An Industry Derby Win For Orb & Way Too Many Notes

Yesterday we had, as is almost always the case, another interesting Kentucky Derby.

The winner, Orb, has brought an almost giddy like glee to the sport. It's been said in racing 'when you lose, shake the winner's hand, say congratulations and mean it'. This year everyone means it.

Orb is not a factory stable horse, or a horse rushed to just race in the Derby. The storied connections have said many times, if the horse tells them he belongs they will race, if not, they won't.

The trainer, long known for pointing horses to big races only if they're ready, and carrying a deep respect for the colts and fillies entrusted to him, is well respected and a marvelous horseman.

The horse; what about the horse. He's pure class. A beautiful looking animal with readily apparent soundness who clearly appears to like his job: to do what he was bred to do. He's not a flashy speed type who rolls and tries to hold on. He magnificently has poise and can seemingly do whatever you want him to do. He's a 10 furlong horse, in a game which is breeding fewer and fewer of them of any quality.

I've been around racing for a long time. People were happy for Street Sense and several others. People respect a Derby winner no matter whom it is, because everyone knows how hard a feat it is to accomplish. This year it feels different. Maybe it's because of the recent headlines, with positive tests, trainers under security, raceday drugs, you name it. Maybe we all love racing so much, that when a shining star who has done things the right way wins a race like this we can feel pride and say "take that:.

Whatever the reason, everyone is happy for Shug, everyone is happy for the Janney's and Phipps', and everyone is happy for Orb. Everyone is happy.

Notes:

The Pace is the story of many Derby's and it was in this years. Palice Malice first time blinkered, as well as a couple of other colts, raced like scared cats into the first turn, were unable to settle and scorched the opening half. This set it up for the closers.

How about Oxbow? Post one (technically not because stall one was left open), a strong move into a blistering pace and a good gallop out and finish. When someone said they liked Oxbow before the Derby they got looked at funny. That horse raced a fantastic race.

The "what the hell is he doing here horse", Giant Finish, was not even saddled by his trainer, who supposedly missed a connecting flight, but who also didn't look to want to be there either, if you believe the chatter on NBC. He came 10th, and raced really well.

Who did that 'joke entry' of Giant Finish beat? Only Verrazano, Overanalyze and Palace Malice, three fifths of team Pletcher. There was a lot of talk before the race that many bettors believe the numbers, and don't want a Pletcher horse on a ticket in a Derby. Derby 139 did nothing to change that feeling and it probably solidified it. Other than a non-threatening third, his horses raced like they usually do. They seem to leave the big Beyers in the preps, in a race where you have to rapidly improve a previous top.

It'smyluckyday didn't look comfortable at all. My speed choice and bet, was struggling the whole way around. When I saw the pan shot at the half, with the rider tapping his shoulder, you knew his race was over.

Java's War did what everyone thought he would: Walk out of the gate. He would probably be an amazing horse in the 1920's when they did those standing start things.

Normandy Invasion, the "skinny looking horse" after the Wood, looked fantastic in the post parade and raced it. Maybe it was a premature move by the jock, maybe it's the breeding, or maybe he just wasn't fast enough, but he raced really well.

Orb was the horse who was bred to get the distance. He was the one who was working like a champion, was happy, was fast, had a resume, and great connections. He was not the chalk until the last jump. 

Speaking of bets, I did something differently this year with the slop. I played for speed on a set of tickets (It'smyluckyday with Goldencents, and Oxbow wheeled in tris and supers) and a closer set, (with Orb, Mylute, Java's War and Golden Soul). The latter was obviously the best ticket, and I feel good about my flat bet on Golden Soul. I gave myself a chance to take home the track and making a score with him on top. When I saw how relaxed and sound he looked in the post parade, I increased the play. But unfortunately for me, he came second.

The Derby odds board is insane, and frankly, so are all the other races. There's always been a favorite longshot bias in horse racing, but on Derby day it's exacerbated to the extreme. The longest Derby shot was under 50-1, when he should've been 150-1. Some horses on the undercard who were likely 40-1 shots, were half that. It's an amazing day.

TVG could not show Churchill Downs races yesterday to their online customers. This is shameful and the industry (i.e. Churchill Downs) has to ensure that others - even their competition - who serve this sport via television and online can give their customers unfettered access to video 365 days a year, not 364. Customers are not there to be stepped on, inconvenienced or used, just because you own one day a year that will garner lots of handle.

Derby ratings were reported up in overnights, proving once again that American viewers love big events, no matter what they are. How can we turn some of that audience over to watch a Breeders Cup? I don't know, but the Derby is the Derby, and the Breeders Cup is the Breeders Cup.

