The Selling of Picks

 A lot of us are left-brained people where things have to make some sort of sense in the flowchart that is our brains. If we can't compartmentalize something we get kind of shaky and uncomfortable, and possibly do crazy things, like bet into a non-mandatory jackpot super high five. 

One thing many of us can't understand is why someone who can win at sports betting would sell their picks. 

In the case of the NFL, for example, we have (primarily) two outcomes - we beat the spread, or we don't. We're not deciphering Python code or landing someone on Mars. If you, as a pick seller, are giving someone else your picks instead of wagering on them with your money machine, I can't intellectually come to a conclusion as to why. 

Really, in sports betting at least, we likely know the person selling their "pick" isn't being completely honest. It truly is the only explanation, in my view. 

Care to explain why your record has not been updated on site @unclephilslocks?

Ah, I know the answer. Because you’re hitting below 45% for both sports this season and want to keep up the facade of being a winning bettor. 🗑

Don’t buy picks from scammers 🛑#GamblingTwitter https://t.co/cq2OccLfK7 pic.twitter.com/aAgBwnijPZ

— betstamp (@betstamp) October 31, 2022

In horse racing, pick selling in this traditional sense (in this day and age, at least) is really not a thing. But using our best left brains with the same framework we used above, I think a case can be made it actually does make sense for a winning player to sell their opinion. 

Where the sports betting pick seller who actually wins has to hit a button - $500 on New England plus 4 - in horse racing it isn't that easy.  

The pick of the 6 in the 7th race is filled with simply more questions. How do we use the horse? What are the final odds? Did the surface change? Is the horse dead on the board? Did we miss something with the other nine or ten horses that the will pays show us we missed?

Even if you're the best handicapper in the world, picking that live horse is only part of the battle. Betting it properly is the rest. It's why you could be the best handicapper in the world and be flat broke. You might as well try to make something with your skill, shouldn't you? 

What I find interesting about our sport, versus the seedy underworld of scammers in the sports betting space, is that there are "winning pickers" out there who might not have the mental make up or skill to win long-term, but are providing players with some excellent ideas and content. Many times for free. 

Think if horse racing had what sports betting has - lower juice, tons of data, and a massive audience. That would provide some of our sharpest pickers a market to actually sell into. And in my view, unlike in sports betting, it would make perfect sense. 

Have a nice Monday everyone.