Wednesday, May 15, 2024

A Good Handicapping Habit (from an NFL Quarterback)

I was listening to the Bussing with the Boys podcast yesterday, where the guest was Prime Time Cousin Kirk, and he told what I thought was a very interesting story. 

In 2014, he was being pulled every which way with his time, and he said he never felt comfortable on game day. He felt he didn't have everything down, and with the dysfunction of the then Redskins ownership and locker room, it made it progressively worse. 

He was not playing well and his wife told him he had to schedule blocks of time when things would get done - he had to create a routine. He built (the man is an obvious geek with stuff like this) a spreadsheet and followed it. 

When Friday evening came around, he felt he had nothing to do. He felt fully confident on game day. 

He said it was the big reason he threw for 5,000 yards and his team made the playoffs the following year. He's been doing the same routine since. 

For regular people like us who remember taking an exam, I assume it's a similar feeling. Confidence breeds results. 

This story struck a nerve, because I made a point of doing similar with my handicapping this year. 

For example, on Tuesday evening I get done my 'capping work for Thursday. When I open the PP's on Thursday, I will have gotten what the odds board should look like in my mind before it opens. I will have an idea why the first time turfer is taking CAW money in pick 3's. I'll have an idea why an off claim horse is dead on the board. Or why a horse off a qualifier or set of works I loved looks like a solid single. 

Because I've done that work already, and wasn't scrambling, I am looking at holes in markets, rather than trying to work backwards to understand the board.  I've mapped out where I need to be, and where I don't in multi legs. 

This works for the other days of the week. For example, if I do my work for Thursday on Tuesday and can pass that final exam, I can have my first look at Saturday's exam on Wednesday evening. 

This game is brutally hard. Not hard like beating a Brian Flores green dog disguised blitz, but a different kind of hard. The rake is brutal, and we're competing against some serious sharps. I believe when we've done the work and are not blindsided short of time, we can perform a hell of a lot better. 

Setting blocks of time to get the work done in busy lives helps me greatly. The routine makes me confident on what I am doing is right. It gives me time to construct tickets and look for curve balls and be a better bettor. 

If you don't already have a routine, maybe it will help you, too.

Have a great day everyone.

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