Tuesday, October 2, 2012

3 Easy Ways To Help The Betting ROI

No handicapping angles here. No fancy workout reports. Just three ways to improve ROI, from a dude who's tried to do that since he was about 8. Scratch that, 18. Betting horses at 8 years of age would be illegal.

Remember, this is advice from a blogger, and as always do your research before taking any advice from bloggers, politicians, or a doctor who graduated from a school in a country you've never heard of.
  1. Don't Bet Short Fields: If you are betting a five horse field at Turf Paradise with a 20% win takeout, there is no possible way you can win. If Pittsburg Phil and Bill Benter had a baby, that kid would probably be a good horseplayer, but he or she could not win. That Long Island Medium lady could not win. Nostradamus would play for a week and become a painter. Takeout is pronounced and the odds board is super-tight with no edge. There are like 40 tracks going off next Saturday afternoon; pick another race with 8 horses and up your ROI. 
  2. Don't Take Goofy Pick 3 and 4 Tickets: A goofy pick 4 ticket is a bankroll killer. Making the 2-1, 5-2 and 3-1 horses "A" horses in each leg might make you feel like you're "covered" but all they do is find your wallet and extinguish the cash in it. If you are going to take a ticket, take one keying your best shot in the sequence as a separator horse and then spread. Take a stand against a couple of weak chalk's and spread, but don't spread everywhere. Let your buddy or the public handicapper take a $64 ticket and hit that $72 pick 4. They can buy a hamburger with the winnings. You spend $36, get the one that pays $1800 and start building a betting bankroll.
  3. Get Yourself a Rebate: The biggest misconception out there is that all professional horse bettors are great handicappers. What they have in common is that they bet volume, and get some money back. There are player reward cards at tracks, dozens of ADW's will offer you something back for your play. You can get something back if you play $2 a race or $1000 a race. Run, don't walk, get these free and easy benefits and immediately up your ROI.
 I'd write a disclaimer for the above, but I'm too lazy. Good luck at the windows.

Gaming Conference Yields Some Quotes

This from Joe Brennan Junior, Chairman of the Interactive Media and Gaming Association:
  • What the racing industry has decided to do is to stand up and thwart history," Brennan said. "The public has spoken. This disruption has already happened (despite a difficult political and economic environment). To try to stand in front of the disruption when it has already happened is counterproductive."
  • "You should be leading this (effort)," Brennan said, noting horse racing current exclusivity with legal online wagering. "I've asked this question many times: Why aren't you leading this? The Internet didn't happen last year. You've had six years. What are you waiting for?
As we've spoke about before, and many of you who've followed gambling, are gamblers, or are interested in it, have echoed it in the comments section, he's pretty much right on. Racing has had a near monopoly on betting over the internet (well, in at least 38 states anyway), and it seems to still be behind.

Could you imagine if in 1960 congress passed a law that stated only NHL Hockey - and no other sport - could be shown on television? One would expect hockey to thrive. 

I had a chat last week with an industry person who is more than upset with what racing has done with things like takeout. He said (paraphrasing), "if racing took over casino gambling, they'd raise takeouts to 30% like superfectas, and then when within six months when no one comes to casinos, they'd conclude people don't like casino gambling anymore."

It's kind of the same way with online horse betting. People love to gamble online, and have for 15 years. It's a huge industry, yet racing (although we have seen growth, it can be argued most of it internal growth) has not capitalized.

The reason, in my opinion, is because we have not offered a product people want to consume, and have not diversified, or tried to with new forms of betting, or new betting on other avenues.

For evidence of that I submit the year that the Internet gaming act was passed which banned funding online gaming accounts. And further, the ban of online poker sites on "Black Friday". Those in racing thought banning online competition that was illegal would be helpful to racing. After all, if you're the only game in town now, you'd have to peel off some gamblers, no? It didn't happen.

For whatever reason, probably a combination of price, convenience and state interference, racing is behind, and will remain behind the eight ball. It is not offering an online product that people have grown accustomed to. 
______________________
Notes:

Yesterday it was confirmed that the Odds On folks will be appealing the decision at the Red Mile Saturday. I hope they win, they deserve to. That little colt, in my opinion, will be the best three year old in harness racing next year. 

