It's Fun to Watch Casual Football Bettors Move Towards Us, the Horseplayer

We've got to analyze the upcoming 9 furlong turf race and we notice the chalk won against a similar group at the same distance a month ago, wire to wire. The splits were all around 25 and the last eighth was a sprint home. We're fading the horse for a horse who, in the same race, came 6th. 

We knew the leader got its own way and has a huge turn of foot. We know our horse, if circumstances were different is easily as fast. He got stopped up at the quarter, then had to take the 4 high path when the outside path wasn't good in the first place. And he's a bit more of a plodder. 

This is done each and every day by us, as a matter of course. 

Meanwhile in football, the Dallas Cowboys beat the Detroit Lions 24-6 and our Cowboy minus 7 bet was pure gold. Gold I tell you. I'm gonna quit my job because I am so smart.

It's really not that way anymore. The people watching the Dallas Detroit game are analyzing it now. Just like we handicap, and have handicapped horse races for every day of our lives. 

Dallas was leading 10-6 in the 4th. Detroit scored what looked to be a go ahead touchdown. Instead of it being called a touchdown and then changed on review to 1st and goal from the one -inch line, the line judge ran to overrule the back judge's touchdown call and marked the ball (wrongly) at the one yard line. Detroit rushed to the line, and fumbled. 

After they got the ball back, still at ten to six, the refs missed an obvious penalty that would've made Detroit first and ten from about the Dallas 35. Instead it was 3rd and 11 and the Lions QB threw a pick, resulting in a Dallas TD. One drive later and another almost pick 6, Dallas won 24-6. 

The game is not a game, the one event is not an event, it's a turf race. 

Adjusted scores for Sunday Week 7:
20 PIT - 20 MIA
35 KC - 27 SF
33 NYG - 23 JAX
23 CAR - 20 TB
24 DAL - 19 DET
24 TEN - 19 IND
22 CLE - 21 BAL
44 CIN - 19 ATL
20 GB -19 WAS
29 SEA -19 LAC
16 DEN - 12 NYJ
35 LV - 29 HOU https://t.co/zS84umkYa1

— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) October 24, 2022

Adjusted game scores are a thing. And they're pretty simple to understand - they're just an adjusted speed figure, or performance figure; again things that we've done in our heads or on paper for years. 

Serious sports bettors have adjusted and do so, for games based on circumstance, injury, etc. They've also tried to gauge a "true score". But now it's in the masses. Everyone looks at it. Everyone is doing it. 

To us, though, it's just another horse race. 

Have a nice Tuesday everyone.