Finding Prices are a Tough Slog & Wednesday Ramblings

Last weekend was rather gloomy in my part of the tundra, so I had a little time to watch along with the races almost all of Saturday and Sunday. 

For Saturday, I popped on Chris's Sport of Kings pod, and on Sunday, I noticed Ray and the fellas were chatting about the big Chester harness card, and gave that a listen. I found a common theme of late - primarily how difficult it is in today's game to find any prices at all. 

These guys are pretty good cappers, and like many of us who make cases for horses, we find some that have a chance, but in the end, the horses who are bet hard are difficult to beat, and the ones who aren't need a whole lot of luck to win. 

I see this with my Friday night ritual of going through the harness races with a couple of friends. 

The conversation is usually as follows:

"I don't mind the four in the 6th and the nine in the 9th, but I don't think I'll get a price on either"

"I like the five in the 2nd, but no price."

Our three picks will often win and pay $3.00, $3.60 and $4, while we're foolishly hoping for 5-2 (because, well, in 2010 or 2012, they probably would've paid $7 or $8). 

It's easy to blame this on CAWs, but I think that's short-sighted. I think trainers use condition books better now than ever, and racing secretaries are dealing with fewer horses in the pool, so the races themselves are set up for only one or two contenders. And most of us can find them. 

I suspect that's why we get so excited for big days in thoroughbred racing (it's the opposite in harness racing) - the biggest days attract some big fields, particularly on turf, and there are just more horses pointing to them. Big days can still be chalky, and it feels there's a lot of #theyknews, but at least they have a shot to yield some fruit. 

Currently, to prepare for a card in this day and age my handicapping is rather rudimentary. I find the horses who are likely to win are fairly obvious. Where I've been doing most of my betting, and finding most of my success is when I find something that looks interesting during a card. Perhaps it's a live horse I didn't expect to be live; in harness it could be a horse scoring down who looks good, or a chalk who looks bad on the racetrack, and I take some exotics with others. 

Just last week I did the work and found two horses I absolutely loved at the Meadowlands and it was a rarity -  they were so muddy, the prices would be good.  I was planning a sizeable bet on each, and said to a friend, "if these horses lose I am going to be down a ton of money tonight". 

The first one, at 15-1 ran, the second one at 5-1 was a complete no try and got hopelessly boxed. 

But I didn't lose. A horse I didn't expect popped up during the evening; a horse I was never going to bet an hour earlier. And I ended up having a nice night.  

Like most of you who read this blog, we're lifers. And we've seen the game become almost unrecognizable from yesteryear. We have to bob and weave and try to create and manufacture wagers more often and harder than we ever have before. Thankfully a win or two keeps us coming back. 

Notes:

It's human nature to like the home team, especially if you've followed a team (or horse) since they started racing, and this has traditionally been a force in Thoroughbred racing more than harness. From the days of War Admiral against Seabiscuit, to NYRA stans with Easy Goer against Santa Anita's Sunday Silence this has been prevalent and amazingly fun. 

This year in harness we might have one of our own regional battles with the Canadian colt, Beau Jangles, and the Hoosier colt, Odds on Mr. Mamba. Both fan bases are stoked to see their horse beat the other one. To my eye. Beau came back good, and it appears Mamba has as well after Monday's sparkling 1:49 effort. I hope both of them meet and the show ends up being as good as the hype. They look like two pretty good colts.

Leaving aside the top two, I am super-interested to see how Fragment races this season. That is one big, strong horse and he's clearly gotten faster from 2 to 3. This weekend the Burlington Stakes goes at the Hawk with Brandon Blvd, and the Dan Legace horse, who probably needs a little seasoning, but it would not shock me if he's a 1:48 pacer this year. That boy is quick. 

The North America Cup eliminations coincide with what looks to be a very nice Saratoga/Belmont card. This year we don't have the hype of a Triple Crown, which I think we would've, because I doubt Golden Tempo would've not run down Solo. But alas, this is modern horse racing. 

For those worried about prices, the contest space seems to be thriving. I chat with a couple of contest players who swear by them, and Zocalli, when he's not talking about bad 2YO horse of the year votes or the Knickerbockers, pushes the hell out of the Twinspires contests. Where are they for harness? I think it's too small. 

I watched (the injured) Brett Beckwith share some insight on the Big M feed last week. I don't think it's any surprise why the kid has had some success. He knows horses, and knows strategy. In my view, he's a  very smart driver, who has the world by the tail if he keeps at it. Get well soon Brett. 

Over at Mohawk, I'm very glad Mark Mac made the trip back up north. He tries almost every race, and with the addition of guys like Daryl Theissen, we're seeing more aggression at the Campbellville oval. It, most times, makes for better racing. Laying down for the chalk in a sport with already short prices (mixed with the sports' insistence on high takeout) is no bueno. 

