Monday, May 8, 2023

Super Spectacular Blog Vol 6 - Derby Card Thoughts, Top Tweets, Doubling Down, Girl Who Jumps Like a Horse, Multi-Legs, World Premiere Movies & Irad's a Big Baby

Welcome to the Monday Super Spectacular Blog! 

As always thanks for reading and sharing these random thoughts each week. I feel I've really upped my game, because I've even started to proofread what I type a little. It only took me around fourteen years to start and I owe it to all of you.  

Let's get going!

I have some thoughts on Derby Day. Perhaps these are amazingly insightful, or more likely skippable, like we used to do with when we paid $18.99 for a CD and found it only had two good songs. But remember the blog is free.

  • Mage did what many thought Forte would do in the Florida Derby - be ready to fire a big one - and he did. Way to go to those connections. Mage is a talented horse who was seasoned just enough. I'm sad for Marcus the Greek and other Two Phil's backers because he was tremendous in defeat for Rivelli, who seems like a dude. I thought it was a very entertaining race. 
  • We had an Eskendereya-type scratch (coincidentally or not from the same barn) and it was a doozy. It made me wonder, since the Derby started in 1467 (I made this up, I think it was around 1880) how many horses started who were lame over all those years? I suspect dozens, because "it's the Derby". I'm glad the vets are watching things much closer in this day and age. Racing lame horses sucks; for the horses obviously, and for the bettors, as we watch our horse lose by 40 without knowing anything, before or after. 
  • Selfishly, for those who weren't fans of Forte to begin with, did that scratch ever screw up our odds board. There was a Ross Perot giant sucking sound, and it was the value being sent into the abyss.  
  • $10,000 pick 4's, $100,000 pick fives and $135,000 superfectas? Gotta love Derby cards (note, I wasn't close to any of those). For me it's the best card of the year. 
  • I'm not really a fan of this Irad fellow's histrionics. As y'all know, Tyler Gafflione kept him pinned in with 3-5 chalk Goodnight Olive in the 4th race on Derby Day. This is exactly what he's supposed to do, by not only the rules, but to make the owners of the horse an extra like $100k for a better placing. Irad acted like Tyler stole his lunchbox, took his seat in the cafeteria, and for his birthday got him a Chumbawumba CD. Are riders supposed to let him out just because he's him? 

  • My ADW froze a bunch of times during the Derby. It makes me wonder how much handle was lost because of glitches like this around North America. I gave up and shelved a few of my superfectas. 
  • Kudos to Scott Shap and the team at Twinspires. I found listening to the guys and gals on the track feed firing was a good experience. They do a great job, in my opinion. 
  • For the ultimate contrast I didn't watch NBC until the pre-Derby chatter (when there was like 12 gazillion minutes to post). It seemed fine to me during that time but I rarely watch it anymore. 
  • Kangeroo Court in the 8th was a figures horse and those are hammered by quants. I wonder if the So Cal figures have to be rexamined sometimes. I'm often wrong, so maybe I'm seeing things. But migosh that horse was live both offshore and in the pick n's.
  • The Mine That Bird effect was in full effect (this blog is free) as the longest shot on the board at ten minutes to post was 31-1. 
  • WSJ - good race but lots of horse deaths.   And of course, we're used to Deadspin being exactly what we expect from Deadspin. However, as my Aussie horse racing friend brilliantly once said on the twitter, "Do you ever find it funny that racing craves mainstream attention, but not mainstream opinions?"
  • I always try to remember that was someone's horse.  
Horse racing, man. This surprises zero of us. 
It doesn't get much better than this. How Gamblers outside horse racing see horse racing?

It's 8 minutes to the Derby and ...... don't ever change Bucky. I'm not sure what to make of Molly.  Meanwhile, Erin seems like a reluctant fan who hints she is looking forward to the Derby, but her followers appear to be against racing, so she saves it by expressing she wants the sport ended and for us to celebrate pie instead. 

How long did you spend studying the Derby? This study says you might've spent too long. More information can be, and often is, noise. Noise, noise, Japan, ABR celebrity picks, noise, Japan, Derby hats, noise ..... arrgh. 

Back at the ranch.