I read yesterday that the OMFRA committee that is tasked with recommending a restructuring of horse racing in Ontario wants more time. No kidding. "Let's completely dismantle a multi-billion dollar industry, let's change the slots landscape by relocating and renegotiating slots deals across a province with 13 million people that is about six times the size of New York State, let's change 17 racetracks..... and let's do it in twelve months. The timelines were what we expect from government nowadays - messed up.

Riding on the coattails: Woodbine's pick 4 pool last night was over $100,000. The pick 4 has become, thanks to the Meadowlands, a staple in harness racing. Almost every track offers a cheap rake and pushes the wager. Woodbine has coasted along, getting positive buzz. I bet people think they're getting a good rake deal, just like all the other tracks, but they aren't. Woodbine's pick 4 rake is huge.

What a difference a dozen years make. In NM and LA, frog juice positive trainers (a class I) have been suspended years upon years. In 1998 (or 1999) one of these trainers who received a class I at that time got seven months.


Paulick was at the frog juice hearings and noted there was something interesting about lawyered up trainers, versus those who were not being represented. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.

Monday, October 1, 2012

America's Best Racing & The Little Brown Jug

Many of us have been to Jug Week and we love it. What might very well be the most storied and interesting race that harness racing displays, is a staple for Ohio, and the sport itself. 50,000 or more fans enter the turnstiles for the Jug and Jugette and its on-track presence is unparalleled in our game.

However, I was on twitter this week and asked if there was simulcasting for Monday. I didn’t know if there was, or even if a Monday card was taking place. On twitter I received no response. It’s like no one even knew what the Jug week schedule was. 

Not long after that, I received a note from a long-time fan of the sport and he said “the Jug is the most underutilized harness racing property there is.”

I think I agree with that sentiment.  The buzz is simply not there. 

As this graph below shows, web searches for this jewel have been falling, year over year, to almost half of what it was in the middle of the 2000 decade. Outside the racetrack, the Jug’s pull is nothing like it is inside of it.



I am not sure you noticed, but in thoroughbred racing there is a push for almost every big event of late, whether it’s the Woodbine Mile, the Alabama, the Haskell or the Triple Crown races. You may have heard of the “Uno Mas Mario” campaign before the Triple Crown try for the Belmont, or maybe you walked by a courtesy tent at Saratoga, seen “America’s Best Racing’s” website or twitter feed, or noticed more and more mainstream media coverage of the sport.  

I have. There’s a buzz, and it’s palpable.

Those things were not done by accident; they were planned. One organization has stepped up to the plate, to lead all the other alphabets, and to try and give the sport a much needed push.

Last year, the Jockey Club commissioned the folks at the consulting firm McKinsey and Company to give a state of the union report on racing. They wanted to know what could be done to stem the slide of thoroughbred racing on the national stage. Like harness racing, thoroughbred handles have been decimated, and the sport is nothing like it once was on television and in newspapers either. 

McKinsey offered a number of suggestions, one of which involved trying to re-brand racing, hoping to interest both the general public, and casual fans again. This would take some organization and some funding, but the Jockey Club, along with their partners in the National Thoroughbred Racing Association began that journey last year.

“It’s a partnership approach with tracks, bloggers and the media, and others” said Stephen B. Panus, Vice-President, communications for NTRA/America’s Best Racing, when I contacted him this week.

Under the “America’s Best Racing” banner, it certainly is a multi-pronged approach, and through planning (and obvious trial and error and tweaking) they’ve been honing the approach this season.
One area they’ve changed is how the media has been accommodated by the sport. 

 “We used to get calls from media for, say, D. Wayne Lukas’s number so someone could write a story about him. Now we’re being more proactive. We push stories to the mainstream media, based on their specific interests. It’s like we’re farmers, because we are planting the seeds with writers for stories”, noted Panus.

This, in a way, was shown earlier this summer. Sportswriter Pat Forde was interviewing Michael Phelps at the Olympics and he wrote a story about what the swimmer may do after his career is over. At one point, the multiple gold medal winner mentioned his interest in owning a thoroughbred racehorse. Forde, who was an acquaintance of Panus’s, was contacted, as was Phelps. This new potential horse owner was directed to resources that would help him learn more about ownership, and become an owner. 

Not long after, a post popped up on the America’s Best Racing website titled “An Open Letter To Michael Phelps” It invited him to become a part of the sport and let him know that others with his background have become owners (like Kobe Bryant, Drew Brees and Wes Welker). 

