PGA Tour Goes Horse Racing

With a h/t to Phil J, this appeared on the Golf Channel website this morning. "PGA Tour's Silent Strategy a Double-Edged Sword". It's in reference to Dustin Johnson abruptly leaving the PGA Tour over personal issues. Speculation has run rampant, and the writer questions the Tour policy of keeping these things quiet, rather than telling everyone what the reason is.

This is not unlike horse racing. You'll see a trainer on a suspended list for "something" but that something is not announced. In shedrows, with handicappers, speculation occurs and it is usually something sinister. "He was using R24 rocket fuel on his horses and he will be suspended for life." Nine times out of ten it is not rocket fuel, but an overage for something or a mistake of some sort. Frog juice positives happen very rarely.

The PGA, like horse racing, is very different than other sports. The players and the participants are a big part of its structure. In the NFL or MLB this would not happen, but in racing or golf it's commonplace. I think those sports probably have to move closer to the NFL or MLB or NHL, not the other way around.

Notes:

Yes, "EBITDA" is not the answer for horse racing. Long-term growth policies are. I have pretty much given up hope that with the present structure things will be done to foster long term growth. Harvesting is rampant in horse racing, and has for fifty or more years. Q2 for Apple means Q2's as far as the eye can see. For horse racing, it means Q2.

I have seen rumors that the price increases at Toga this year are working out okay, much as we have speculated. I am still firmly of the belief that revenue for big events re: admission and otherwise are much needed in racing. Lower the price of bet, yes, because the price is too high to spur handle growth (why anyone would want less handle in the first place is ridiculous when you are trying to drive eyeballs), but put on a fun, good show and try and make admission revenue part of the picture (like is done in the UK).

ICYMI: Hambo program for free is here. The Horseplayer Monthly, also free is here.

Hambo Week & Other Notes

Good day horse racing fans. The big news today is that Scott Blasi has returned to the Asmussen stable. Twitter is reporting that we've so far seen no pictures of him hugging a horse. #fullstorytwitter.

Here are a few ramblings.

The Horseplayer Monthly is out. Too many stories to mention, but I liked Mike Dorr's article on Jackpot Wagers, and I think it's a must read. Lenny makes a great point on rake, and my pal Melissa talks about first crop sires, which I can use some work with.

CDI, with strong revs from Derby and Oaks days had a decent revenue bump this quarter. Imagine how they would've done if they just raised rakes for those two days instead of the whole meet? Probably much better. 

The big story this weekend is for harness fans - the Hambo card......

A free program is here. 

There are quite a few guaranteed pools and pick 4's etc, so check your local listings. Post time is noon.

Dominated by trots, one of the best pacing races of the day (or any Hambo Day) is the US Pacing Championship, highlighted by Sweet Lou. If there are some front end shenanigans, we might see a sub 147 mile. I think Thinking Out Loud is very sharp right now. If he can get a second or third over trip (i.e. his trip) he might surprise.

How good was the 2012 three year old crop? In last years USPC, seven entrants were four. This year two are. One has a shot (Captain T) and the other is 50-1 ML (Sunfire Blue Chip).

Not sure about the morning line at 4-5 on Bee a Magician in the Ima Lula. She ain't as fast as last year, and Classic Martine, with a better post, went by her last time like she was tied to the rail.

In the Cashman you know darn well there might be some brouhaha from Yannick (and maybe others) against the big chalk. He clearly thinks he can beat him. I am still of the belief the North American trotters want nothing to do with the big horse.

In the big one I think the ML on Father Patrick is heavy. Trixton is probably as good and he has a nice post. This race - probably not from a betting perspective, but from a spectating one - is a real dandy.

We can expect handle to be up this year, I think. Mainly due to the fact there are no eliminations.

Often the best race the Meadowlands offers out each year is the Lady Liberty. It looks to be another great race this year.

Although she was more relaxed last week I will be taking another swing against Mission Brief. A facemask, bright sun and a big crowd at 3-5 is not something I want to hammer.

Have a nice day everyone.

Monday Notes

The weekend - with plenty of action in both the Standardbred and Thoroughbred world - is done. Here are a few things that caught my eye.

Bayern's last was eye-popping, with a solid figure, and one wondered if he would carry it through to the Haskell. He sure did. In some of his previous outings he looked a little nuts, but he has seasoned.

At the Meadowlands Saturday we saw mostly prep races for this week's big Hambo card. A few of the races were pretty ugly, with some no-try efforts. Archangel, who has been bottled up and wacky in the pocket of late, was rolled on the front end to a 1:50 score. Thinking Yannick is not the biggest Ake Svantstedt fan, the Cashman Final should be interesting. Sebastian K returned to the winners circle after slipping all over the track in the Maple Leaf Trot, where he was beaten.

The Equilottery is making some headlines. Here is what the horse lottery looks like from a horse racing bettor perspective (page 4, pdf

Hong Kong lasix study here. What I liked most is the quote that had not much to do about Lasix, or studies. 

•   “For a lot of different reasons, the Hong Kong Jockey Club controls everything,” Preston said. “They have totally revamped the racing model and gotten into the mode of complete transparency. Every record that can influence a bettor’s decision to bet on Horse A versus Horse B is known to them, including their veterinary records. I think the model works because people feel very confident in their betting strategies because they have complete information.”

Something tells me that here across the pond, such a system would fail miserably. Case in point below.

Sigh.... From Henrik Lundell's Facebook today..... pic.twitter.com/KHM8vANa8A
— Brandon Valvo (@BValvsRacing) July 28, 2014

Jimmy Takter got three days for his Scream and Shout drive a couple of weeks ago at the Big M. Seeing the circumstances that is probably not far off what he should've gotten, in my opinion. I hope others in his position rethink the clog move with a longshot from here on out.

Added fees suck. A 20 year old bettor learns about the nickel and diming done in Illinois regarding their ADW tax.  h/t to Racetrackandy

Sweet Lou is as good as ever; probably better than ever. The winter treated him well and he seems sound and happy. His back three quarters on Saturday in a US Pacing Championship prep were robotic, and he won so easily you'd think he went 49 flat. If he can somehow stay sharp and sound there is little question in my mind he will go 46 or 46.1. He would need a three quarters around 1:19 and change at Lexington, which is pretty hard to find. I guess I could temper that in one way: The Big M was rocket-fast on Saturday, so we need to take those final times with a grain of salt.

Presumably looking for more speed, they changed the shoes on the Captain on Saturday. He raced really well, but being a grinder he has a tough time against pure speed horses he is encountering this year. He has always gapped a little on the far turn, but he really gapped it on Saturday.  Regardless, both he and Thinking Out Loud showed they are in form and ready for a go this weekend.

Have a nice Monday everyone!