The extra distance traveled from post 20 to the wood into the first turn at Churchill Downs is 6 inches. Who knew? Chris apparently does. In other news, I learned M equals C squared at some point in my life, but at my age I don't remember what M or C is. 

Chris has also been doing a nice job showing how inefficient the Preakness future wager is. This is why I often plead with racing to allow all sorts of betting. When you have more points of contact you can grow. Bettors find things.  

I tend to play race by race and leave the fancy multi-legs to the teams and you sharps because I find looking ahead is always tricky. Case in point was Santin in the Turf. I keyed him over the 57 on most pick 5 tickets because I liked him using his speed on that course, and he was going to be third choice. As he paraded and sweat was pouring all over him I thought I was kind of dead. My tickets, with Mage, Phils and Derma as my A horses in the big one, made it frustrating, but such is life with the multi legs. 

Speaking of the Turf, steam horses offshore yesterday were Up to the Mark (winner) and the aforementioned Kangaroo Court earlier (I think he's still hopping).  In other races, Dallas Stewart's maiden in two and Hoist the Gold seemed to be sneaky team steam. They ran second and third. 

Back when I was playing at Betfair regularly I'd see a horse I liked at 3-1 who opened dead on the board and was, say, 6-1. I'd immediately throw up a bet on the exchange at that price, thinking the horse would move lower at post time. It would get snapped up fast, so I'd do it again but at 7-1. And it would get snapped up again. At that point experience told me I was probably on the wrong side, but I'd often times be subconciously tilting and convince myself to keep going. 

The horse would run up the track, naturally, and I'd feel as sharp as a marble and be madder than a hatter. 

This week's edition of Tilt has to be whomever (there seemed to be many) were betting the Maple Leafs against the Panthers last week in amazing amounts. Sharps I know had the Leafs chalk at around -160 for the series. That opening line got immediately bet to -210 in action I honestly have never seen before without injury news or maybe a tsunami. 

After the Buds lost game one, books hung Florida -110 series, and these bettors were back again, doubling down. The Leafs ended up about -130 chalk. 

After they lost game two, the books posted the Leafs at +245. It didn't move for a day or two (finally they are out of money, I thought) but they came back. I saw +215 series at 365 before game three. 

They lost again last night so they're down 3-0 to this pesky Florida squad. Will they be back firing? I wouldn't put it past them. At this point I hope they pull off the shocker 4-3 series win, because damn they must be tilting something fierce. 

Doubling or tripling down is fine if it's a mathematically good bet. But when we're digging a hole sometimes it's best to stop digging. If we don't, the result could be a titanic-sized tilt. 

Crunk has historical Derby handle and it has not unexpectedly grown. I wonder how much post drag has added to the handle. 2005's Derby went off at 6:11, now it's almost 7PM. And the card is longer as well. 


Director of the Unnamed ITP MIKE JOYCE BUDDY ROAD TRIP MOVIE Ray Coloto has a new feature movie of "HARNESSLAND" out this week. You can watch it here

The studio (Ray) sent me this promo poster.


I didn't watch the Coronation of King Charles, but the regalia and pomp and circumstance has put great pressure on me because I'm in charge of arranging the Chuck Simon King of HISA party.

Someone dumped 500 pounds of cooked pasta in some woods in New Jersey. I don't know what this is doing in the Monday Blog, but I've thought way too much about this. 

There was suspicious betting on a college baseball game, and the state of Ohio halted betting on the team indefinitely. Interestingly enough the -245 chalk won so it doesn't seem like some sort of wild coup, but there you go. Later in the week, Alabama pink-slipped the manager. The plot thickens. 

As most blog readers know the online censorship bill passed in the Tundra and I am really hurting for Canadian sponsors. So, here's a girl from Alberta who can jump like a horse. 

Thanks again for reading Volume 6 of the Super Spectacular Blog.  Almost 300,000 of you (there are maybe a few extra zeros there as my zero button has been sticking) read this blog each week. Most people would charge big money for this, but not me I have too much integrity. Although I do secretly upload malware when you visit and they're paying me forty cents a hit. Enjoy shopping with Rakuten. 

Have a very great super spectacular week everyone. Go cash some tickets!

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