Sports Streaming Costs & Racing Pricing - Both are Probably Built to Fail

I was recently wondering where to watch an F1 car race in the U.S. and saw it's on Apple, after ESPN lost the rights.  This app, to just watch a car race, joins many other subscription sites that are needed to watch sports. Like Amazon's to watch Thursday Night Football, Netflix's to watch Christmas Day NFL games, and Peacock's to watch an NFL playoff game (and I'm sure I'm missing many others). 

The U.S. congress has began looking into these practices. Leaving aside that I don't blame you if you cringe when the government does such things, it's probably a discussion worth having, right?

Americans are pretty rich (disposable per capita income in the US is around $63k versus Canada's $35k for example), but when is the cost too much even for them? One would think it has to come, and the market will have to correct. But there to me is the problem.

The sports broadcast market is so fractured, to change pricing and distribution, you have to unravel TV deals that are 5 or 10 years out, with five or six or ten different entities. And we can't forget player power - the first time the NFL salary cap is proposed to be reduced, there's going to be hell to pay from the NFLPA. 

Demand can go down and revenue can crack, but to fix it, the response will be like solving several Rubik's cubes (without AI) with your hands tied behind your back.

I can't help but think it's a lot like our sport. 

Horse racing moved to excess as a monopoly - we got tons of money in from government and slots, handle was growing with the Internet betting advantage - and nothing moved. It was virtually the status quo. 

Then the cracks game; handle fell, interest fell, and the sport lost gamblers to other games and vocations. This happened year after year. Every one of us saw it and lived it. 

And still nothing moved. Takeout is as high or higher than 10 years ago; than 20 years ago. Effective takeout with CAW's has risen even more than that. 

The retail player has been demolished, and continues to be, while the sport did and does virtually nothing (ABR party buses and Youtube influencers don't count). 

This sport - just like the streaming environment - is complex, with tentacles and fiefdoms as far as the eye can see. It can't solve multiple Rubik's cubes, hell I don't think it can solve one, even with AI.

For McDonald's, global supply change issues with the pandemic resulted in a 40% increase in menu prices from 2020-2024. Because consumers expected it, the gravy train of high prices helped profits at the food giant..... until they didn't. 

When demand fell, McDonald's (and others) pivoted. Suddenly, less than a year later we could order $4 meal deals for breakfast and $1 coffees again. 

McDonald's saw the change in demand and had no choice but to respond. It was fast and commensurate - it was exactly the way things should work. 

Racing could never have hoped to have done that. And, in my view (which might be worth what you pay to read it), logically the sports leagues will find themselves in the same boat at some point. The NFL and MLB and F1 are structured a lot closer to the 5th at Churchill than they are to a fast food joint. 

Have a nice day everyone!

Doug Breaks Down the "Custom" PP's (With Vet Notes)

One of the more informative videos I have seen in some time was from Dougie Sal on twitter. 

It's in reference to the "custom" PP's post that's been floating around social media. There's a ton of information in the piece from someone who is pretty sharp, and knows the inner workings of the game. 

These PP's are fairly straightforward, however what's caught most people's eye are the vet notes supplied in them. The notes include dates of injections and shockwave therapy treatments. 

I'm no vet - I didn't even stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night - but from what I know, shockwave therapy is generally used for tendon or soft tissues. It helps a sore horse and supposedly speeds up healing.  I don't know the current regulations, but with the "off date" listed on these PP's I would surmise you can't enter a horse within one month after a treatment. 

Injections are fairly routine, and it looks like we're looking at two weeks pause for some (which is one of the reasons a lot of trainers don't enter back within 15 days). 

Shockwave being a month makes sense, as well, because this is a pretty powerful treatment (again, as I have understood it). For Toronto area handicappers you may have heard the rumors over the years (in the wild west of the 2000-2010 era especially) about specific trainer-owned shock wave machines.  The rumor was they were using it on, or a couple of days, before race day; which is flat-out cheating and frowned upon for obvious reasons. 

I really liked that Doug broke this down, because this is the back side of the game that many don't know.  We've read some opinion about how we'd like to get rid of HISA, or regulatory vets, and we should "smoke em if you got em". But injecting, or shockwaving near race day, or the many other backstretch remedies to make a horse "go faster" are dangerous practices. Someone has to look out for the horses, and this is one way they do. 

Have a great Monday everyone. And thanks for taking the time to do the video Doug.

Biggest Night in Harness Racing Post Script

Last night's North America Cup card is in the books. With good weather, a decent crowd pumped $5.6 million through the windows. WEG reported the amount bet on the Cup itself was a record. 

As for the races .... 

Trainer Marcus Melander seemed to have his horses ready, and it started in the Goodtimes where Neighver Punt delivered solidly at a nice 5-2.  The colt raced barefoot, and cruised home nicely. I thought Magic Punk, a deserved favorite, raced just okay. 

