Florida Derby Fun

Yesterday's Florida Derby card was a whopper, with almost $50 million pouring through the windows. I don't know what it is about the prep races, but they constantly amaze -- the Pegasus World Cup card, with lots of good racing, can't seem to hold much of a candle to some of them.

The two main stories - Maximum Security and Hidden Scroll - caused quite a reaction in horse racing land.

Sometimes I wonder the conversations trainers have with owners.

"Your colt doesn't seem like much, so we'll start him in a maiden $16k claimer."

Whoops.

Sure, Maximum Security strolled through pedestrian splits, but he did storm home like a decent horse should, and deserved the chocolates. Twitter was slightly impressed, but once again, the race's chatter was more about the trainer, than the horse. This fellow is a lightning rod, as most bazillion percent trainers are.

Adding a little conspiracy and fuel to the fire, Servis's interviews, prerace, about two of his charges (including Maximum Security) mysteriously seemed to disappear.

Frankly, I didn't have much of a problem with his comments about his Florida Derby entrant. He didn't know how his horse would do, and saw early pace in the race that might result in his charge laying just off it. That seems common sense. And, we have to remember, this is the trainer who debuted the Florida Derby winner in in a 16 claimer.

In terms of storyline, I find Hidden Scroll much more interesting. And I think it exhibits the worst characteristic of Derby season - namely, sometimes odd things occur when there's a bouquet of roses at the end of the very abbreviated road.

Yesterday, Hidden Scroll's team used a $1M race to try and teach him to rate. I feel like typing that again, because it sounds so bizarre to me. We all saw his Fountain of Youth where he was mercilessly run at by a 140,000-1 shot, and he needed to for seasoning, yes, but in a prep race trying to get Derby points?

I like Hidden Scroll. I think he has a giant motor, but rushing him to make a Derby with a fragile mind doesn't seem optimal to me. Knowing full well I am judging this without "walking a mile in another's shoes" because I've never had a Derby type horse, it still feels creepy to me. When the Derby is involved, people, in my view, do some strange things with their horses; things they'd otherwise not do.

Hidden Scroll was terrible yesterday - he was all done after 7/8's - so he wasn't winning even if they used his speed like they should have, in my view. And in the grand scheme of things where Derby horses get chewed every year, it might just be another example of the Derby's Medusa. But with this talented guy, I hope he's given some time to get his head on straight and is allowed to become a racehorse on his own terms.

That's my 2 cents...... typed with full realization that's probably all it's worth.

Have a nice Sunday everyone.

Complaints About ADW Splits Miss One Big Thing

When a business or industry is losing revenue, I often find there's a pretty huge blame game that goes on; especially in the age of disruption of traditional business models. Many times these can miss the mark. When something changes there is some pain involved, and that pain is usually not solved. You can never really go back.

Today, Apple announced a new initiative called "Apple News +". One of the features of the offering (it includes magazines and the L.A. Times as well) is a subscription to the Wall Street Journal.

"It [partnering with a tech company] will enable us to get our journalism in front of millions of people who have never paid for journalism before." said WSJ's publisher.

There is risk - the WSJ monthly subscription, of which they have 1.7 million subscribers, goes for $39 a month. The Apple deal is nowhere near that - it's $9.99 a month for a host of publishers - so the potential revenue cut is real. Also, rumor has it that Apple will retain 50% of the revenue, as a reseller.

The WSJ believes the value lies in broadening the tent in readership, so they have a chance at a vibrant future, in an ever-changing landscape. This has been a tough week for journalism, but it's pretty good news that in response to the new partner, the WSJ has hired fifty new editors and writers.

When we compare their strategy to racing's in the age of ADW's it's pretty much a 180.

ADW's don't take near 50% of the revenue to put your races in front of their customers, but we often hear how they're pirates, and the model is broken. Every fiber of the industry wants more of a cut. It's a constant complaint.

We often hear about racetracks not selling their signals to ADW's because they want these existing customers for themselves.

We hear about racetrack ADW's being better for the sport, because there is an off-chance more revenue will come from existing customers.

We hear about cannibalization of existing customers when or if someone wants to offer a new service.

Notice the difference?

The Wall Street Journal is talking about getting their product in front of "millions of new people" in a quest for growth, and is willing to partner and take less of a share as risk. All racing seems to be  worried about is existing customers (I used that adjective three times above), and that they get too little of the pie.

There's a difference between the current state of racing and publishing, that's certain. However, the broad point I believe is strong. When you are trying to expand a tent in the new gambling and technological age, you won't do it efficiently by yourself. If you try to do it alone, everyone is left fighting for the same customer, and your product, your R&D and offering struggles.

Asking for 50% of a falling revenue number every year still results in falling revenue. It's especially a problem when you have no real hope of growing.

Have a nice evening folks.

Internal Horse Racing Data & Industry Metrics .... Pffft

There was a neat article today on Marketing Dive, talking about big companies and their new approach to consumer data in a rapidly changing consumer landscape.

"Speakers admitted that solving these problems will not be a quick-hit fix, but instead done over time and through deeper collaboration, both internally and across the industry. For a category that's notoriously competitive and protective of its first-party data, that could take some serious adjustments." Rather than be protective, give everyone in the organization all the data," she <Mars Wrigley's VP> said. "It's all content without context — which is what we provide. Connecting the dots is the power."

In effect, across many mediums and products, the industry (and specific companies) themselves must be nimble with consumer insights data. One way Pepsi is going about this, is by empowering its employees, as well as academics and others, to be able to access data.

"In a few weeks, PepsiCo will roll out a new insights and content communication suite. "Historically, we try to solve problems ourselves and we think our problems are unique," Warner said, echoing Gansle. Pepsi has spent time talking to thought leaders, including CPG marketers, academics, experts, people from start-ups and technology solutions, pooling resources in an open source way. "We're all trying to solve same thing," Warner said. "Being totally secretive is not going to work."

This interests me in a racing context, because the industry is "totally secretive". When I want global racing data in North America, I often email o_crunk. And sadly, when the industry wants global data, they do that too. Sometimes he even has enough data to answer their questions, somehow.

I don't expect Churchill or Magna to share betting behavior data, even if it meant a stronger more prosperous industry; they are who they are. But in an industry that so often copies each other - jackpot bets anyone - it might be a good idea.

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.