgaging the house each race at 1-9. 

Age doesn't matter. Nothing really matters when you're dealing with a dominant animal with that kind of DNA. 

I'm very much looking forward to this season to watch Beau and Mamba settle this on the track. They're obviously two very good colts. Heck I'm interested to see any new shooters who wintered well join the fight, too. 

But with a full admittance I'm no PTPstradamus, I'm pretty sure that in six months, the Somebeachsomewhere comparisons will be relegated to the dust bin, just like they have every single year since that incredible animal set foot on the racetrack.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.  

Squeezing Value From Multis - It Changes Over Time

Playing multi-race wagers is a staple in the modern betting game, and like with most things in our vocation, it evolves and changes over time. 

This type of wagering strategy started with caveman tickets where we weighted everything equally. Then after Crist's seminal book, the ABC method took hold. In the late teens of this century, the warm and cuddly one was flamed from just about everywhere and by everyone in racing for sharing his weighted, DFS-type multi-race play, which added quite a bit of game theory to the mix (a lot of which is shared in Chris's excellent book). 

One plank of multi-race betting theory - which primarily fit with harness racing, due to its 20 cent multi-leg bet minimums and short prices - was taking advantage of people who spread, because they are going too deep in each leg, because they're betting not to lose. 

Optimal play meant we'd want to hit a sequence skinny and heavy, especially if you like the chalk. You'd get your value boost from the spreaders. This worked for quite awhile. 

I think that's started to change a little bit.

Last night at Flamboro, with their 20 cent pick 5 carryover, a 2-1, 3-5, 18-1, 1-2 and 4-5 sequence paid $4,405 for $1 (the parlay was about $250). The juicer was the 18-1 horse who was like zero for 30. Zero for 30 horses aren't being keyed by sharps on $10 tickets. 

At WEG, the 20 cent pick 6 with only an $8,800 pool would've resulted on a parlay price of $135 with the big chalk in the last leg, with the bet itself paying $93. The heavy chalk lost the last race, and the payout was still only 20% above parlay because the horse that beat him was logical. 

This is not a new phenomenon (with the shorter prices at the Big A on 50 cent tickets I think we're starting to see a little of the same thing). People (teams, sharps) are getting better and better at *not* spreading 20 cent or 50 cent pools.

Despite this slight pivot, I think ITP's methods still hold. To beat this game we have to "hit them where they ain't".

In a chalky looking sequence that we like (especially with a smaller pool) for a $5 or $10 base play, we have to differentiate when it's apparent, and be willing to lose our bet to gain value. 

Free squares, again especially in a small pool, might have to be sit-outs or be faded, where again we need to be willing to lose. For years I have been fading a 1-5 or 1-9 chalk when they are in leg one, but I'm starting to look at them in later legs as well. 

Time will tell how that goes, but I think there's mounting evidence that with less and less non-sharp money in the pools spreading like peanut butter, it's starting to make a lot of sense. 

Have a great Monday everyone!

The Derby Day Betting Post Script Super Spectacular Blog Post

Yesterday's Derby Card is now in the books. 

DeRosa reported Derby handle was off 2%, and Cherie DeVaux won the big race with Golden Tempo. I like to believe our friend Chuck Simon was looking down on her with a broad smile.

Overall, outside the early pick 5, I felt like many of you that the betting day might look chalky. The Turf Sprint looked like a three horse affair with little to separate, the Pat Day had only two main contenders (and in my view it was tough not to use both), Rhetorical was a super wise-guy lean, especially with the trainer. 

Opportunities I noticed were twofold in the first half of the card. In the third, Vibe was signalled hard in the betting that he was going to be good, and I'm not sure it was CAW money. Ditto Tour Player, who was lights flashing and horns blowing he'd be very tough. Both horses won forwardly and were priced at bettable odds. 

I guess now's the time to talk about Elvis in the Churchill Downs Stakes. 

Earlier in the week I noticed the horse was bet down bigly, and we were looking at a board price of about 10-1. I watched the replays and was interested in the horse, and noticed a few non-CAW type players liked him in this spot. I wondered if this was a separator that could yield fruit. 

As we all saw, it was certainly fruit yielding - he won like a 1-5 shot - but my God. 10-1 was a pipe dream. How about 5.87-1 off a 30-1 morning line, with oodles of money coming in late in these monster pools.  

Caws and @ChurchillDowns raped their customers in the 10th race with the 30-1 morning line winner(8). The winner dropped from 12-1 to 5-1(-58%) after the gates opened. The 8-5 exacta dropped from $259 to $108(-58%) https://t.co/VsLjuynT9V pic.twitter.com/RjrvUlKcQl

— Gulf-SchemePark(Decoupling soon) (@Jackpotkimm) May 2, 2026

I'm not going to berate anyone for being upset at the late odds drop. It's super bad. But the pick 3 did tell us where the horse was going. And as ITP says, everyone playing it outside the US knew too. This is a self-inflicted wound.

