Watchmaker, Will Take Charge, The Captain, Pet Rock and Various Other Musings

After a pretty interesting weekend, here are a few things that had me thinking, or caught my eye.

Nice job by Watchmaker talking about the weekend stakes, while injecting a thought on race riding. I think I bet three races this past weekend where I used my pace figures (which are good) and confirmed it with the Timeform Pace Projector to bet the early projected leader. Three times I was strangled to about 7th for no apparent reason.

Ditto happens in harness like Tetrick's reversal of form drives on Market Share, the winner of the TVG, this past two sessions.

Seth from Equidaily (he has a section on the TVG Pace, so I am sure harness racing thanks you Seth) has a link up today to a story about a jockey in Hong Kong, conversely, who got a 16 day ban for not race riding properly.  Hong Kong racing handle is up from about $8B to over $12B (US Dollars) since 2007, so they must be doing something right. 

Rock n Roll Heaven was a world class pacer. I probably rank him as high as a Rock n Roll Hanover or Art Major and I don't think too many would argue with that. Some might even have him second behind the Beach this century. He stood for $12,000 out of the box. To make the valuation of $12M work for Captainteacherous, he'd have to stand for over double that (unless my math is wrong). Before the TVG you could probably sell that sizzle, but after the TVG, a $25,000 stud fee is some pretty pricey steak. 

Allan touches on similar in the Timeform blog regarding Will Take Charge - a colt who earlier this year was pretty much forgotten (or was considered "one of those Lukas horses who kinda races like one of those Lukas horses").  The big fella has made a name for himself. The three year old year does not end in June.

What's in five years? Quite a bit. Five years ago pacers and trotters were flashing nowhere near the speeds they are today. The UFO bikes and others, aggressive catch driving putting up huge fractions and all the rest are probably the reason. Last evening, the nice pacer Sunshine Beach won the Progress Pace in 150.3, with a last quarter of 28, while the others toiled 4 lengths or so back in a battle for second. Five years ago, the Beach was scratched out of the Progress with sickness. He added that race back on his calendar, trying to become something remarkable: Retiring a World record holder on all three sized tracks as a three year old. He probably would've done it, because Dali won the Progress in 148.2, a then world record. No offense to Dali, but he was not within five lengths of Somebeachsomewhere. The 2008 crop was very, very fast and went good speed when it wasn't sheik to do so.

Along the same lines, almost each year, a hot three year old appears and people start comparing them to the Beach. It was like this for several years after Niatross in the 1980's (with Nihilator, Jate Lobell etc). What I think we found with Niatross and what I think we'll find with the Beach - it's going to be awhile before someone worthy enough to be mentioned beside them appears.

From an observer trackside at the Meadowlands on Saturday who handicaps better than most. "You could tell Pet Rock was no good going into the first turn". I think that's right. I watched him parade and he was on one line. Pet Rock is never a good parader (I know because I pitched him out twice because of it and he roasted my bankroll by winning), but that carried on into the race. Watch when he is first over - his head is turned to the right. He clearly had an off night.

I watched the Captain closely for clues about his effort, but I didn't see anything. He went a little funky gaited on the first turn, but he is not the smoothest horse to begin with. Unlike his clunker against Dedi's Dragon, he seemed to be engaged as well, keeping up under no urging behind that 53 half. I have spoken to a few people and they see nothing either, nor have they heard anything regarding an excuse as to why the colt could not pick up a check.  It is what it is, so far.

Racing Beard shares his thoughts on the Captain race, along with other tidbits here.

Bergman says why do we need four year olds to race when we have Foiled Again? Strangely enough, there are a few geldings this year whom will race for awhile - Lucan Hanover, Vegas Vacation - but we'll have to see if they are good enough to contend against the Foiled Again's of the world. I think the argument is a silly one anyway. Keeping more horses on track do a few things: Obviously you get more column inches and more buzz, however it's much more than that for me. Breeding has always been a bit of a shell game. A three year old races in restricted races and wins a pile of money. He is said to be the "next big thing" and retired with a stud fee over $10,000 without ever having to prove himself at four or five. Then that money is reinvested to try and find another one or three in the fall sales. I realize its the ecosystem and "the way we do things" but I still think (as a fan of the sport) it's nothing more than a form of three card monte. We read stallion ad after stallion ad telling us how great a horse is, with them rarely having to prove it.

