Steve Coburn's Comments Not New, But the Setting Sure Was

By now you've all heard California Chrome's owner on the TV, or the net, or read it in print.

With words like "cheaters" and "cowards" used, his comments did not go over well with many. Even Coburn's wife, a seemingly lovely woman, was forced to give "that look" to her life partner (thanks Racing Dudes).

I see the cowboy-hatted owner has been on the radio this morning and is not walking back his comments, either.

The Richard Shermanesque rant was, like old Rich, in the heat of the moment. But this time the rant was not from a guy schooled at Stanford, who has taken PR classes and who has millions in endorsements riding on his behavior. It was from a good old boy who shows up to work at a factory at 6AM each day. One of those people who, well, we might just expect a whole lotta cussing to go on after a disappointing loss.

And, of course, these comments:

• “They need to change this sport to where those 20 horses that start in the Kentucky Derby are the only 20 eligible to run in all three races,” Coburn said. “If you bow out in the Preakness, you don’t come back for the Belmont. I honestly believe that if the Triple Crown is not won this year by California Chrome, I will never see it in my lifetime because there are people out there trying to upset the apple cart.” 

.....were not from yesterday, they were from May 18th, after the Preakness. 

So, they're nothing really that new. Yesterday you got the raw version, unfiltered by focus groups or handlers (or his wife).

In a sport where we shake a man or woman's hand after a loss or a win and have done so for generations, the comments aren't up my alley. I believe in winning and losing with class. But as a fan of this sport I understand them perfectly.

No, the Triple Crown does not have to be changed, in my view, but the comments underscore the passion and monumental nature of this task in modern Thoroughbred racing. It's that passion we all feel, whether we buy yearlings, bet the sport, or watch it as a fan.  Some express that passion through a shrug of the shoulders, by blaming a jockey or a trainer, by throwing a racing form at a TV screen, by seeking out others in a social media therapy session. For California Chrome's owner, a fiery cowboy hell bent on winning the Triple Crown,  it was turned up a notch. Considering he has slept, eaten and breathed the Triple Crown trail for months to see it come down to a thud in two minutes and thirty seconds, it should not really be too surprising, I guess.

The Belmont Stakes Is Upon Us

I've been a little busy lately, so there has not been too much action here at the web log, but I come back with a post that is a) Really hard to find b) interesting and c) unlike anything you've seen before.....

..... A Belmont Stakes pick blog!

Ya, I don't normally do these, but what the hay, it's the Triple Crown after all.

From the rail out.

Medal Count: I think this horse is rapidly improving. He seems very sound and has some ability. He's worked well, his internal fractions show some sneaky talent. He handles dirt fine. Nothing not to like and I can't believe we'll get 20-1, even with Chrome overbet.

The Champ: Most likely winner, I feel. He has the most talent and is the fastest horse on paper. There are no holes with this horse. My fair odds are somewhere around 8-5, and since I will never get that, I can't bet him.

Matterhorn: He has a high mountain to climb.

Commanding Curve: This was my Derby bet (I would find the link on twitter but I am too lazy), and I do think he is very sound and bounces around out there like a happy little clam. I think he is simply not as good as Medal Count and the Champ.

Ride on Curlin: He'll probably be overbet. I don't like him much at all.

Matuszak: Pitching.

Samraat: Non-flashy, one speed plodders tend to win the Belmont. He is a real plodder. In fact, he might be one of the most boring horses ever. He might win, but I won't have him anywhere.

Commissioner: This horse strikes me as one with problems. I don't have any inside Joe Drapian Dragnetty information, but it's what I feel. In his last he did better than I thought he would, so maybe I am wrong about this horse, but I would not bet him with a Churchill Downs executive's expense account money. 

Wicked Strong: A case can be made, and is being made, that he is ready to fire a big one here. He can and he might, but I simply think others are better right now.

General A Rod: If he hits the ticket, I ain't cashing, maybe even if I hit the all button.

Tonalist: Looked great last time, seems fairly fresh. I can't play him. He's steamy and he might not get a good trip from out there.

Selections:

Medal Count - California Chrome - Commanding Curve - Tonalist

Supers: 1-24-2411-ALL, 1-2411-24-ALL, 24-1-2411-ALL and 1-24-ALL-2411

Happy Belmont day and good luck at the windows everyone.

Disclaimer: If you bet with me you deserve to lose money at a tremendously fast rate. The above picks are for entertainment only. When the 1 2 4 and 11 run badly, you are free to come back to the Web Log and laugh hysterically at me. You are not able to sue. And please, do not take the above picks if you are taking anything for back pain, internal bleeding or hives, as the use of them could interact and make you into a terrible horseplayer. Past returns of my picks - i.e. an ROI of like zero - are probably evidence of what future picks will be - i.e. an ROI of like zero. If you are under 18 please no wagering, unless you get someone older to wager for you like everyone does. Ptpblog ®

The Skinny on the Churchill Numbers: Bettors Are Clearly Saying No

Back in April when Churchill raised takeout rates on an already teetering betting product, many industry watchers and horseplayers wondered what might happen. After 22 racedays, it looks like we have our answer.

Total handle, including the Oaks and Derby Days, are off $31.9 million.

As noted when the takeout increase was enacted - and the fact that Oaks and Derby Days will skew any numbers - it was the rest of the meet that mattered, via a hike in rates was sure to be detrimental to handle. This was a fairly common opinion in horse racing land at the time, shared by many:

Blind man can see Churchill wants more money on Derby day and doesn't care if the rest of the meet collapses.
— Pullthepocket (@Pullthepocket) April 10, 2014

Similarly, after the Derby, Tom LaMarra in the Bloodhorse wrote:

"The six-day Derby week total handle of $253.8 million dropped almost 2% from $258.5 million last year. HANA said it believes there were a number of bettors who didn't wager into the pools, and that the true test will come as the regular spring meet progresses through its June 29 conclusion."

What we are seeing when one weeds out the Oaks and Derby is nothing short of devastation:

Total handle year over year is down $30.6 million or 27%. Per race handle is down 22.5%.

They are precariously close to becoming negative in terms of revenue for the meet, despite the big "EBITDA" gains made on Derby Day that they trumpeted. 

The current narrative that the field size loss (about three quarters of a horse per race) has been the culprit for the handle losses is a red herring. The elasticity (academically studied in 1998) for field size losses is only -0.6. But the data doesn't jive either.

On June 1st Churchill Downs had 68 entries. In 2013, same day, they had 66.

The handle was down $1,023,641 or 21.2%.

Last Monday there were 78 entries versus 77. Handle was off almost one million dollars.

Not to mention, tracks like Belmont have lost a similar amount of horses this year, yet handle remains fairly strong. Last year, in fact, Belmont lost a third of a horse per race, and handle was up 2.42%.

Horseplayers, for whatever reason that floats your boat, are saying no to Churchill Downs, and are doing it in spades. This should not be surprising. They raised a price on a product that was not very appealing, making it even less appealing to the general public, and discerning horseplayers. No multi-million dollar big board, an excellent race caller like Larry Collmus, or all the bells and whistles in a world can fix that.

They've got serious issues in Louisville, Kentucky. Racedates will likely be cut precipitously for next year, and the horsemen - who are reticent to do that at anytime - will likely have to go along with it. That's what happens when you concentrate on corporate "EBITDA" for a big day and forget about the people who pay for purses the other 364 days: Your betting customers.