Monday, April 22, 2024

If I'm Using Fair Odds I'm Doing it Wrong

Hat tip to @dennycaps1 (he's talked about similar to this on his feed), but happy to report that my fair odds lines are going in the dust bin. 

Yesterday at Keeneland I liked two horses. 

In race three, we had a Thomas filly, second start off a layoff, returning to turf. The work tab looked solid, the field didn't look like much, there was what looked like cheap speed, and the 8-1 morning line should provide some value in multis. I made the horse 4-1 to 9-2. 

In race seven, a 10 furlong allowance, I liked the six. Mott's shipper I felt would be overbet, and this trainer clicked on Saturday with a nice win. I expected this horse to be very good and made her about 3-1 off her 9-2 morning line. 

In race three the 8-1 morning line horse was well bet in all pools. She opened at 4-1 and was hit late to 3-1. She was below my fair odds line. 

In race 7, my pick opened fairly strong, the horse I was fading was dead on the board, but my filly drifted and was fourth choice in the multis. She was 5-1 near post time, well above my fair odds line. 

What did I end up doing?

I bet large on the horse below my odds line in race 3, and didn't bet the horse that was well above my odds line in race 7. 

The horse in race 3 ran amazing, getting in traffic trouble, coming second. Gold checkmark. 

The horse in race seven ran as bad as a horse can, making a little move around the turn and cantered across the finish line in dead last. 

It ain't our first rodeo in the modern racing game. 

This game has absolutely changed as lines get sharper, and as lines get sharper, in my view at least, we have to use them 180 degrees differently than Mark Cramer and others taught us a generation ago. 

Have a nice Monday everyone. 

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