I guess the sad thing is, is that the ecosystem is so far entrenched, when a horse does race well at four, and proves his mettle, he does not get a pot of gold. A Rock n Roll Dance and Pet Rock are world class animals who will stand in 2014 for modest stud fees. A hot three year old that couldn't hold either of those horses bridle on the racetrack can stand for double that each year.

Have a great day everyone. Thanks for reading.

Foiled Again Cements His Legend, Others Question the Captain's

Last night's TVG FFA Final at the Meadowlands was billed the race of the year and I really don't think that was too strong a wording. We'd get to see fast older pacers which is always a treat, but we'd also get to see them face North America's top three year old Captaintreacherous. Was the Captain as good as his 13 for 15 record suggested?

As most know, one of the big horses stamped himself an all time great, and his name is Foiled Again. The nine year old - making his 198th career start - took the lead around the half, backed down the three quarters (what a nice job by driver Yannick Gingras), and no one was catching him. His career earnings vaulted over $6 million, making him the highest money winning horse in harness racing history.

Right now, Foiled Again's popularity is at its zenith. In fact - as happens often when a popular horse wins and the euphoria of it is still on "ten" - people are now talking about him getting votes for Horse of the Year.

Conversely, the Captain's year, for some, is suddenly thrown into question. After getting towed into the race with a perfect second over trip, the Captain was ready to strike. Most everyone (you could hear Sam McKee almost willing it to happen), expected him to flip off that cover and come home, giving Folied Again a challenge. But that never happened. The Captain just spun his wheels, and not only did not hold his own, he was passed by horses, coming sixth.

I've been very consistent in judging the Captain this year. It's an opinion that I use for all horses in all restricted divisions every year.  With him, I did not buy into the superhorse narrative and if I dared say something like "he should've sprinted away from that horse but he barely held on under an all out drive" it cost me a few twitter followers, and got me flamed pretty good here in the comments section. Some insiders accused me of "never liking this horse" (I still don't understand why this brought such a visceral reaction from some of his fans). That was not true; I was just handicapping. Others who felt the same way, like the Racing Beard,  were just handicapping, too.  In fact, "not liking" or "hating" this horse is stupid language. I don't hate horses, and I think highly of the Captain; he's a good horse.

Last night and today, I find myself in the odd position of defending him. People are coming out of the woodwork all of a sudden saying "see I told you he was not that good". Other than the obvious - where were they before last night's race - it's folly to do that.

Is Pet Rock "no damn good" because he threw in a clunker last evening? Of course not. He is one of the finest four year old pacers to race since Real Desire; maybe better. The Captain, too, seemed to be not as his best, if you ask my opinion. I think he is talented enough to come third off that trip. Not only didn't he come third, he backed up getting picked off by Bolt the Duer, Sweet Lou and Modern Legend. I think he's better than that.

Whether that's right or wrong, it does not really matter to me. I have always said that I will wait until next year to judge where this colt fits. Just like we can not judge how good he is while racing against a crop that is suspect, we can't judge him on one race. I still believe he will have a tough time next year racing Open pacers - but I thought that before last night. Last night for some, it probably made them rethink "he's the second coming of his dad", but I since I was never one of those people in the first place, it had no real effect on me.

I am willing to give this horse a chance. He's a 147.1 pacer with a huge heart. And that's not chopped liver.

Other notes:

The handle for last night was around $3.5M, which I found a little soft, but still better than last month's Breeders Crown. The Big M put a lot of money in this race, in terms of marketing and such. I think they may be a little disappointed but I think they should hold their heads high. They all did a great job. Rome was not built in a day, and harness fans - long left out in the cold and ignored - all don't come roraring back in a week, or a month.

