Pari-Mutuel Studies, Nyquist & Expectations

Good day everyone.

Nyquist's Florida Derby win (we chatted about the race in yesterday's post) continues to cause a case of the 'yabuts', which has plagued this horse since last fall, and, in fact, has plagued many horses in this sport. Nyquist keeps doing exactly what he's supposed to do, but it's never enough.

Last fall, he staggered home in his first effort at any distance, which forwarded the narrative that his breeding told the tale that he was suspect for 8.5 furlongs or more. At the Breeders' Cup Juvenile he was the quintessential dead on the board horse, and if you liked him, you were like some sort of freak that doesn't know breeding. After he won the Juvy, he cleared the 8.5 furlong bar fine, but the Beyer wasn't high enough and of course "Songbird would have dusted him."

This season, he has seemed to be a horse, again, who everyone is waiting for to lose. They're looking for someone else. For a time, that someone else was Mohaymen; until Saturday, when he beat him, too.

Now, once again, the Beyer is not huge, and Mohaymen didn't fire. Both are true, but sheesh, can we give the colt a little respect?

There's a chance that this group - which has seen no huge figs run yet (here's your handy primer on that, with all major fig makers)  - is not going to see a huge fig run. Nyquist might be the best you're looking at; at 9 furlongs or 10 furlongs (especially, if the 'class' of Uncle Mo carries him).

Sure he might be more The Factor or Goldencents and not suited for a smashing last quarter mile in the Derby, but maybe he's still good enough. If he does win, I hope he gets credit for being a very good horse, instead of looking for excuses why he won. But if history is any indication, I doubt he will.


An interesting study is being completed which looked at over 30,000 NYRA races this century. There are some hard and fast numbers on which field size is best to maximize handle by pool, a look at takeout rates, and other metrics.

It fascinates (shocks) me to no end why more of these real studies are not embraced and funded by the sport of horse racing. Horse racing is a bog of inefficiency, with disparate tracks, ADW's, off track betting, rebates, takeout systems that can not be held as control variables etc. Unlike a Wynn casino who can drop slot takeout from 7% to 6% to see what happens to revenue, racing needs to look at numbers in a very detailed way.

NYRA should be commended for offering up their data so a study like this could be completed. Let's hope it's the first step in a new movement in the sport to model more, to allow it to make sounder decisions.

Enjoy your Monday everyone.

Florida Derby

Good Sunday morning racing fans and bettors.

Yesterday's Florida Derby saw the much anticipated match-up between Nyquist and Mohaymen materialize into a match-up between Nyquist and, well, nobody. The horse that 'can't get nine furlongs' keeps getting it just fine it seems, stopping the timer in 1:49.11 on a sticky track for a 116 TimeformUS figure.

The winner looked to be running out in the lane, and the pace was slowing at a pretty stout rate throughout the mile, with the third quarter covered in :25 and a last eighth in a respectable (especially for a horse who 'can't get nine furlongs'), 12.3. For energy distribution types, the splits were good for a front-runner to run a decent number.

While Nyquist did what he was expected to do, the big horse of KM's did not. The horse that has always looked like a seasoned, smart, sports car threw a clunker. Whether he i) didn't like that surface, ii) didn't come to race, or iii) was sore is anyone's guess, but he was so flat that other flat objects bowed to him. The wide excuse is bogus, in my view, because he could not engage willingly, never picked up the bit and showed absolutely nothing at all.


I'll pitch that race. He could be a horse I'd bet in the Derby.

For sharpies who found Derby futures on an exchange somewhere's, or bet with your friend Bob, you made a good move betting Nyquist yesterday at around 4PM. It was probably the only sound play at that point. Derby futures in the US are in the system that was invented in Kentucky in 1905, so you'll get the closing price today.

As for Nyquist, who physically looks more like a sprinter or miler to me, it's hard to discount him in five weeks. It doesn't matter if he can 'get 10 furlongs' (notice the goalposts always move with these horses?), to me. Hard Spun and Bodemiester both went crazy fractions and almost won the Derby; in fact, if Street Sense gets blocked and IHA runs into some traffic they both win the Derby off that trip. Speed wins races and is a tremendous asset. Nyquist sure has that.

Florida Derby day did $32 million. As we've talked about before, world-wide the sport of horse racing is sputtering some, but the big events are, like other big events in sports, driving eyeballs. It's not just regular fans looking at the day, either, as witnessed by the $440,000 the Rainbow Six took yesterday. Regardless, you have to give Gulfstream some props. They try hard to bring in the bet, and promote the heck out of their big cards.

I hope y'all enjoyed the day. Have a nice Sunday.

Philadelphia Park to Uncle Frank? Handle is Sure to Zoom

A jolt of energy for Parx?

John Pricci broke some news yesterday - Philly Park is supposedly under consideration to be purchased by Frank Stronach.

This purchase, if it goes through, would likely inject some energy into the mid-Atlantic region of tracks, and create a circuit, which should increase field size and improve racing quality. In addition, Parx under the Stronach umbrella would likely complete revamp the betting menu, moving takeout to reasonable levels.

That should, in my view, massively increase handle. We have some history to go by.

When Gulfstream took over the Calder meet, handle soared (for the apples to apples 40 day meet) from $58 million to $142 million. This was achieved through consolidation of the circuit, changes to the betting menu and using the GP brand to re-brand Calder. It is also pertinent to note, this was done with Calder not even having a grandstand.

Philadelphia Park (OK, Parx, I can't help myself), has some serious revenues. About $500 million dollars are earned through their slot machines per year, resulting in massive purses for the Keystone State flagship track. This has not translated to higher handle.

I would predict that if Frank ends up owning and managing the track, we'd see a consolidation of racedates, and if the betting menu is revamped, a doubling of average daily handle within a year.

What we've seen lately in racing is a consolidation of dates, and fewer races put on just for the sake of putting on races. This, if passed, is simply another spoke in the industry maturation wheel.

Note:

ICYMI, more racing handle, the changing business, and customer appreciation ideas were discussed at the TDN, in an Op/Ed.