Have a nice Wednesday everyone. 

Beating the Game While Never Forgetting We're Betting the Underlying Equity

If you're anything like me, and if you're reading this oftentimes silly blog you probably are, you find this game incredibly fascinating. 

There's just nothing like sniffing out a winner, and there are so many ways to do it; some of which make an already confusing game ever more confusing. 

I was checking out a penny stock last week of a company I was involved with at one time, and still held shares in. 

There was a brief signal that something may be happening. I looked at the "PP's" - previous press releases - and there was nothing too exciting going on, but they did raise some money and were doing work on a project. There was enough in the buy side market depth where I decided to take a shot and sit a bid where I got filled. 

The volume continued, the stock was up about 30%, and I had to make a decision with completely imperfect information. How real was this action? Was it momentum traders trying a flip, was it something more concrete? 

Looking at the project and the work they were doing on it, it felt pretty unsexy, and to my eye, any news that could possibly move the market seemed low probability. I decided to close my trade. 

Today that looks smart. A press release was issued and it is kind of blah. The stock is down. Maybe there is something to the noisy trading, and next week it'll be roaring again, but I sold my flip trade because in my view the "horse" wasn't fast enough, and the price offered didn't match it. 

We notice this exact same thing every single day in horse racing. 

With so little public money, and so little bet early, the odds board is all over the place. Sometimes the pricing gives signal and sometimes it yields noise. It's our job to differentiate which is which.

Make no mistake - just like the trading on my penny stock told a story, so does your average odds board, from TO Elvis on Derby Day to the third at Delta Downs. Understanding how a race is bet is an edge. The people who can read it best are probably playing the game with pocket queens. 

But in the end, yes, we can let the market uncover things we can't see. It does a great job of showing us its hand, even though the sharpest money tries its best not to. And yes, we can let it guide us. But we still have to be able to spot if the market is right or wrong. 

Despite being a big believer in markets, I still live this game with a heuristic: I never forget that the horse I choose is the thing doing the running; it's the underlying equity. 

It still has to be fast enough to win, and I still have to be able to bet them at the price I want them.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone!

Harness Racing Greatness is as Clear as Glass

As we've seen this year and last with Sovereignty and Journalism in the runners - watching a couple good horses go at it is fun. We just wish they'd race more!

Over in harness racing, this year's big expectation falls to two untested three year old colts in Canadian star Beau Jangles and Indiana's World Champion Odds on Mr. Mamba. 

The hype has certainly already started. If you watch the WEG feed you'd think Beau Jangles was the second coming of Somebeachsomewhere. Over in the Hoosier state, the Beach comes in a close second in a match race (with Beau third). 

Everyone has an opinion, and I do too. Mine is: The chances of either of these horses being the great Somebeachsomewhere are between slim and none, and slim left to bet sports because of the CAW's. 

Why am I so sure? Because good horses encourage debate, while great horses end them. 

When Beau Jangles won his first real test by a half a length - the Metro - there was chatter in the handicapping sphere that if Frantic Hanover got out easily (and he reportedly bled) he would've beaten him. Not to mention, is Frantic Hanover even any better than the Ontario breds he's been beating up? Whether that's true or not is irrelevant, it was valid talk from sharps. 

When Odds on Mr. Mamba set the world record in 147.4, there was a horse near him and the talk was about other things as well. "Who is that other horse, was the track souped up, was the time real?" Is this horse that good? Again - we watched a potential freak horse horse freak - but these were questions that were completely valid. 

Meanwhile back at the 2008 ranch, it was just different. 

The Metro Stakes in '08 - the Beach's first real test - was turning to the gate and it featured horses who we didn't have to wonder if they were good or not - including several millionaires, and double world champion Shadow Play - he himself likely one of the better colts we've seen this century. 

Less than 110 seconds later there was no such talk about the big son of Mach Three. 

The talk was instead about how he made those other exceptional horses look like 3 claimers. The talk was about how fast he could possibly go. About the separation, about the rebreak, about how little was asked of him. About how much he could've won by; about what we just watched. 

There were no 'what if' questions because the true greats don't pose questions, they answer them with incalculable ease. 

Three year olds since Beach have gotten their comparisons in the media. Whether they be Rock n' Roll Heaven, or Captain Treacherous, and others. 

Often times we hear excuses for younger horses facing older - about how hard it is to transition from three to four, or how it has to be late in the year for a three year old to compete in these instances. 

While Captain Treacherous was a takeout reduction at 4-1 odds in the TVG against older foes, you can bet your bottom dollar the Beach entering the same race would've been 1 to 5, and probably an overlay. If he raced at four, we'd probably be mortgaging the house each race at 1-9. 

