Since this is what I think is probably the biggest card of the year in the sport, I figured I'd break ranks with my usual drivel and do some handicapping.
Perhaps a few of you thoroughbred players want to tune in and enjoy a big card Saturday night with your hitched-wagon cousins, so here we go, with the pick 6 from races 6 through 11 (and a few other plays).
Race 6
This race appears to run through the veteran Stonebridge Helios, who is such a classy animal. There really isn't a whole lot of speed in here, so he should get what he wants. Dublin Dasher should fire out and get a nice trip, and is probably a threat to the chalk. Regardless, I have nothing inventive here.
Race 7 Gr II Armbro Flight
I'll want to get involved here, because I think although potential favorite Yo Tillie has a gaudy win loss record she's never done anything special in my eye, like step away from good horses or overcome a trip. I can't help but feel she'll be one of those 4 year olds where the excuse about the "transition" is used, when in fact she's just not fast enough.
Last week was probably the right time to fade (coming off a crawl home in :28.4 the week before), but maybe we can strike twice and get some value.
But.........
Where do we go? That's a problem because so many of these horses have question marks, especially the Svanstet trio who are talented but don't look close to on-form. Maybe this lowers the price even more on Yo Tillie as bettors default to her.
I will probably go to post 11, the trailing spot, for a poke on Miracle Maven. She almost beat Bravo Angel off a long break, then coasted home nicely against last year's Oaks winner Coversano, who I think is a nice filly and was ready for a good layoff barn. She tuned up with a qualifier that to my eye was just fine. We'll likely get a really nice price (I hope), and we have for my money, the best driver in the sport behind her to overcome the crap starting slot.
Race 8 Gr I Roses Are Red
I think there's at least some chance Twin B Joe Fresh is done, and Miki and Minnie, who should take money, didn't overly impress me last week. Both can win I suppose, but I don't want them on my tickets. I think the race goes through Louies Girl, who I thought overcame a terrible drive last time. She should by all rights be a strong favorite; if she isn't, I think they're telling us something.
I am interested in Always Dawn and Rodeo Drive Deo underneath. If either win, the pick n prices will be good.
Race 9 Mohawk Gold Cup
It's always nice to watch the aged division tussle and the race office has carded a nice race here! The biggest question to me is: What price do we want to take on Ervin Hanover from his bad post?
I think he'll take a beating like most Menary horses, and I think I have to use two horses instead that can help us separate - Calicojack Hanover (who I think could be better this week) and Coaches Corner (who raced well to be 5th in this race last year). I don't love either of them, and if Ervin beats me from out there, so be it, but this feels like a race I have to try something.
Race 10 The Fan Hanover Gr I
What a horse race.
To me, Loua Dipa is the most talented horse in the sport. Lots of folks like to get caught up in win-loss records, but if you're gonna be called a star, you better show me something I haven't seen before. And she certainly has. What horse in racing could throw a 52.2 middle half while looking like they were strolling in a qualifier? This is a pretty special animal.
But she's lost a few and she's quirky at times. And her main foe - the 9 for 9 Be Perfect BG - is fast! I am so interested in this race as a fan.
People will want to "get by" with both, but we can't do that, so we'll key the big filly.
Race 11 The North America Cup Gr I
The post draw might've changed the mix on outcomes here (Beau's chances up with a perfect post, Brandon Blvd's chances down with the worst one), but I still think this is a very fun horse race.
Mamba is obviously a very nice horse, and I can't help but think we haven't seen his true bottom yet. He probably met his two year old top in the elimination, but the way he did it tells us there's more in the tank. Third off a layoff should have him at his best.
I suppose we have to caution this with a Harvey Packism: We never want to take low prices in harness racing on horses that can't make their own race. Mamba hasn't shown he's versatile enough to make his own race, and with leavers outside of him, James can get himself into a lot of trouble here.
He also did end up in the 10 path in his elim, which often signals a physical issue. If he's under around 9-5 I won't bet win. It's why we make odds lines!
Beau backers have aligned that the colt has to be better this week, but I wonder if some of that is from emotional investment. His top last year was 48 and change, and he probably ran to it last week, while losing to two horses that are in this very race. Horses can be better week to week, but we need to also weigh the probability that last week showed us how fast he can go.
The Ainslie "beaten favorite" angle worked long ago because horses who were beaten favorites were ignored the next week. This beaten favorite might even be favorite again. To me the logic is clear here.
In the elim, I think the value lied in pitching Beau out of the exacta. This week the play for me is to pitch him out of the super. If last week was his bottom, a Bob overdrive (something the trainer doesn't mind) could have him right off the super. Once again, if he fires a big one on the front and beats us - we tip our caps and turn the page.
My super will probably look something like 3-4810-14810-1247810. It should pay something if it hits.
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I'm generally bad on stakes nights like this, which usually end up chalk-laden, so I look to the undercard.... but I'm not good enough to see much there either.
Harness racing, much like Thoroughbred racing today, has a few sneaky horses every card, but everyone seems to find them now. Exactly Correct, years ago, I think would be a solid key in race 11, but this 4-1 ML favorite will probably be 4-5. I'll tune in and hope.
I do see a potential chance Scorpion Seelster wins race 13 at a big price with Jody. Everyone will be on Borderline Mobby and I think he's a fine horse, but I hate unreliable horses at short prices. In the first race I like Crack Shot, who by all rights should be able to crush a horse like Waffle Blue Chip.
Good luck everyone, and enjoy the great racing they have in store for us at Mohawk!
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