Reason #13421 fans are leaving? Market Share. Last week at 2-5, with new fans in the crowd for the opener, Boots takes him to the back and doesn't move until forever on a speed favoring track. This week? Right to the front. At PTP Downs, we pull a Hong Kong, get rid of this nonsense and finally show customers and their money some respect.

It's likely that Bee a Magician will be named Horse of the Year now. She capped off a 17 for 17 season, winning like she usually does - like it was a training mile. Although she has the same criticisms of the Captain - she is not racing much in terms of quality - it's how she does it that is eye-opening. She wins in world record times without even breaking a sweat.

The three year old filly pacing crop is a good one, and that's even without Iluvthenitelife. Shebestingin has found her feet and is starting to season. I look forward to seeing her face older mares.

Shake it Cerry is another horse making some noise. She is big and strong and looks very sound. I hope she's staked to the Hambo. Who knows.

Some folks think twitter is for trolls and sometimes that's correct (lord knows I can attest to that; I think I've been called every name in the book). However, when people disagree, if they do it with respect, you can find some great comments. Racing Beard made a respectful and honest comment to Yannick Gingras today on twitter. It shows just how good Foiled Again is. At the beginning of the year a lot of people thought he was possibly losing a step (me included). Never, ever count this horse out. He is an amazing specimen. One that we're lucky to be able to watch.

Thoughts on Tonight's TVG Pace & A Few Price Horses For the Card

Today is a great day for horse racing. In the afternoon, several exciting tilts are occurring at Aqueduct and Churchill. There's plenty of chatter about that. For harness fans, tonight's TVG card at the Meadowlands is very interesting highlighted by the TVG FFA Pace, featuring the Captain taking on older horses.

Can the Captain win this race? No use wasting too much ink, that was broached on page three of Harness Racing Update right here.

A look at the others.

Pet Rock is my most likely winner. He has a good post, is sharp, and is simply the most talented and effective horse in the older division this year. He is versatile, so iIf he gets any kind of a trip, unless he has an off night, he will be there.

Foiled Again is a horse who needs a trip of some sort. He is a grinder and needs to be in the thick of it. This is why his Meadowlands record is so poor - in many of his races he is coming from off cover, or from far back. That's not his game. I assume Yannick will place him on the front or first over, but in a field like this it is not guaranteed. He is surely going to be overbet.

The Captain. You can read the thoughts above over 1800 words, but this is a massive class hike for him - there will be no 55.2 first half strolls for him with a Lucan Hanover first up - and most importantly: he is sure to be overbet. As a bettor, I will let him beat me.

As for some others: Dynamic Youth looks over his head. First time Burke on Bettors Edge is something, and I would be using this horse underneath for a shot.  Bolt the Duer has tailed off, as has Sweet Lou in my opinion. Golden Receiver is totally up against it from out there, but if the track is speed favoring, I could see him hit the super. I can't give Warrawee Needy any more money after his last few from out there. With a lucky trip with some flow or a crazy half he should be fine, because he is amazing when he uses one brush, like he showed earlier in the year at Tioga.

The sneaky horse is Modern Legend. While at the end of the year the open horses have lost a little edge, he is as sharp as he has ever been in his life. He fought Foiled Again tooth and nail in the Breeders Crown, and last week he got an excellent prep off sickness. He has a really nice post to be in the race, and can use his speed and be first up if the horses settle, or sit back and let them go crazy, and pick up some cover. He is 15-1 morning line. I doubt you'll get that, but if you do I will be betting him right there with you. I will play him at anything 7-1 or over.

Most likely winner: Pet Rock

Blue Plate Upset Special ®: Modern Legend

Overbets: The Captain and Foiled Again

Superduper Longshot: Bettors Edge

Other (non-favorites) horses I will be giving a look on the card: Race 5 Dull Roar (15-1ML). In the Governor's Cup, Arthur Blue Chip (4-1 ML), in the Three Diamonds Act Now (4-1ML), in the 12th Fat Man's Alley (9-2ML), in the 13th Alsace Hanover (6-1ML)

Have a great day everyone. Enjoy the racecards and may you have good racing luck.