Meadowlands Pace Night: Different, But Good

Last night's Meadowlands Pace night is in the books. For the two big races, Sweet Lou took the Haughton and He's Watching - a $3,000 yearling purchase - joined Somebeachsomewhere as the fastest three year old in harness history with his Pace win.

Some notes, or things that caught my eye .......

This was not a Pace night of old, where most of the accompanying races were overnights, with ten horse fields of high conditioned horses or claimers battling heads. These races, a harness staple, have been long gone from Jersey as neighboring states have added slots. It's a shame, because those races had high handles and brought in the gamblers. Instead, we had a stakes card with several low priced winners. It wasn't bad, it was just different.

Trixton looked amazing to me..... losing. Father Patrick, after a brief scare from pocket sitting Nuncio, won fairly easily in this anticipated tilt. Early Hambletonian odds? How about Takter-Takter-Takter at 2-1, 5-2 and 7-1 for Trixton, Father Patrick and Nuncio.

In the fifth race we saw the worst harness racing has to offer: A boat race. A Takter horse on the lead, with a Takter horse blocking, with another Takter horse not wanting to go three high to get around the blocker. At PTP Downs, Jim is $5,000 lighter in the wallet for pulling a Refrigerator Perry. 

In the Mistletoe Shallee we saw Act Now act like Act Now. When you see a horse spit the bit after looking like he or she is cruising by like she does,  it usually means a terrible physical problem. But I wonder, could it be in her head? Strange, super fast, strange mare.

After his two year old Breeders Crown, Sweet Lou was the now horse. It didn't materialize, until perhaps now. I know the division got quite a bit easier with Pet Rock and A Rock n Roll Dance off to stud, but seriously, would it matter if they were still racing? Right now I don't think so. Congrats to Sweet Lou.

Speaking of Lou, I did quite well off his looks in the post parade, especially in the NA Cup a couple of years ago. He always paraded a little funky, but looked totally different that night than he had in his Pocono tilt to start the season. I thought I saw the same last night in the PP; just a Lou that looked a little bit more off than usual. Ummmm, apparently not.

Last year, here on the blog, or on twitter, several sharp bettors were wary of the hype of the Captain, and got in a lot of trouble for it from his fans. It was nothing personal, it was just exhibiting an opinion that when he did start to face decent raceway horses, he might not be winning those short margin races that he was winning last year. Horse racing sometimes is a game of smoke and mirrors. A lot of stud farms like the undefeated-type horse at two and three, and rarely want that exposed, which is what the four & five year old years can do. Even though the farms hate it, as a racing fan and a bit of a historian of the sport, I think it's good for racing to have that extra year. As for the Captain, he is a nice horse and he's always been a nice horse. He raced well last night (and has raced well his season, coming back sound and strong); just not as good as the hype from last year would have led you to believe.

Three year old crops can be hits (Somebeachsomewhere's year) or misses (Well Said or the Captain's year). This year, so far, it looks like a bit of a hit. He's Watching got the best trip of any contender, but he won like he did not need it.  A very very good performance. People like to use excuses when a horse loses, and if He's Watching lost on the big track they might say "he's a little horse who is at a disadvantage". They'd probably have a point. But this horse is so nice his size does not hurt him. Well done for a $3,000 purchase.

I don't know how many harness races I've watched - maybe 100k - and I have not seen a horse do what Always B Miki did last night. He was almost in the middle of the racetrack at the first turn, then got stuck three high the entire rest of the mile, until the head of the lane when he was four wide.  Normally that means an 8th place finish or worse (Sometimes Said had a similar trip and check his line). This night, with this horse, not a chance. He, despite running in during the stretch drive, came second and paced 147.1. I am so excited to see what this horse can do when he gets his head on straight and learns what he's out there for.  I so hope he stays sound.

A lot of people said the Meadowlands Pace was a drivers race, but the rodeo we saw was anything but. Harness stakes races are a race of circumstance, nowadays. Today, speed is paramount and if you are trapped along the rail you can't take advantage of a Meadowlands shuffle, you just find yourself in an impossible spot along the wood. Because of that, everyone stayed on the outside and drivers David Miller and Cory Callahan got royally screwed. He's Watching, who had the three, benefited from that, because Sears with the two ended up in the only spot he could've the way the race went. I saw a lot of people blaming CC and DM last night, but if you watch the race they had no other choice. In races like the M Pace, others dictate what trip you may or may not get, by forcing your hand.

While I think the Captain has come back good at four, I think last year's Horse of the Year, Bee a Magician, is still not near her best. She won last evening in 151.3, which was good, but when she was reeling off similar times off worse trips last year, it's still concerning. She is not as fluid or sound on the track, in my opinion. She should be sprinting away from 50-1 horses coming off her back, not under the stick to hold them off.

Handle last evening, per race, was higher than last year by a decent margin. I am not sure if the early start happened last year or not (which is generally worse for handles) but the results were good. The wagering on the Pace itself was lower than I expected, and only a deviation or two above the others, which is curious, but does show something about harness racing: In terms of betting handle, a deep field of good conditioned horses can hold their own against a stakes field.