Regardless, the Hambo winner likely raced Friday night at the Meadowlands in the NJSS Final. Aside - Big Ranger set the track record at Scioto last night, and I thought looked the part of a Hambeltonian horse. 

Lexus Kody is back! I had this horse as one of the four obvious ones to use to close out the pick 5, but the way he raced you only needed to key the big fella (which I did not!). Snubbed for HOY last year, maybe he's pissed. Whatever the case, he was super. 

Melander's big night got better when Bourbanista won the Armbro Flight like an 8-5 shot, but paid $84. In my write up I talked about how everyone was off form, and if we looked at the race, this was one of the few that was on form. I didn't bet flat, but I actually had the tri in this race before Bravo Angel got tossed, in what I thought was a typical harness racing tic tac type call. I guess I'm biased. 

Burke's Indiana mare must've warmed up like an old lawn mower or something, because that horse was dead on the board in every pool. I liked her on the form, but she raced blah. 

I whiffed on Miki and Minnie; she was super, and when she was chalk over the Per mare, I think that told us something. Twin B Joe Fresh took a ton of money (word was she tied up last week) and was bad again. Maybe this grand mare has had it with racing at age six. It happens. 

The board for the Mohawk Gold Cup opened with two main contenders - Menary's Ervin Hanover and Doc Moore's Prince Hal Hanover. The sneaky money horse was Lou Hill with Doug Mcnair. All three raced well, and a third over steer from Dexter Dunn got the job done for the fastest horse in Canadian history. It was another entertaining race. 

The anticipation for the Fan Hanover was pretty palpable for harness geeks like us, with Loua Dipa meeting Jersey sires stakes champion Be Perfect BG. I was surprised that the pick 3 money showed Be Perfect BG a slight chalk, which made me wonder if Loua Dipa backers were missing something. 

Perhaps we were, as it's possible she was a little flat, getting a nice trip to only beat the Perfect Sting filly by a short head. She paid a pretty generous 6-5.

Regardless, I am shaking my head at this race a little. I believe these two fillies are very good, and Loua Dipa one of the best I've seen in a long time, but The Stable filly was not too far back in third, and Sangria Summer was only another length back, closing from deep. 

It's an immutable truth for both breeds - when we see something truly special there are gaps in the field, and the top one or ones have separation. Although the time was fast we didn't see that here. I'm interested to watch these two the rest of the year. Is Loua Dipa just fast or is she special? Jury is still out, in my view. 

In the big one, Odds on Mr. Mamba, drifted his way to a half length win at 2-1, beating a game Brandon Blvd with Beau Jangles a nose back in third. This was pretty much a carbon copy of the elimination, with the exact same tri. 

I think Odds on Mr. Mamba is a nice, fast horse, but I can't help but think he has some physical issues. They had a week to fix things and it didn't look like they were fixed. He didn't improve third start off a layoff; he raced about the same as he did last week. 

Either way, back to reality: Great job you little ball of bay gelding fire. The Wrenn's are fantastic people. The horse tries his ass off. He can flat out fly for a piece. I am so happy for y'all. 

Brandon Blvd raced once again, fine. I thought he was fine last year at Lexington, fine in the Somebeachsomewhere, fine in his elimination. I was happy to see trainer Andrew Harris get a big piece. The barn drew 10 in the Cup, 10 in the Mohawk Gold Cup and Yo Tillie was scratched sick in the Armbro Flight. 

I thought Beau raced pretty much like he did last week in his elimination. He got a nice half, control of the race, and (in something we rarely see in this race) the back half was faster than the first half. Kudos to Bob McClure for a beautiful steer. 

I know WEG employees yell at me on twitter (not really, you're all nice) but if we're being truly analytical, Beau has kind of raced the same his whole life, right? Like we noted above, a special horse separates and the field is strung out. Beau did that against local horses like Borderline Mobby or Redland Rocket Man, but failed to do it in his Metro or Breeders Crown. Those fields were bunched at the finish and Beau felt the stick to win those races. 

This year a fresh Brandon Blvd can obviously go with him, and a horse who went in 147.4 last year in the confines of Gabeland entered against him, and beat him on the square twice. I think Beau's a fine horse, he's going to finish the year with a lot of money, he's game. He's a really nice horse. But damn, stop yelling at me for not drinking the Kool Aid, lol. 

I was sad for the Legace's because their colt just didn't seem to fire on such an important night. I can't help but think there are going to be better days for this son of Sweet Lou. 

As for the crop, I'm not sure if it's going to end up being looked at as one of the better ones. Again, when you're three across the track with horses another length back in 4th or 5th or 6th in major grade one stakes, it's probably a fair take. But, I still find it exciting.  I'm looking forward to the Meadowlands Pace. I might even bet Beau if he's a price, so stick that in your pipe and smoke it Randy Waples!

I hope your night went well at the windows and enjoy the rest of your weekend.