In Chris's Bet With the Best book, a common theme from the players was about checking your results.
Are we good or better at a certain class, a type of wager; on sloppy days or fast ones; at harness or thoroughbred, or by track. Are we bad at MSW, or at Saratoga or Mountaineer over a large sample size?
Data and statistics are hard and they can fool us pretty easily. A losing streak at a track or wager for a month or two months, when one mostly wins, might not be what it seems. Variance is a bear.
We generally have to dig deeper. Then, hopefully answer a question - is it you (the venue or class or sport) or me (my handicapping and wagering).
I spent the better part of two days doing just that.
I currently have a massive divergence of betting results based solely on venue. And that venue is Mohawk Racetrack.
My play through each and every pool at harness racing "all other" is smooth. Variance is muted, and has been for quite awhile. My most voluminous betting handle is at the Meadowlands, and tracking it by month, by wager, things have a completely normal distribution.
Over the last three months at Mohawk, it's been nothing close to a normal distribution. The results are completely different than not only "all other" but also by historical results.
When I dug deeper, I found that not only win ROI is abysmally low at the Campbellville oval, multi leg wagers are as well. Digging into those, yes, I have had several potential scores the last months that had Portnoy type bad luck, however stripping those out, or even converting a couple, still shows bad multi-leg results (it's always wise to look at the median and strip out the noise with multi-legs because the hits are infrequent).
Regardless, I knew this was happening, and stopped investing in multi-leg wagers. My results have slightly improved at Mohawk, but on much less volume.
How can one be handicapper of the year in '26 at the Meadowlands and a dart throwing monkey at Mohawk, after years of decent to good results at both tracks?
On Saturday night a seasoned player sent me a text. He doesn't play Mohawk but did because of the stakes events and after watching it for a couple of days he typed, "they have tomorrow's newspaper at that place". Indeed, this is a point of view echoed by many, i.e., the horses who are going to win at Mohawk are crushed, the ones who are left alone have little chance in a fixed race.
I have had, through other conversations, people lament the mystery horse phenomenon in, say, leg three of an event (exhibit number 42 why newbies should not play much of their bankroll on multi legs); namely, a horse well bet, that smart handicappers would completely avoid. The Bax trotter in leg two of the late pick 5 a week or two ago (my fair odds around 15-1, bet to 4-5 and dropped 20 lengths), crushed many, many pick 5 tickets.
The other theory I have looked at is field quality. At the Big M I have avoided betting TM 68/71 and MADC races. I had previously cut my multi-leg play considerably on those because my results are poor.
At Mohawk, which is now racing 5 days a week, the horses are all racing (overracing) super frequently, and the classes are beginning to look like the Big M TM 68's. As well, to fill cards we've seen 8 conditioned claimers and pop-up series' which end up invariably in a drench battle.
My results on races I have tabbed "cheap" the last four months at Mohawk (hold your nose please): Win ROI -31%.
After spending some time on this problem the last few days I think I can answer the question: is it me or you?
I think it's both.
I am doing the right thing not playing sub-par classes as much as I did in 2022-2025, and I am also doing the right thing spending less on multi-leg wagers overall at Mohawk to avoid the "mystery/tomorrow's newspaper" horse.
If I do want to continue to play harness racing at the levels I have been at Mohawk (and despite good results, even the Big M), I will need to be better.
Kentucky slots (or historical racing, or whatever we're calling it) have wreaked havoc on us as serious horseplayers. Owners are not going to leave a zero handle, slot infused purse promised land for the big signals. I'm not going to suddenly be able to decipher a shipping 4 claimer in an 8 claiming condition at Mohawk or the Big M better.
So, in this tough game I find it's a never ending struggle. But struggle we must. I hope how I analyzed my own play above perhaps helps you with yours.
Have a nice Tuesday everyone.
