Capping the Cappers

Beemer had ITP on his show yesterday, and I found it a good listen. You can listen right here

If you read this blog over the years you're probably interested in the gambling side of the game and I am sure you agree with most of what ITP had to say, and likely try and make decisions based on it. 

A few things I found interesting. 

Playing (keying) the morning line mistake in late legs of a serial bet - edge or foe? Five or ten years ago I think it was an edge, and like most things when money gets sharper, like ITP notes, it goes away. Are we at the point where we fade the 10-1 ML horse that is going to be 2-1? A case can probably be made we should. 

ITP's grid attempt was a neat exercise for those who play in that fashion. Most decent pick n players I know use a corollary of that. Simplified for me - find a leg or two where the field feels blah and do our best to find one (or two) horses who will be prices we could see winning. Just use them as "A's". B's don't matter because the B's will trigger a payoff we probably don't want. Of course I am not speaking about a ticket worth $512 (if you're that type of player), but more along the $24 or $36 narrow ones seeking value for little outlay. 

Speaking of hits we don't want, there was some good chatter about the mindset of not having to win at these tickets. Like we talked about a bit ago, it's Pick n Disease. Why do we bet $15 to win on something at 4-1 with $9 in exotics and we fully accept losing the bet, but if we spend $24 on a pick n we have to cover everything so we win? It doesn't make sense, right? We invest far too much mentally into them. We can bet $20 and expect to lose. The game is winning, not hitting. 

What's difficult for many of us with this topic, in my view, is that we have to work really really hard to string four or five winners in a row. It's been a task since forever. Now we have ITP telling us we have to not only hit these tickets, but we have to handicap the handicappers! 

But, it's just reality. With sharper and sharper handicappers; with more and more bigger money being bet, and smaller transactional handicappers priced out of this game, it's just the way it is. It's more DFS than our grandfather's pick 4's, and we always need to be cognizant of that. Those who don't adapt will likely get left at the gate when playing horizontals.  

Have a great Wednesday everyone. 


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