Hambletonian Day Handicapping

Hambo Day is here, and here are a few race by race thoughts. A free program is here for all interested, and remember, at times we see a track bias on Hambo Day so watch for that early and adjust accordingly.

Race 1 - Miss New Jersey

Do you want to bet against Iluvthenightlife after her soft last quarter last time? I don't. She missed a week and went a 26 and change second quarter so you could figure she'd be soft. It's a short field and I won't get a price on anything so I'll sit this one out.

Race 2 - Merrie Anabelle

Shake it Cerry looks all world. Lifetime Pursuit looks happy as a clam. Heavens Door, I have a feeling, might try and take it gate to wire. Chalky race perhaps. 6-3-2-4-10

Race 3 - Ima Lula

This is where the day gets interesting for me. What to do with Maven? I will pitch her and try and make a score. She dead heated and then lost with a nice trip last time, with an anemic (for her) last quarter. If she bounces back off a week of rest and possible vet work, so be it.  I'm playing One More Ginny. 3-5-7-6-1

Race 4 - Lady Liberty

The best mares in the world square off in another great race. It's impossible not to like Krispy Apple from the inside at odds, and I think I will stick with her. Drop the Ball was marvelous last time and Androvette is obvious. Longshot Feeling You will be a bomb use in the pick 4's for me. 2-6-8-5

Race 5 - Peter Haughton

There's no getting by the two chalk in my handicapping. 3-1

Race 6 - Vincennes

Take My Picture, at anywhere near ML odds, is a play for me. Cedar Dove and Coco Lindy are both sharp. Burke's horse from the 11 is worth a look behind.

Race 7 - Hambo Elim 1

The race goes through Smilin' Eli as far as this capper is concerned. He missed time, had no schooler because of sickness and raced okay in his last. I suspect he'll be back to his old self. I will be keying him on several horizontals.

Race 8 - Hambo Elim 2

It's hard to believe, but that 27.2 last quarter of Wheelin n Dealin was the fastest he has ever trotted home in his life - and he's won 9 races.  At 2-1 or lower, I can't use him much. Your So Vain is probably the fastest horse in the race and should go off well below his morning line, but he has some problems by the looks of it. I expect he'll be much better with a week off and some vet work, so he is worth having a long look at in the Post Parade. Creatine is a nice horse and the trainer is pretty sharp. I see myself ending up with him. 8-1-3-7

Race 9 - Hambo Elim 3

Spider Blue Chip seems to be getting better and has some mettle. 8-1-5-4

Race 10 - John Cashman Memorial

This is quite the race. Sure Market Share is the best (much the best), but what happens if he gets roughed up? Sevruga and Mister Herbie will show speed and Uncle Peter won't be too far back. I have a feeling Jody works out a trip here with Mister Herbie; if they don't go too fast he might get the jump on the chalk. He's a good horse. 6-9-5-7

Race 11 - Hambletonian Oaks

Who do you like in the Oaks, asks @keenegal on twitter? Last year she bet our pick who paid $120 or something, so maybe she figures we've got another one. But we don't. Bee a Magician looks like the real deal. I do like Coffeecake Hanover as a bomber though.

Race 13 - New Jersey Classic

This race goes through Word Power, in my opinion. I don't think anything in here can stay with this horse.  6-2-9-11-10

Race 14 - The US Pacing Championship

What a race. I'll type that again: What a race. I know thoroughbred fans might not understand harness lines, so putting it in our best runner terms, this four year old and older race is like a Breeders Cup Classic with Alysheba, Ferdinand, Sunday Silence, Ghostzapper, Big Brown, Smarty Jones and Cigar. The richest horse in harness racing history will be 25-1, the winners of the Meadowlands Pace, North America Cup and about three dozen other grade I's are all in here. The field has won close to $20 million dollars in purses. Barnburner.

Me, I am going longshot hunting with Thinking Out Loud. I have a sneaky feeling we will see big fractions here, and if can get away in his post position number, he can be a part of this. Others who will likely be underbet are Bolt the Duer and Pet Rock.

This is, once again, one of the best races you will ever see assembled, and it's why so many want to see fewer, not more horses retire at three.

Enjoy your Hambo Day everyone. Good luck at the windows.

Hambo Saturday: What to Do With Wheeling n Dealin?

Three year old trotter and last season Champion Wheeling n Dealin has been pretty hard to figure out. Last year he was 9 for 9 but I was never really sold on him, because he didn't really show the speed you'd see from many other 9 for 9 trotters. He got cheap half's his whole life (he has never had to go faster than 57.3) and was never tested. He didn't win by a football field either.

