Is the "Intent" Handicapping Variable What's Driving Up Chalk Win Rates?

Handicapping horse racing would be pretty easy if the fastest horse won every race, but betting what horse is the fastest in this race, on this day, is our main goal. 

To find that horse we can use intent handicapping factors, and they can include basics like a rider or driver change, a drop in class, or an addition of lasix. 

Finding hidden intent factors - that is, things that aren't in the PP's - can be a holy grail for us. Long ago, bike changes in harness racing was one that could particularly yield fruit. 

Also in yesteryear, there would be information outside the form that we'd get while at the track. 

I, and I'm sure many of you, would hear that a horse was ready. The trainer got some vet work done, and the hock that was bugging him was on tip top shape. The horse in training blew away a top horse in the barn on Wednesday afternoon. 

Oftentimes we'd hear this and look up and the horse we figured was 10-1 was 7 or 8-1. It would close at 6 and win going away to pay $14. Many times you'd squeeze an exotic bet in that would pay, because every pool wasn't covered. 

These horses of course exist today just like they always have. But while I'd get this information at ten minutes to post, run over to a friend and whisper what I heard, dissemination is much, much different. 

In fact, these tidbits could've been texted 500 times over the previous two days. 

The horse that was 10-1 is not 6-1, but likely opens at 9-5. It may be chalk or second choice in the pick 3. And, in 2025, when the CAW live play algos catch this, they factor it in as well, driving down the price only as they can when you pay 5% win juice. 

One simple bit of "hidden" intent information in 2025, with cellphones, being able to easily bet multiple bets (exotics and otherwise) on your ADW, and in the age of so little public money in the pools, snowballs into a whole lot of hammered horses. #theyknew horses were #theyknews because #theyknew. 

It doesn't mean these horses always win; just like 25 years ago they didn't either. But I'd argue with some of these horses, it has become as obvious an intent factor in the pools as a driver change in 1994. 

There's a lot of reason for the sharper lines we see today and surely the computer wagering is a big part. But hidden intent factors that aren't as hidden in the modern game in my view are pouring a lot of gasoline on that fire. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.