Those are my thoughts. All my opinion, of course.

Have a really nice Sunday everyone.

Meadowlands Pace Card Analysis

For harness bettors there are a few cards each year that are must-bets. The Meadowlands Pace card is certainly one of those. There are pool guarantees, an extra pick 4 and usually some excellent opportunities to make a little bit of money.

If you can read a harness program you can see the obvious contenders, but I'll look at a few horses I will be including on my tickets that are not so obvious.

Race One, $100k Sires Stakes Trot: True Blue Stride is a nice trotter who missed a week, which is not uncommon for a Harder student. He is 8-1 ML and up against some horses who will show speed, but if he looks good on the track I will take his inflated price. 

Race Three: 3YO Open: I think Unlocked is one of the fastest three year olds out there if he can put it all together. Tyler Smith's mount will take a beating and is a likely winner, so this colt's odds will be high. I dislike betting horses who break for no reason, but he's a use for me.

Race Six, Misteltoe Shallee: At 10-1 ML, Weeper will be a use. She had a no chance trip in her last with the speed in that race. This week, off a week off, she should be ready to roll. She'll be higher odds than Gallee By the Beach, and she really should not be.

Race Eight, Haughton: This is an interesting race to go shopping, I think. The Captain has been overbet based on reputation and is two for his last six parimutuel starts, burning some cash. Sweet Lou is the standout, but last week's race was very tough; off a tough mile like that he might not be 100% on Saturday (remember his NA Cup as a three year old). This division is amazing because whomever gets a good trip can be there somewhere, and with those two taking a beating at the windows, there may be good value on the board. Ultra bomb Captive Audience is a nice horse who is very sharp. He has had no chance trips in his last few and was really live at the wire last time. I'll use him. I did not like State Treasurer's Gold Cup, but it was off a week after a tough race in London. He can win the race, I believe.

Race 9: Meadowlands Pace: What you see is what you get here, in my view. Whatever contender trips it out will probably win. I think Luckbewithyou will race better this week, and longshot Jet Airway might luck out and hit the ticket. I think the morning line is about right in this race, in terms of chances of each entrant. I'll watch the tote to try and find the neglected contender, more than likely.

Good luck tomorrow everyone. Enjoy the card.

Racing's Lack of Understanding Numbers & the Need For Real Research

From the Bloodhorse:

"The higher takeouts took effect Jan. 1, 2011, amid howls of protest and calls to boycott California racing. Fortunately for California, the decision has proved to be a good one. Nearly $146.5 million in total purses were paid during FY13, which is up 13.7% from the total purses paid in FY11. Handle on California races dipped slightly from $2.9 billion to $2.88 billion for FY12—the first full year following the takeout increase—but total handle has completely recovered. Total all-sources wagering on California races reached just shy of $3.04 billion for FY13."

It's numbers displayed like this which makes it hard to develop sound policy in horse racing.

Success?

FY 2011 wagering, where the handle fell precipitously the six months following, and after a takeout hike in 2010 at Los Al, which also lost wagering, was over $3.4B. Now it's 3.04B. There's much more to the story, like Lenny spoke about here.  

Even despite that chart - which any fortune 500 company would find heads rolling for, not praise from the media - the presumptions are specious.

Since the takeout hike in 2010 purse gains came from the TOC negotiating a larger percentage of takeout; not from a price change. In other words, even if the takeout rate was not hiked, purses would've gone up, making this a self fulfilling prophecy.

What is even more comical, to combat massive losses of wagering during the first four months of 2011, a lower takeout 14% Pick 5 was created, with again the TOC taking a higher percentage of takeout for purses. A rebate program for large wagers was created. This season, 18% doubles were brought aboard to try and get some money back.

In part, lower takeout bets, and systems, helped stem the tide of massive handle losses that were caused by higher takeout. Only in horse racing would people not find that laughable.

During this so called 'success', track revenue has fallen 28.23%. That's what happens when you rob Peter to pay Paul.

When someone reads the above they might conclude California should raise rakes again and make so much more money. Nonsensical. If that ever happened, it would not only be the horseplayers protesting, they would be arm and arm with the racetracks -  who were brutalized by the change in splits - and anyone else who cares about the amenities needed to house the sport (with revenues overall down over $50 million+ since 2010, there are a lot of people suffering cutbacks). 

Racing policy is almost always created on the anecdotal. Steve Wynn doesn't do that with the number of slot machines, table games and how much to charge for each. The lottery system does not rely on anecdotal to jockey their takeout rates. No business does. But racing, seemingly happily, goes about things much differently, while handle circles the drain in charts like the above.

The Jockey Club, or others, need to fund a pari-mutuel research center with smart people doing the research that a multi-billion dollar industry deserves. It needs to stop the madness, because if it doesn't, articles like the above can change minds. That happened in Italy when year over year they jacked takeout to 41% and slowly imploded; now there is virtually no more horse racing there. It's happened with other games that are now defunct. Horse racing in North America cannot follow that same path. It's begging for someone to step up to the plate, someone to lead. It can't come soon enough.