When the rest of world knows more about what prices American horses will close at than American horseplayers then American racing is showing it’s incompetence.

— Inside The Pylons (@InsideThePylons) May 3, 2026

However, it was incredibly egregious. In my view it was probably a combination of smart cash on the Pick 3 signal, and the CAW's tripping over themselves being overzealous. 

And, I love +EV's feed and he's a sharp guy, but I have a feeling this wasn't his best work. I'd suspect Zeljko miscalibrated his bet size and bet this too hard. Could be wrong, of course, I'm just a guy on the internet. 

Zeljko is easily top 3 nicest people I've met in my life, but there's gotta be like .01% of him deep deep down inside that is thinking "cry harder you fucking losers" https://t.co/Zhlzpi4hkw

— Plus EV Analytics (@PlusEVAnalytics) May 2, 2026

Regardless, there was some value in the double (the CAW's likely stayed away from that one), but proving once again how difficult the game is - you have a 30-1 ML on Derby Day; you have a live horse; you have the best horse; and if you want to make a score it's not with a pick three or four - those were hammered. It's not with boxing with the chalk, either. You have to be super-creative by say tossing Knightsbridge and hitting a bomb underneath, to snatch an exotic. In essence - the things we do with 5-1 shots. 

I played the harness last evening, and we saw pretty much what we see from time to time on a card. In race two at the Hawk, a horse that was not picked anywhere with competitive but not higher figs, was bet like a sure thing and won like one while being hammered in every single pool. In race four at the Big M,  a horse who was coming off three bad lines, the latter of which was a 152 and change mile where he lost, was bet down to 2-5 like they have tomorrow's paper. He dropped almost 20 lengths and jogged in 1:49.

I get it. We all get it. 

But this is the Derby Card dammit. How much money do these people have in their accounts?

On the other side of the coin, the powers that be plastered the over/under 17.5% takeout bet on screens everywhere; for all I know, maybe even in urinals. 

Why, I really don't know. But as Scott notes, what a disconnect. Selling this to sports bettors is like trying to sell air conditioners in Nunavut. 

The racing was great these last two days at CD and as far as I know horses all got home safe and sound, which is outstanding. But I really hope someone can use logic + reason to convince whomever that posting Odds/Evens in bright lights as the most important thing to see is wrong

— Scott Shapiro (@ScottShap34) May 3, 2026

I watch the feed, not NBC, and I thought Travis Stone's call was awesome. I love people who take their craft seriously, and he does. 

Relive @TravisStone's call of the historic 152nd Kentucky Derby. @Cisco pic.twitter.com/7KUCa4hkEo

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 3, 2026

I also thought the CD betting show was superb. Too bad Joe K was ill; get well soon. But nice work everyone. 

The Derby odds board felt a bit better to me this year. Sure the longshots were overbet, and we had the presence of Great White who was somehow 22-1, while being upwards of 150-1 offshore. When he was a late scratch for eating the lead pony being fractious, it depressed some of the pools. But overall the multi-chalk array felt better than usual to me. 

Other than the Land Shark, the only funny many found in the Derby pool was the pick 3 price on Danon Bourbon. Was it because of TO Elvis's win in leg one? I don't know, but whoever was hammering that horse, they were right. He was superb. 

I thought this was amazing. It's what owning or training is all about. 

Full footage of trainer Cherie DeVaux watching Golden Tempo win the Kentucky Derby!

DeVaux is the first female trainer to ever win the Kentucky derby. pic.twitter.com/XS3jFYSKso

— Braden Taylor (@BradenTaylorTV) May 3, 2026

The Super Octofecta - or whatever the hell it's called - carryover brought in like $950k of betting. It must've been Zeljko. 

No networks covered the Derby in Canada. We have like 12 sports networks and not one had it on. It's very odd and above my pay grade. 

Then again, Tony illustrated the craziness even for those south of the border. 

Great news: I can bet the race. Bad news: I’m apparently not allowed to watch the thing I’m betting on. pic.twitter.com/Tghu9TkGTX

— Tony Zhou (@ZhouTony) May 1, 2026

Regardless of the various gripes, I don't think there's anything like Derby Day. The colors, the pageantry, the great horses, the battles, the stories, the crowd... the everything. Win or lose, each and every year I love the Day. It's my favorite card in the sport and it's not particularly close. 

I hope yours fared well. 

Have a great week everyone.