Thursday, July 12, 2018

May's Numbers Are In - Here's My Completely Back of the Napkin Monmouth Sports Betting Projections

Crunk linked today's New Jersey gaming report, and here were some numbers.
Doing a little math we see Monmouth did about $10.8M in handle for the couple of weeks they were operating in May. Extrapolating handle is pretty problematic because this is like a cat trying to catch a laser pointer, but let's say for an average May this would mean Monmouth would bring in about $20M in sports wagers.

In contrast, Nevada Sports Books did $315M this May.

Playing around with the numbers, we can make some probably wildly inaccurate projections, but projections based on something concrete nonetheless.

I'm taking into account a 5% hold (it was reported as 7.8% but it will likely come down), 9% to the state, 50% to Monmouth as an operator and 40% to purses. Those last two percentages could be off, as Crunk in his tweet notes, but they're probably somewhere in the ball park. If you know for sure, correct me in the comments.

I'm also looking at Monmouth doing 7% what Nevada does (they'll do about $5B in 2018), which about the percentage in May. As more sports betting comes on line, this is probably high.

Here's the grid.

In this scenario, you're looking at $6,125 a race in purses. You can add an error band to make it more accurate.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out at racetracks that do offer sports wagering in the future.

Note --

We had a go at the odds drop phenomenon this week. Click here if you want to read about it. 

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