But, as I scan things this morning, the polls are where they were three months ago; pretty close.
For all the retweets and tweets, stories about how bad someone is, or was, or will be, I have believed from the start, the race is a perfect example of behavioral economics and a simple buying or not buying decision.
"How bad off am I where I will choose to cast a vote for someone who I know is a flawed candidate?"
This is the same decision most people make when they purchase.
- Pointing out what a buyer stands to potentially gain from buying your product requires a leap of imagination on their part – they have to picture themselves in a new and better place by having bought from you. This type of imaginative and creative leap isn’t always easy to take, and can be tenuous.However, claiming that they will no longer suffer the existing pains that they currently do is much more grounded in reality, based on the very human notion of fleeing losses. They already have this very real pain point, something they live with on a day-to-day basis. Once they have the conviction that you relate to and understand this pain point, and that you have the power to remove it, they will be much more convinced.
Yesterday we looked at exactly the same thing with horse racing. Pain points.
Another item cropped up that illustrated this point yesterday -- The marketing deal which blocks TVG from showing any races on the Breeders' Cup undercard.
The comments are pretty scary. Both fans and horseplayers are slowly having enough of this.
This is why, in my view, horse racing is very tough to sell, to both new people and existing customers, and it explains why existing customers, like Lenny Moon recently, simply get up and leave.
If you leave you "will no longer suffer the existing pains that you currently do" - no more high juice, marketing deals, having five accounts to bet all tracks, post drags and all the rest.
That's been trumping (no pun intended) the positive aspects of the sport. It's enhanced because (for regular customers) it's a 300 day a year vocation. It's not a twice a month restaurant, or a vote in an election.
During this election cycle, most people are tweeting and retweeting and facebooking their choice on in a sometimes agonizing, cathartic exercise. Horse racing customers go through similar feelings each day, but they don't do that; they just quietly leave.