Age doesn't matter. Nothing really matters when you're dealing with a dominant animal with that kind of DNA. 

I'm very much looking forward to this season to watch Beau and Mamba settle this on the track. They're obviously two very good colts. Heck I'm interested to see any new shooters who wintered well join the fight, too. 

But with a full admittance I'm no PTPstradamus, I'm pretty sure that in six months, the Somebeachsomewhere comparisons will be relegated to the dust bin, just like they have every single year since that incredible animal set foot on the racetrack.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.  

Squeezing Value From Multis - It Changes Over Time

Playing multi-race wagers is a staple in the modern betting game, and like with most things in our vocation, it evolves and changes over time. 

This type of wagering strategy started with caveman tickets where we weighted everything equally. Then after Crist's seminal book, the ABC method took hold. In the late teens of this century, the warm and cuddly one was flamed from just about everywhere and by everyone in racing for sharing his weighted, DFS-type multi-race play, which added quite a bit of game theory to the mix (a lot of which is shared in Chris's excellent book). 

One plank of multi-race betting theory - which primarily fit with harness racing, due to its 20 cent multi-leg bet minimums and short prices - was taking advantage of people who spread, because they are going too deep in each leg, because they're betting not to lose. 

Optimal play meant we'd want to hit a sequence skinny and heavy, especially if you like the chalk. You'd get your value boost from the spreaders. This worked for quite awhile. 

I think that's started to change a little bit.

Last night at Flamboro, with their 20 cent pick 5 carryover, a 2-1, 3-5, 18-1, 1-2 and 4-5 sequence paid $4,405 for $1 (the parlay was about $250). The juicer was the 18-1 horse who was like zero for 30. Zero for 30 horses aren't being keyed by sharps on $10 tickets. 

At WEG, the 20 cent pick 6 with only an $8,800 pool would've resulted on a parlay price of $135 with the big chalk in the last leg, with the bet itself paying $93. The heavy chalk lost the last race, and the payout was still only 20% above parlay because the horse that beat him was logical. 

This is not a new phenomenon (with the shorter prices at the Big A on 50 cent tickets I think we're starting to see a little of the same thing). People (teams, sharps) are getting better and better at *not* spreading 20 cent or 50 cent pools.

Despite this slight pivot, I think ITP's methods still hold. To beat this game we have to "hit them where they ain't".

In a chalky looking sequence that we like (especially with a smaller pool) for a $5 or $10 base play, we have to differentiate when it's apparent, and be willing to lose our bet to gain value. 

Free squares, again especially in a small pool, might have to be sit-outs or be faded, where again we need to be willing to lose. For years I have been fading a 1-5 or 1-9 chalk when they are in leg one, but I'm starting to look at them in later legs as well. 

Time will tell how that goes, but I think there's mounting evidence that with less and less non-sharp money in the pools spreading like peanut butter, it's starting to make a lot of sense. 

Have a great Monday everyone!

The Derby Day Betting Post Script Super Spectacular Blog Post

Yesterday's Derby Card is now in the books. 

DeRosa reported Derby handle was off 2%, and Cherie DeVaux won the big race with Golden Tempo. I like to believe our friend Chuck Simon was looking down on her with a broad smile.

Overall, outside the early pick 5, I felt like many of you that the betting day might look chalky. The Turf Sprint looked like a three horse affair with little to separate, the Pat Day had only two main contenders (and in my view it was tough not to use both), Rhetorical was a super wise-guy lean, especially with the trainer. 

Opportunities I noticed were twofold in the first half of the card. In the third, Vibe was signalled hard in the betting that he was going to be good, and I'm not sure it was CAW money. Ditto Tour Player, who was lights flashing and horns blowing he'd be very tough. Both horses won forwardly and were priced at bettable odds. 

I guess now's the time to talk about Elvis in the Churchill Downs Stakes. 

Earlier in the week I noticed the horse was bet down bigly, and we were looking at a board price of about 10-1. I watched the replays and was interested in the horse, and noticed a few non-CAW type players liked him in this spot. I wondered if this was a separator that could yield fruit. 

As we all saw, it was certainly fruit yielding - he won like a 1-5 shot - but my God. 10-1 was a pipe dream. How about 5.87-1 off a 30-1 morning line, with oodles of money coming in late in these monster pools.  

Caws and @ChurchillDowns raped their customers in the 10th race with the 30-1 morning line winner(8). The winner dropped from 12-1 to 5-1(-58%) after the gates opened. The 8-5 exacta dropped from $259 to $108(-58%) https://t.co/VsLjuynT9V pic.twitter.com/RjrvUlKcQl

— Gulf-SchemePark(Decoupling soon) (@Jackpotkimm) May 2, 2026

I'm not going to berate anyone for being upset at the late odds drop. It's super bad. But the pick 3 did tell us where the horse was going. And as ITP says, everyone playing it outside the US knew too. This is a self-inflicted wound.

