Like most of you I enjoy looking at the gamble, and that's brought me into the sports betting world for some time now.
As betting on, in this case, football is concerned, we've seen more and more interest with the proliferation of legal gambling in both the U.S. and Canada. This interest has spawned a lot of discussion. One of those recently struck me.
That’s the ENTIRE point of this discussion, to predict future success. PFF and other sites/metrics don’t exist to tell you “X had 2 sacks” we already know that. They’re trying to fight through the randomness and tell you who’s actually producing. Simple stats tell untrue stories. https://t.co/gviTpbEHVZ— Mitchell Schwartz (@MitchSchwartz71) September 21, 2023
Here we have a bettor discount metrics that go beyond the published statistics. These are advanced metrics, like pass rush win rates, yards per play, removing turnovers from expected points or yards, etc. Mitchell forcefully says "simple stats tell untrue stories."
Of course that's true! Yet time and time again - peruse the interwebs for these discussions and you will find them from all types of sports bettors - you'll see or get an argument.
Meanwhile back at the track, Andy Beyer was writing about fancy stats and the untruth of the top line wins and losses or final times since the 1970's when he devised a better speed figure. These final times have morphed into performance figures and more with Thorograph and others.
Everyone with a hope to beat the game has been looking at trips on replay and adjusting final times and figures based on it.
The often used TimeformUS pace projector is exactly about projecting future success and we'd never think of arguing about it.
*Everything* we do as horseplayers is about predicting future success based on the event (i.e. the race), and discounting (or enhancing) previous factors in the PP's.
I think horseplayers can learn a lot from good sports bettors. Even many casual sports bettors pay attention to 4.5% win takeout and line shopping and money management, for example, and we all should too.
But boy can sports bettors learn a lot from horseplayers. When it comes to match ups, unique race modeling, hidden positives and scoping what's *not* in the PP's, in my view, from the most casual player to the most seasoned, we're light years ahead.
Have a nice weekend everyone.