This year he came back with three qualifiers, the last of which contained a last quarter of 29.1. He didn't look even remotely ready and when he made his first start bettors were salivating to bet against him. His second start was not much better - in fact it can be argued it was worse - when he lost by ten.

Last weekend, however, he flashed a 27.2 last quarter. When horse's flash a nice last quarter they are feeling good. He seems to be finally feeling good.

I guess that would signal a bet in his elimination, would it? Well, not really. This is not Muscle Hill where he went in 153 as a two year old and you can see him peaking towards a sub-153 this weekend. Wheeling n Dealin has never been a 153 trotter. So he has to not move towards his previous top, he has to set a new one. It's virgin territory.

I suspect Wheelin will be nowhere near my fair odds line come Saturday, so I guess it's an easy choice for me. As Harvey Pack famously said 'don't bet a low priced horse that has to do something for the very first time'. Wheelin will have to go faster than he ever has - and he just might do that - but it won't be with my money.

This years Hambletonian is probably the most interesting Hambletonian to bet in many years. No, the quality is not up to some years, but there are several coming into the race off question mark's, and the field is really deep. Wheeling n Dealin is one piece of a very, very interesting puzzle.

In HRU today (pdf), Perry Lefko chatted with Dustin Jones, trainer of Wheeling n Dealin. As well, a bettor looked at some news and views of the Hambo.

If I have time later I will go through the Hambo card on the blog.

Have a nice day everyone.

The Twitter Time Machine

@Keenegal tweeted this out this morning.

Approaching my 4th Twitterversary. Think my very first tweet was something regarding getting pumped for Quality Road’s Amsterdam #timeflies
— Melissa Nolan (@KeeneGal) August 1, 2013

It's true, time flies. I thought it would be really neat to look back at some first tweets from before 2009 by  various industry types. I commissioned some special software and have them for you today. Enjoy!

Ed DeRosa - "This is stupid. If I have more than 10 tweets by next year I would be shocked"

Joe Drape - "Hi Twitter. It's here where I will link my puff pieces about horse racing. I hope you follow me!"

Ray Paulick - "My new website is up at paulickreport.com. Thanks to the TOC for being a main advertiser."

Brad Cummings - "My new website is up at the cummingsreport.com."

Racetrackandy - "How the f&*$ do I keep getting my twitter account suspended?!"

Jeff Gural - "Hi Twitter. Today's meeting with Governor Christie went well"

Left at the Gate - "TVG is evil. And I don't like John McCain"

JerseyTom - "I'm going to be writing about racing moving with the times. I feel we may be turning a corner"

Caroline Betts (Socal Thoroughbred Rescue) - "I think that by 2013 we as an industry will have made great progress in horse retirement"

Andy Serling - "I look forward to chatting with people on twitter. I consider no question as dumb, so fire away"

Todd Pletcher - "I am in no way affiliated with that @notthetoddster doofus"

Richard Dutrow - "I'm happy to join twitter. Expect me to be here for a long time"

Inside the Pylons - "Test tweet: Moron."

Steve Byk - "Go NYRA!"

Philadelphia Park - "Please see the Parx casino feed for special deals"

Team Zenyatta - "We look forward to traveling more this season"

@DRF - "We have a special at the DRF store: 60% off 'Blame, Horse of the Year' tee shirts"

Sid Fernando - "I will use this timeline to talk about horse mating. I will not, under any circumstance, delve into any other topic"

Turf Paradise - "We'll use this feed to keep you updated on $13.99 rib eye deals, but won't use it to tell you we quietly raised win takeout"

Mike Repole - "If the Breeders Cup doesn't choose Belmont this year I'm going to go postal"

Breeders Cup - "This year's Breeders Cup will be at Santa Anita (copy/paste)"

NYRA - "The slots process has moved smoothly. We expect things to be up and running soon"

Mountaineer - "Job posting - Security guard needed, no experience necessary"

Hambletonian06 - "We won't be going back to heats. Ray Schnittker doesn't like them."

Premier McGuinty - "I love horse racing. Slots are here to stay, and I promise to balance the budget by 2011"

CHRB Member David Israel - "F$)#)$ I can't figure this f#)@#( twitter out."

Gary Stevens - "If I ride again please tweet your critiques to me here. Don't worry, I have a thick skin"

Alex Waldrop - "I wish twitter was invented when we did the Go Baby Go campaign. It woulda rocked"

The Jockey Club - "So far we see a lot of support from trainers for the elimination of raceday medications"

Gulfstream Park - "Us racing in the summer? Are you crazy?"

PTP - "I like the seven in the third at Aqueduct. If he loses I will not tweet again"

Have a great day everyone.