Wednesday, November 9, 2022

Election Wagering Recaps

Happy Wednesday everyone!

Another night of election wagering is completed - or not really completed, as the country who brought us the loom, the tractor, the hulu hoop and the iPhone takes days and days to count ballots - and it was about as advertised. It's really, really hard to bet properly now. 

With early voting, state by state differences in the counting of votes, and shifting demographics and opinion (Florida is red and so is Ohio now), it was terribly difficult to form mathematical based decisions. One thing I do know, and this has happened and probably will continue to, fading a narrative wins money. 

People getting home from work and moving the markets heavily against Democrat candidates were Joe Kennedy shoe shine boys giving stock tips. That's always good to fade, and if you did, you were in great shape before any vote was counted. In fact, you could've made some decent money, because the R's were overbet. 

But, and this is an issue for us folks who actually want to get a bet down - it was hard to get a bet down. One site I use was 404 errored for hours. There is a obviously a market for betting these elections - 404 errors because of too much traffic means offer more of it, not less. If some exchange somewhere did this properly, like Betfair did long ago on theirs where you could get a $50,000 bet filled, they'd probably do 100 million or more in handle. But sadly, it's 1991 out there, and 404 errors still happen. 

Luckily (although there's still counting going on) I did get a wager down against Kari Lake in Arizona at plus 400 right before a 404, so that might give me some pocket change when all is said and done, but it's close. 

As for my betting results, I played fine, and since it was harder to get a bet down, and I didn't feel comfortable, I didn't spend much. I got great CLV on Oz at +150, who ended up -200. I don't mind losing good bets. I bet a couple of longshots that got bit by vote ticket splitting, small, so that was meh. I took some value on the D in Nevada a few weeks ago, and she looks like she might pull it out by a hair. I got beat in a house race that I thought was a slam dunk, so that was bad. 

Polling error did bite me, where I am close to losing a great CLV bet of a margin in Iowa. The books moved it down 3 points after I bet, and I am still teetering right on the edge. Again, great CLV, but possibly a bad result. 

Hell, this is a night when the New York Times "needle" went down for an hour for track maintenance. Why? Because they programmed this remarkable piece of machinery (it truly is programmed amazingly well, so kudos) fat-fingered with Louisiana as Democrat. Strange things happen when betting elections. 

Last up, when you get into the weeds of betting one thing doesn't escape me - this political business is cutthroat, dirty and in some ways disturbing at its highest levels. But other than looking at numbers I did watch some coverage. I saw a picture of a successful businessman running for Congress with his beaming mom -  a mom who escaped Saigon in the 70's. I saw a clip of a woman running who was homeless and strung out on every drug in the book, change her life and run for a seat in Pennsylvania. 

As dirty and annoying the highest levels can be, the grassroots is wonderful, and we're lucky to live in countries where that can happen. 

As always thanks for reading. Back to horse racing this week. Have a super Wednesday!

No comments:

Most Trafficked, Last 12 Months


Carryovers Provide Big Reach and an Immediate Return

Sinking marketing money directly into the horseplayer by seeding pools is effective, in both theory and practice In Ontario and elsewher...