This letter was then picked up by a couple mainstream media outlets, like The Bleacher Report, giving racing some much needed buzz. 

“That story had legs for two weeks,” said Panus.

Another area tackled, revolves around fan interest.  As we all know, thoroughbred racing (even more-so than harness racing) is extremely difficult to learn, and the knowledge of existing fans can dwarf that of the new fan. Like a kid in grade four who is reticent to put up his hand to ask a question, new fans can feel the same way.

“Museums learned that people new to art may be intimidated attending their exhibits because they wouldn’t know a Monet from a Renoir,” said Panus. “What they did was develop a system with headsets that explained the art and educated their customer base during tours. We are trying to do the same thing with our Fan Hub”

The Fan Hub is a partnership between America’s Best Racing and the racetracks, where a trackside tent that acts as a fan education center is constructed. New fans are invited to come over, ask questions and learn about the sport of horse racing. At times, jockeys and trainers are a part of it, as are handicappers. At Monmouth earlier this summer, a teller window was included and the track noticed a bump in wagering from these newbies.

“In the McKinsey Report they noted that 46% of current fans would not recommend the sport to a new fan and that was troubling. The Fan Hub tent does racing 101. We teach, engage and empower them to help become an active participant in the sport. We try and create fans from the experience”, said Panus.

Social media perhaps best illustrates the goal of the new organization. As most racing insiders and fans know, there is not much of a true (outwardly promoted) season in either sport - both harness and thoroughbred events are staggered, disparate, and tend to have no real flow to them.  Sometimes it’s common to see two Grade I races going off at the same time. 

What America’s Best Racing tries to do via the medium is bring some sort of structure to this rudderless ship. They promote races and racing based on a few tangible factors. 

 “At America’s Best Racing, we try to focus on the races that have year-end implications in order to help fans understand that horse racing, like all major sports, has a season to it. Therefore in the spring, we focus on featuring races with Triple Crown implications and in the summer and fall we highlight the races that lead to the Breeders' Cup. Furthermore, there's a festival atmosphere at each of the events that I try to share with fans so that they can get to know the whole social scene surrounding each individual race,” said Penelope Miller, the Social Media Manager for the NTRA and America’s Best Racing.

This focus appears to be working. Last season it was very uncommon to see a horse name trend on twitter after he or she won a promoted stakes race. This year it happens almost every weekend. 

As with most of racing, without a set commissioner’s office like the NFL, it can be tricky to cross promote or lead in the promotion of an event, because tracks have to be aboard with a goal in mind. There needs to be a partnership. Fortunately, thus far, what may have been a stumbling block in past years has not been noticed.

“Tracks have been amazingly helpful, doing everything from providing the ABR team access to all areas and personalities of the tracks to sharing photos and videos with us that we can feature on the site and in our social media. Racetracks have recognized that our goal, which is to introduce the sport of horse racing to as many new fans as possible, is one that benefits everyone in the industry and have been incredibly accommodating. “ added Miller.

Recently Darryl Kaplan, editor of Trot Magazine and the Business Development head of Standardbred Canada, penned an editorial titled “It’s Not That Simple”. He wrote that we hear that nasty phrase all too often in racing when we ask for change and use it as an excuse to do nothing. It’s very true that a lot of change in racing is very difficult. Takeout changes, which are obviously needed, are tough in a fractious sport. Asking for exchange wagering (as California is currently showing) is like asking for a cure for an infectious disease with horsemen groups fighting racetracks. The list is long.

However, making a plan and leading in areas of the sport that “are that simple” to change is possible. What makes it possible is replacing the “it’s not my job phenomenon” that plagues horse racing. It is not Santa Anita’s job, or Keeneland’s, or anyone else’s to lead. In harness racing it is not the USTA’s job, or Standardbred Canada’s, or Jeff Gural’s either.  

But now in thoroughbred racing it actually is someone’s job.

Will harness racing follow the Jockey Club’s lead? Can harness racing put together and fund such a venture? The answer, in my opinion, should be yes, especially with slots churning out millions each month. As America’s Best Racing is proving, it’s not that difficult to lead and move a sport forward.

This article recently appeared in Harness Racing Update, Bill Finley's free newsletter. You can sign up for Harness Racing Update at the link.

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