Sunday, May 3, 2026

The Derby Day Betting Post Script Super Spectacular Blog Post

Yesterday's Derby Card is now in the books. 

DeRosa reported Derby handle was off 2%, and Cherie DeVaux won the big race with Golden Tempo. I like to believe our friend Chuck Simon was looking down on her with a broad smile.

Overall, outside the early pick 5, I felt like many of you that the betting day might look chalky. The Turf Sprint looked like a three horse affair with little to separate, the Pat Day had only two main contenders (and in my view it was tough not to use both), Rhetorical was a super wise-guy lean, especially with the trainer. 

Opportunities I noticed were twofold in the first half of the card. In the third, Vibe was signalled hard in the betting that he was going to be good, and I'm not sure it was CAW money. Ditto Tour Player, who was lights flashing and horns blowing he'd be very tough. Both horses won forwardly and were priced at bettable odds. 

I guess now's the time to talk about Elvis in the Churchill Downs Stakes. 

Earlier in the week I noticed the horse was bet down bigly, and we were looking at a board price of about 10-1. I watched the replays and was interested in the horse, and noticed a few non-CAW type players liked him in this spot. I wondered if this was a separator that could yield fruit. 

As we all saw, it was certainly fruit yielding - he won like a 1-5 shot - but my God. 10-1 was a pipe dream. How about 5.87-1 off a 30-1 morning line, with oodles of money coming in late in these monster pools.  

I'm not going to berate anyone for being upset at the late odds drop. It's super bad. But the pick 3 did tell us where the horse was going. And as ITP says, everyone playing it outside the US knew too. This is a self-inflicted wound.

However, it was incredibly egregious. In my view it was probably a combination of smart cash on the Pick 3 signal, and the CAW's tripping over themselves being overzealous. 

And, I love +EV's feed and he's a sharp guy, but I have a feeling this wasn't his best work. I'd suspect Zeljko miscalibrated his bet size and bet this too hard. Could be wrong, of course, I'm just a guy on the internet. 

Regardless, there was some value in the double (the CAW's likely stayed away from that one), but proving once again how difficult the game is - you have a 30-1 ML on Derby Day; you have a live horse; you have the best horse; and if you want to make a score it's not with a pick three or four - those were hammered. It's not with boxing with the chalk, either. You have to be super-creative by say tossing Knightsbridge and hitting a bomb underneath, to snatch an exotic. In essence - the things we do with 5-1 shots. 

I played the harness last evening, and we saw pretty much what we see from time to time on a card. In race two at the Hawk, a horse that was not picked anywhere with competitive but not higher figs, was bet like a sure thing and won like one while being hammered in every single pool. In race four at the Big M,  a horse who was coming off three bad lines, the latter of which was a 152 and change mile where he lost, was bet down to 2-5 like they have tomorrow's paper. He dropped almost 20 lengths and jogged in 1:49.

I get it. We all get it. 

But this is the Derby Card dammit. How much money do these people have in their accounts?

On the other side of the coin, the powers that be plastered the over/under 17.5% takeout bet on screens everywhere; for all I know, maybe even in urinals. 

Why, I really don't know. But as Scott notes, what a disconnect. Selling this to sports bettors is like trying to sell air conditioners in Nunavut. 

I watch the feed, not NBC, and I thought Travis Stone's call was awesome. I love people who take their craft seriously, and he does. 

I also thought the CD betting show was superb. Too bad Joe K was ill; get well soon. But nice work everyone. 

The Derby odds board felt a bit better to me this year. Sure the longshots were overbet, and we had the presence of Great White who was somehow 22-1, while being upwards of 150-1 offshore. When he was a late scratch for eating the lead pony being fractious, it depressed some of the pools. But overall the multi-chalk array felt better than usual to me. 

Other than the Land Shark, the only funny many found in the Derby pool was the pick 3 price on Danon Bourbon. Was it because of TO Elvis's win in leg one? I don't know, but whoever was hammering that horse, they were right. He was superb. 

I thought this was amazing. It's what owning or training is all about. 

The Super Octofecta - or whatever the hell it's called - carryover brought in like $950k of betting. It must've been Zeljko. 

No networks covered the Derby in Canada. We have like 12 sports networks and not one had it on. It's very odd and above my pay grade. 

Then again, Tony illustrated the craziness even for those south of the border. 

Regardless of the various gripes, I don't think there's anything like Derby Day. The colors, the pageantry, the great horses, the battles, the stories, the crowd... the everything. Win or lose, each and every year I love the Day. It's my favorite card in the sport and it's not particularly close. 

I hope yours fared well. 

Have a great week everyone. 

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