Laughing Into Stardom

Very often we see fans trumpet horses, especially young ones, when they are undefeated or have a good record. This usually tends to be premature. On this blog I rarely get caught up on horses and their records - some got mad at me last year for not yelling from the rooftops about Deweycheatumnhowe, or Donato Hanover for example. In all honesty I have only seen three horses this decade who I thought deserved shouting from the rooftops - Rainbow Blue, Somebeach and Muscle Hill. I am happy with those three choices and to this day I believe that all three are special.

But I am really close to adding one more to the list - One More Laugh.

This Ray Schnittker trained McArdle gelding has flashed as good a speed as you could ever hope to see. And most importantly he does it in the right way; like he has no bottom.

Cases in point, August 28th, a PASS race at Pocono. He breaks stride in the soup, goes 27.4, 27.4 to catch the field and comes home in 28.1 to win by four, on a track a second off. A week later he gets stuck in no mans land in a 27.3 third quarter, circles the field and wins in 51. A week later he comes home in 121 and change parked to win in a WR 149.2 (yes, a tricked up track, but still impressive). A week later he paces a middle half of 54 flat and still comes home in under 28 seconds to win easily in a track record at the Meadows. Keep in mind, the Meadows in October is not the Red Mile or the Meadowlands. He has yet to race on a mile track.

I don't think I have typed such words on two year old speed since speaking of Somebeachsomewhere in 2007. Horses are supposed to get tired when given these uneven fraction trips (especially around three turns), and only the superstars can win and make it look easy.

Will he be the next one? I have no idea. He is a gelding so he had some issues (I bet they regret that now), he is not huge, he is a McArdle out of a Sportsmaster mare so he does not have Rich n Elegant or Classic Wish type blood. And obviously, with an improving breed and the speed needed now, these horses last a lot less time than they used to. All those can be question marks.

But on pure speed and talent he is certainly one I will be watching week in and week out. We might be looking at something special.

Photo courtesy the Meadows

How Long Will it Last?

When I was at the gaming summit this year in Windsor I spoke with a gambler who said that 'casino revenues, especially slot revenues have a shelf life'. He expected that slots especially will fall off the cliff sometime in the next 20 years. When we discussed it, I was swayed. The demographics are poor, and really how much money can one lose day after day sitting behind a machine before it gets old?

Vegas and destinations have weathered the storm because they offer so much more. There is a reason to go there, but slots in every state and every province? I am convinced we will see that drop-off. From a recent report:

“The historical tendency for revenues from existing gambling operations to grow at a significantly slower pace than other state revenues may hold important lessons for states as policymakers consider further expansion of casinos, racinos, and other gambling activities,” Institute Deputy Director Robert B. Ward and Institute Senior Policy Analyst Lucy Dadayan wrote in the report. “Expenditures on education and other programs will generally grow more rapidly than gambling revenue over time. Thus, new gambling operations that are intended to pay for normal increases in general state spending may add to, rather than ease, long-term budget imbalances.”

That is a dire warning to spend-drunk politicos that the gravy train does not last forever, and gaining revenue in the long run from slots is not something that is solid public policy.

The problem with this for racing is that after slots get saturated and bring in less and less revenue (should that happen) to governments, they tend not to change; they simply look for new avenues to fund their programs. What will they do? I believe, like in British Columbia, they will move online.

Right now horse wagering has a virtual monopoly on online gambling. But it is used like most things in racing - poorly and with little foresight. Go to a horseman group, or a state, or a track and mention online gambling and you will get three different answers, all of which depend on keeping their slices. We all know the problems with "home market areas" and "states regulations on what, when, how much and where someone can wager".

Are we not completely blowing this silver platter opportunity?

In 1930 we were the only legal game in town. We had attendance, we had revenues, we had 10% takeouts, we had gamblers playing racing full-time. Over the years we did not take advantage of it; in fact we might even say we sabotaged it. We raised takeouts by over 100%, thinking that a bigger cut will make us more money. We did not listen to the droves of people who left us, thinking that people loved the horses and would always love the horses. We made it harder and harder to be a customer, thinking that half-ass customer service was an acceptable business practice. We made it harder and harder to make this a worthwhile gambling game to play.

Online blackjack, poker and slots will be a reality in the coming years and that is not an opinion, with BC poised to do it, it is empirical. We have only a short window to not repeat history and blow this again. Will we make the necessary changes to compete before the competition comes, or will we do what we always do - wait for it to hurt us, then go cap in hand to the government begging them to save us? If we do the latter, I think that this time, we will find that no one is there to answer the door.

Partnerships

Partnerships for claimers and horses of racing age are well documented and out there. (Chick has a good list here). In Ontario and elsewhere for standardbred partnerships, Online Harness Owner and others seem to be doing quite well. But there are very few (that I can see) that solely focus on yearlings.

Yearling partnerships seem to be the ones which I am most interested in, for a few reasons:

1) The Home Run - Claimers and others can provide a lot of entertainment in harness racing, but rarely do we see a home run ball. You can not claim a horse for 20k and race him in the Jug.

2) You Will Probably Lose Money - People in the yearling game know that they will probably lose money. We have for a hundred years. In other partnerships they seem to sell "you can make a ton of money" and there is pressure placed on everyone to do that. For those of us trying to hit a homer and have a good horse, we know our investment will probably be gone.

3) Spreading the Risk - Buying say 10 yearlings at a modest price, can allow two or three to be successful and they can come close to carrying the others. If my stable buys two yearlings outright that is all we can afford and with two bullets in the gun you have to get very lucky.

4) Built-in Patience - People attracted to yearling partnerships should have more patience than a claiming partnership group. Winning, and winning now is not an option with young horses. In fact, patient trainers like Chuck Sylvester and Blair Burgess almost annually hit some sort of homer with modest stock.

I think yearling partnerships are built perfectly for the harness game, and if you have five or six you might be able to get more interest in our game. I thought at times about starting one, but being busy with a lot of other things I let that slide. Maybe it is something to revisit for next years sales, as I think it makes a ton of sense.

Does anyone have any thoughts on yearling partnerships? Started one, tried to start one, or wanted to be a part of one?