Wednesday, February 26, 2020

The Bet/No Bet Decisions Can Be Humdingers

If you ask anyone who gambles they'll share stories about a score, or a time in the recent or not-so-recent past.

Often this score or story will be of an angle, or barn change; a tactic on an exchange, or betting the chalk in certain situations at hockey or football.

The story usually ends with, "that doesn't work anymore".

If there's something we need to do in gambling, it's roll with the punches, because being too late on leaving an angle or power rating, or horse, or trip or replay or bias note, can pretty much kill a bankroll.

I thought about this again this past Monday, not wholly in the above context, just to illustrate a point (one which may or may not be valid).

At Woodbine, where the pick 5 is generally a decent bet, the late edition was relatively boring to my eyes. However, Ryan on the twitter - a venerable, very good Woodbine pick 5 player - tended to like the sequence. He was focused on two horses - trotters in race 7 and 9.

Both trotters were, to me as well, live winners. But the reason, in my view, was obvious. Both fired home well, replay watchers certainly would be on them and if you follow the races fairly religiously, they looked like slam dunk pick 5 plays.

But really, they weren't heavy chalk, and neither was a morning line favorite (one was 6 or 10-1 I think). Technically they should be decent pick 5 plays. And most certainly, twenty years ago, when the pools were fuller, and dead money more prevalent, they'd be top notch bets.

But my nagging brain on being different - having to have something bettors would not see in virtually any sequence - led me to stay off the bet.

My question to you (as similar every day gamblers) - We know we have to be different to make money, but do we take the wish to be different too far sometimes? Are we leaving money on the table, just to be different?

Sometimes I wonder. Because we're unconscious competent at certain meets that we play religiously, do we (wrongly) believe something is more obvious than it really is, and we're pitching horses, or deciding not to wager horses we should be?

Have a great day everyone.

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