Saturday, November 30, 2013

Thoughts on Tonight's TVG Pace & A Few Price Horses For the Card

Today is a great day for horse racing. In the afternoon, several exciting tilts are occurring at Aqueduct and Churchill. There's plenty of chatter about that. For harness fans, tonight's TVG card at the Meadowlands is very interesting highlighted by the TVG FFA Pace, featuring the Captain taking on older horses.

Can the Captain win this race? No use wasting too much ink, that was broached on page three of Harness Racing Update right here.

A look at the others.

Pet Rock is my most likely winner. He has a good post, is sharp, and is simply the most talented and effective horse in the older division this year. He is versatile, so iIf he gets any kind of a trip, unless he has an off night, he will be there.

Foiled Again is a horse who needs a trip of some sort. He is a grinder and needs to be in the thick of it. This is why his Meadowlands record is so poor - in many of his races he is coming from off cover, or from far back. That's not his game. I assume Yannick will place him on the front or first over, but in a field like this it is not guaranteed. He is surely going to be overbet.

The Captain. You can read the thoughts above over 1800 words, but this is a massive class hike for him - there will be no 55.2 first half strolls for him with a Lucan Hanover first up - and most importantly: he is sure to be overbet. As a bettor, I will let him beat me.

As for some others: Dynamic Youth looks over his head. First time Burke on Bettors Edge is something, and I would be using this horse underneath for a shot.  Bolt the Duer has tailed off, as has Sweet Lou in my opinion. Golden Receiver is totally up against it from out there, but if the track is speed favoring, I could see him hit the super. I can't give Warrawee Needy any more money after his last few from out there. With a lucky trip with some flow or a crazy half he should be fine, because he is amazing when he uses one brush, like he showed earlier in the year at Tioga.

The sneaky horse is Modern Legend. While at the end of the year the open horses have lost a little edge, he is as sharp as he has ever been in his life. He fought Foiled Again tooth and nail in the Breeders Crown, and last week he got an excellent prep off sickness. He has a really nice post to be in the race, and can use his speed and be first up if the horses settle, or sit back and let them go crazy, and pick up some cover. He is 15-1 morning line. I doubt you'll get that, but if you do I will be betting him right there with you. I will play him at anything 7-1 or over.

Most likely winner: Pet Rock

Blue Plate Upset Special ®: Modern Legend

Overbets: The Captain and Foiled Again

Superduper Longshot: Bettors Edge

Other (non-favorites) horses I will be giving a look on the card: Race 5 Dull Roar (15-1ML). In the Governor's Cup, Arthur Blue Chip (4-1 ML), in the Three Diamonds Act Now (4-1ML), in the 12th Fat Man's Alley (9-2ML), in the 13th Alsace Hanover (6-1ML)

Have a great day everyone. Enjoy the racecards and may you have good racing luck.

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