Sunday, June 7, 2020

Sunday Post - Ways to Play the Handicapping Puzzle

Hooray for Bobby Sacs!

Bobby, a newer player who enjoys the game, took a shot at the Belmont pick 5 carryover Friday and scored a $2 hit for 92 large. That's a memorable one.

Bobby's ticket construction was pretty good, I thought (even without the results bias of him hitting it!) -

Lone speed key
Spread (including a bomb "A")
Lone speed key

Since loan speeds can be conditional, and not worrying about "just hitting a ticket" and spreading like peanut butter, he shot and scored.

Me on the other hand, not so nice, but it shows how much, in my view, the game can be looked at with different perspectives.

I am a lone speed key lover, but I watched a few of the dirt races and didn't see a speed track. So, I pitched the two lone speeds.

I generally went: Pitch Instagrand, lean on spread closers like the two and six, key of the 11 in leg two, spread including Bobby's bomb, obvious mid-pack, added closers, and a lean on the Clement FTS who won the last. I hit four of six, missing the two obvious lone speeds to go deep on closers.

Bobby made some nice, pretty simple tickets. We get paid when we're right, but you have to have a ticket set up with conditions to be right. So, hooray for Bobby Sacs*. 

Schnittker! Hooray for Ray, I suppose.

Last evening at the Big M, trainer Ray Schnittker - the guy who wants no qualifiers, just racing - had a night.

In the second, a horse he (was made to, by the rules of racing) qualified at Goshen and appeared to look pretty good doing it, took a boatload of early cash, drifted up to 9-5 and absolutely crushed in 50.

Then in the third, another of his charges opened up with $4,000 on his nose; another qualifier from Goshen (but this one probably not as good). This colt crushed more than the previous one, in 49 and change! These two followed up a season's debut on Friday where the horse was mediocre, coming 5th.

Now, what do you do with that puzzle? Just bet the signal of early money with first timers? We know that's a ticket to the poorhouse. The ten in the first race - similar class, young horse coming back off a good qualifier - opened up low and was 10th at the quarter.

Just bet Ray first timers if they take money? I suppose so, but if everyone bets them they'll eventually be no value.

All I do know is - thank goodness there were qualifying lines to look at. The last thing the sport needs are horses winning nw2's in 149 with no running lines. The betting public think they're up against it enough without that kind of reminder.

Have a nice Sunday and rest of the weekend everyone.

* I heard from Bobby Sacs after his score. He asked me a name of a horse rescue he could donate to. Like I said, I'm happy for Bobby Sacs.

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