When the rest of world knows more about what prices American horses will close at than American horseplayers then American racing is showing it’s incompetence.

— Inside The Pylons (@InsideThePylons) May 3, 2026

However, it was incredibly egregious. In my view it was probably a combination of smart cash on the Pick 3 signal, and the CAW's tripping over themselves being overzealous. 

And, I love +EV's feed and he's a sharp guy, but I have a feeling this wasn't his best work. I'd suspect Zeljko miscalibrated his bet size and bet this too hard. Could be wrong, of course, I'm just a guy on the internet. 

Zeljko is easily top 3 nicest people I've met in my life, but there's gotta be like .01% of him deep deep down inside that is thinking "cry harder you fucking losers" https://t.co/Zhlzpi4hkw

— Plus EV Analytics (@PlusEVAnalytics) May 2, 2026

Regardless, there was some value in the double (the CAW's likely stayed away from that one), but proving once again how difficult the game is - you have a 30-1 ML on Derby Day; you have a live horse; you have the best horse; and if you want to make a score it's not with a pick three or four - those were hammered. It's not with boxing with the chalk, either. You have to be super-creative by say tossing Knightsbridge and hitting a bomb underneath, to snatch an exotic. In essence - the things we do with 5-1 shots. 

I played the harness last evening, and we saw pretty much what we see from time to time on a card. In race two at the Hawk, a horse that was not picked anywhere with competitive but not higher figs, was bet like a sure thing and won like one while being hammered in every single pool. In race four at the Big M,  a horse who was coming off three bad lines, the latter of which was a 152 and change mile where he lost, was bet down to 2-5 like they have tomorrow's paper. He dropped almost 20 lengths and jogged in 1:49.

I get it. We all get it. 

But this is the Derby Card dammit. How much money do these people have in their accounts?

On the other side of the coin, the powers that be plastered the over/under 17.5% takeout bet on screens everywhere; for all I know, maybe even in urinals. 

Why, I really don't know. But as Scott notes, what a disconnect. Selling this to sports bettors is like trying to sell air conditioners in Nunavut. 

The racing was great these last two days at CD and as far as I know horses all got home safe and sound, which is outstanding. But I really hope someone can use logic + reason to convince whomever that posting Odds/Evens in bright lights as the most important thing to see is wrong

— Scott Shapiro (@ScottShap34) May 3, 2026

I watch the feed, not NBC, and I thought Travis Stone's call was awesome. I love people who take their craft seriously, and he does. 

Relive @TravisStone's call of the historic 152nd Kentucky Derby. @Cisco pic.twitter.com/7KUCa4hkEo

— Kentucky Derby (@KentuckyDerby) May 3, 2026

I also thought the CD betting show was superb. Too bad Joe K was ill; get well soon. But nice work everyone. 

The Derby odds board felt a bit better to me this year. Sure the longshots were overbet, and we had the presence of Great White who was somehow 22-1, while being upwards of 150-1 offshore. When he was a late scratch for eating the lead pony being fractious, it depressed some of the pools. But overall the multi-chalk array felt better than usual to me. 

Other than the Land Shark, the only funny many found in the Derby pool was the pick 3 price on Danon Bourbon. Was it because of TO Elvis's win in leg one? I don't know, but whoever was hammering that horse, they were right. He was superb. 

I thought this was amazing. It's what owning or training is all about. 

Full footage of trainer Cherie DeVaux watching Golden Tempo win the Kentucky Derby!

DeVaux is the first female trainer to ever win the Kentucky derby. pic.twitter.com/XS3jFYSKso

— Braden Taylor (@BradenTaylorTV) May 3, 2026

The Super Octofecta - or whatever the hell it's called - carryover brought in like $950k of betting. It must've been Zeljko. 

No networks covered the Derby in Canada. We have like 12 sports networks and not one had it on. It's very odd and above my pay grade. 

Then again, Tony illustrated the craziness even for those south of the border. 

Great news: I can bet the race. Bad news: I’m apparently not allowed to watch the thing I’m betting on. pic.twitter.com/Tghu9TkGTX

— Tony Zhou (@ZhouTony) May 1, 2026

Regardless of the various gripes, I don't think there's anything like Derby Day. The colors, the pageantry, the great horses, the battles, the stories, the crowd... the everything. Win or lose, each and every year I love the Day. It's my favorite card in the sport and it's not particularly close. 

I hope yours fared well. 

Have a great week everyone.