Ontario Sires Stakes in 2013 - Just Fine For Smaller Stables?

No one knows what the Ontario Sires Stakes will look like in 2013 in the Province. But that hasn't stopped some from saying the sky will fall. I tend to disagree.

In 2013, there will likely be a change to the model, and certainly it will have less money, but when you add a few potential salient points of discussion, it might not be too bad at all. If you purchased a nice son or daughter of Badlands Hanover, for example, at firesale prices (up to 30% or 40% off), your ROI just might be okay.

My opinion:

• The OSS "Gold Finals" will be smaller, or phased out to a more equitable plan. The Gold Finals are nothing more than a paycheck to a colt or filly who stands out. If you owned a nice 3YO pacer this past year, your gold final was at maximum a $60,000 purse instead of a $120,000 one, with Michaels Power. With divisions, you can dodge a horse or horses like that. With golds the OSS was top heavy.
• The funding, off the back of a napkin, will not be like zero. It appears the OSS will have near what Pennsylvania has for sires stakes. 
• Ontario sired or owned horses will take preference in overnights. There will be opportunities to race for okay money to pay the bills.
• Super horses, with the lack of stakes in Canada, will likely be plying their trade south of the border. Why would they race in a $20,000 sires stakes event every three or four weeks when they can go into a $35,000 3YO open each week at Yonkers, or a stakes race at the Meadowlands?
• I can't see Woodbine running many huge Open stakes next year. As part of a restructure, they may have to go back to working some races for Ontario breds instead. It'll look more like 1985.

A "decent" OSS horse in 2012 might have raced for $350,000 in purses between golds and grassroots. Next year maybe they'll have an opportunity to race for $175,000, but the chance of getting a slice of that money will improve for them.

In the new reality, and the industry seeming to wish what happened last year didn't, it's hard to have a discussion about what changes are in store. The industry will be smaller, yes. But it won't implode. The OSS is one area where I think smaller stables can make some money.

The Standard & The Matron

I saw Game on Dude win yesterday in 152.1 for nine furlongs. We've seen Breeders Cup Classic's slower than 2:03. We've seen big speed on turf this year, in the 12f Turf and Turf Mile at Santa Anita.

What's it all mean? Well, we generally go to the Beyers to find out.

In contrast, Standardbred racing is, well, standard.

On a mile track, with a nice day, if a horse goes 26, 54, 121, 149, we can likely compare him to others, that day, or any day. It's really not that difficult.

While the thoroughbred breed seems to have hit some sort of speed wall at various distances (especially route racing on dirt), the standardbred breed seems to be rapidly evolving. The one mile teletimer is being tripped pretty quickly, by virtually all ages and sexes, but especially with the younger horses.

At Harnessracingupdate today, this was looked at, and some of the horses who have been performing at a high level are discussed. It's on page two (pdf).

Notes:

This evening, year end honors for three year old pacers might become much clearer at Dover. The Matron Final is being contested, and candidates Thinking Out Loud and Heston Blue Chip are meeting head to head.

Scenarios (with an opine on grading):

If Thinking Out Loud wins, that gives him three big wins in 2012: The NA Cup (Gr I), Bluegrass (Gr II) and the Matron (Gr II)

If Heston Blue Chip wins, that gives him three big wins in 2012: The Breeders Crown (Gr I), Progress (Gr II) and the Matron (Gr II)

If neither wins, a vote for A Rock n Roll Dance ain't exactly rocket science. He has three Grade I wins in 2012: The Meadowlands Pace, the Battle of the Brandywine and the Hempt.

Racing's Encapsulation

We spoke about the NFL and horse racing a couple of days ago, and once again (like most of these silly blog pieces) it got me thinking.

I was watching a conversation between Sid Fernando and sportswriter today on twitter. The NFL writer writes for the about sports business only; behind a paywall.  Sid writes for a number of magazines, blogs and what have you, and he is immersed in many facets of horse racing. Sid's writings - for the most part - are available for free.

If you go to DRF.com, the Paulick Report, the Racing Post in the UK, or any other news and information site in racing you will see stories listed that are something like this in the scroll:

• Frankel to stand for big money
• Dutrow's appeal denied
• Synthetic tracks safer
• Lasix banned for 2YO's
• Havre De Grace sells for $10M
• Remsen Stakes preview
• Purses up 20% at Calder
• NYRA revenue up 12%

And so on. These are the stories we read each day.

For NFL.com, or ESPN.com's section on the NFL you'll see:

•  Brees throws five interceptions
• Giants-Redskins Game of the week
• Manning leads league in QB rating
• Rookie of the Year tight race
• Playoffs if the season ended today

And so on.

What you won't, or what you'll rarely see at NFL.com is a big story about the financial stability of the Oakland Raiders. A change to the playing surface at Giants Stadium. How Peyton Manning's salary is structured. A new type of flak jacket for running backs.

The intricacies or the business of the game is behind a paywall, or it takes a back seat. It's not that it does not matter or it is not interesting to the fan - surely it does matter and it is interesting. Just look at the NHL strike for that. But it's simply not the story. The story is the game this week, statistics, handicapping - everything is about the final product.

Racing is encapsulating. Every one of us who have been handicapping since we've been five years old have read the insider headlines. They've shaped how we think, what we are.

We read about track surfaces, we read about raceday meds, we read about where a horse is standing stud, we read about the costs associated with injections or palate surgery. We read about Mark Verge, frog juice, vets, suspensions, NYRA financial statements, when slots will be open at Beulah, the science behind changing a horse's ph with Arm & Hammer baking soda.

Everything racing is thrown at us. And we have not even handicapped the third at Gulfstream, or made a bet yet.

I wonder if it's a blessing or a curse. The curse is that we are so entangled in everything  - and maddened about much of it - that we throw our hands up and can't even enjoy the end product. The blessing of course, is that with such an impassioned group of people, it (fundamentally) should be able to spin off into bigger and better things for the sport.