Do You Think You Can Beat the Races? Here's Your Test

In horse racing you'll find a lot of opinions, some of which are right, wrong or debatable. One that is considered an immutable law of racing, however, is that winning long term is very hard; so hard in fact, that without lower takeout through rebate, I'd submit only a handful of people could ever hope to beat the rake.

What makes the game more difficult than ever, in my view, is that yes, information is more flowing now, and fields are shorter which makes chalk more formidable. But more than that, one piece of truth has been harder than ever to test -- if you can't win while betting only the win pool, you don't have enough skill to beat exotics. Exotics are everywhere, and for newer players they're a black hole of bankroll death because the rake is high, and ticket structure (along with keeping your wits about you through inevitable bad losing streaks) is a learned skill. You can, and will, lose money faster than ever before.

With that, I was perusing the interweb and saw this:  A 10% win rake offer from DRF until September 15th at selected tracks*.

If you've ever wanted to learn if you have what it takes to beat the races (and can't get a proper rebate structure to test your skill) this, in my view, is a perfect test. Bet win, pay ten points, and at the end of the test see what your ROI is. If, again this is my opinion, your ROI is in the mid to high nineties or better over this time (betting regularly, not spot playing), you're on to something.

It's really difficult to find proper pricing in racing, if you're serious about trying to beat it. It's more difficult than ever. With a win bet test, and if successful, seeking lower takeout with a bigger bankroll, the game gets a whole lot easier to figure out.

Have a nice Monday everyone.

* fine print, ID, VA, and (of course) California residents are not allowed into the offer. I feel so sorry for California players. I don't know how you even function as a customer of this sport.


Ron said...

Without significant rebates there's no chance. Lately I've been playing a game called guess the final odds. At the track I'm currently playing, horses go into the gate at 3-1 and leave anywhere from 8/5 to 5-1.

Anonymous said...

Your sympathy for us Cal players is warmly appreciated but I must admit is mostly for nought. Most of the daily regulars I knew have either kicked the bucket or have left for casino gaming. This mostly happened sometime back in the era of ~17% takeout/rake but began earlier with the coming of the state lottery games. I’m not sure who’s left in the ~23% blended takeout world.

I have an online account that provides the wide platform that Cal simulcasts do not. I play so little now and very casually (i.e. tiny bets), that I can forget/ignore major race days – I just don’t miss them. Cal racing has been off the radar for me since the last jump to ~23% blended. Where I can get interested and play real money is Kentucky Downs (AKA Brigadoon) and to a lesser extent, the BC. I can still sit and watch races all day long. But regular serious betting, meh.

I’m just biding my time until Cal racing crumbles into dust and the players here can perhaps get a level playing field.


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