Each year someone says we're going to see a Triple Crown winner. Each year I chuckle and bet against it. This year, count me in and make fun of me all you like. This sound, gorgeous, versatile, well-trained animal, has a good a shot, in my opinion, to take all three legs that I have ever seen. Go Orb.

Enjoy your Sunday everyone.

Derby Day

Derby Day is upon us. It's the biggest day of the year in horse racing and has been for a gazillion years. It will likely be for a gazillion more.

It's a day where people out of the blue call you and ask you who you like because they're making their yearly bet....... and you're that cool dude or dudette that knows horse racing.

It's a day where horse racing people are all friendly; even to Joe Drape. It's a day when you don't get looked at funny for wearing a floppy hat. Where you can hear a newbie say "I think Sadler's Wells is a good dad to distance horses". Where you see celebrities at the track, doing, well, what celebrities do.

It's a day where after you've spent months looking at who is in the race, you finally look at the past performances, post positions, weather, pace scenario, workouts and say "I have no idea who I am going to bet."

It's a day where Dan at Thorotrends can tweet, "famous May 4 birthdays include Hosni Mubarak, Audrey Hepburn, George Will, and Java's War", and it seems perfectly fine.

It's a day where Churchill executives lose sleep, not because their weekly take at a slots parlor in Louisiana is down, but because they want a safe, happy, great day of racing.

It's a day where the hopes and dreams of the rich guy or gal who owns a horse are realized or dashed, but the grooms, farriers, feed men and everyone else who has a stake in a horse is right there with him or her.

It's a day where we forget about the work that goes into putting it on. From the track workers to the ticket sellers, to the custodians - everyone who makes this huge day happen.

Derby Day is not Churchill's day, nor is it Mike Repole's or Todd Pletcher's or the Governor of Kentucky's. It's all of ours.

Enjoy your Derby Day everyone, and may good racing luck be with you.

Old Horse Racing Books, Same Horse Racing Problems; TV & the Derby

With apologies to Messers Beyer, AInslie et al, my most favorite handicapping book is Thoroughbred Handicapping, State of the Art, by William L. Quirin. Quirin's work was outside the box, whereby he was one of the first to look at a handicapping angle, and instead of showing a race where a horse won using it, drilled down into the data and created impact values and profit ($net).

Rereading the book, I had to chuckle at several instances, when we compare racing to today.

In one section, Quirin looked at the angle "closer to the lead". This angle did provide a flat bet profit, but did even better when filtered with "returned within ten days". One would think out of the 267 horses he looked at with this angle very few would have "returned within ten days", but 66 of them did. The horse he used to show what the angle looked like in the PP's was Crockford Lad, who in 1982 raced 22 times. He was making his fifth start on February 27th 1983.

This is a far cry from today, of course. I think even Richard Dutrow might say "those are some quick wheelbacks"

In another section he looked at supertrainer Oscar Barrera. Most New York fans who played in the 1980's will remember his stock vividly. He was the "off the claim move up" guy that we see so often today.

Here are a couple of gems:

"Ardent Bid who was 2 for 23 before being claimed won his next five of seven, the first of which four days after being claimed, two classes higher"

"Hot Words was 3 for 23 before being claimed for $7500. He won his first start four days later and won an allowance race two weeks later"

The more things change, in this case, the more they stay the same.

A few pages later, Quirin writes a short paragraph on drugs.

"When a claiming trainer develops a hot hand suddenly, the question of drugs arises. The trainer will ride the crest of the wave until the streak is broken, when a racetrack's chemists devise a test to identify the drug. Although patently unfair to rival horsemen, situations like this actually favor the astute handicapper."

and

"Florida is attempting to ban bute and lasix, and the trainers are boycotting the entry box in protest. What this country needs is a uniform set of rules applying to all states, and full disclosure in the Racing Form past performances of each horse's prior and current use of drugs."

It was coincidental that today a Joe Drape piece popped up in the New York Times that said the USADA is looking to take over medication rulings and reform in the US for horse racing. 

Joe Drape didn't create this problem, and neither did Senator Udall. It's been around forever, or at least since 1984 when Quirin's fine book was published.

Notes:

Indulto looked at some solutions in response to one of my posts here at PTP, on TV and the Derby. He has some ideas that I agree with - namely software and giving fans more so they can make their own picks.

Steam-o-rama: Orb is the horse that clockers and the industry are both in love with. If this horse wins, horse racing will be a happy puppy.