Tuesday, April 24, 2012

"Not Very Good Advice"

Thank goodness Betfair is doing some things in the US. Without them I would get fewer Jerry Jamgotchian emails in my inbox calling them names reserved usually for axe murders, and certainly fewer laughs.

Today, regarding the naming deal at Hollywood Park and new social media spend:
  • It bubbled to the surface during a California Horse Racing Board meeting at Santa Anita on March 22, interestingly, the day before Everett, 90, died. In attendance were Hollywood Park Chief Executive Jack Liebau and the U.S. chief executive of Betfair and TVG, Stephen Burn. Burn was there to observe and support Liebau. He said he was somewhat taken aback by what he saw and heard.

    "It seemed to me," Burn said, "to be a bunch of old men telling Hollywood Park how to market to young people. There was a lot of public showboating, and the advice they were giving was not very good advice."
Racing has had 135 years to get the younger generation interested in racing. It hasn't worked. Give some one else a shot.
Brennan looks at what happened last meet, and what's new for this meet at The Meadowlands.

Allan and the boys at HANA Harness have their pen and chip challenge starting this weekend. There'll likely be a few PP links and other handicapping items on the site.

There's more chatter on the New York Times story, this time from Mel Moser.He makes some great points, but once again, it's futile. This is not a Global Warming debate where a Phd can write a paper showing man has caused it, and another can write one showing it's perfectly expected and natural. This is a newspaper writing a story showing 5 horses die for every 1000 starters versus an industry who wants to say the number is closer to 3 per 1000. It's okay to debate, and Mel makes great points, but if we think we're going to shoot the messenger into submission over a disputed number, it's never going to happen.

San Pail lost his second race in a row for the first time since 2009 last evening. We surmised on twitter and here that he was not quite the same horse after his second start, recommending a bet against him, and I think that's proven to be correct. In that second start he was less keen - gapping at the half and had to be asked -  and he had to work to get by the pacesetter off as dreamy a trip one could ask for. He usually is on the muscle and very keen in fast splits and has been that way throughout his streak, or even his whole career. Giving him one more chance was easy - sometimes horses aren't at their best for one race - but I think last night and last weeks loss has confirmed it. He's still a really nice horse and should win a bunch of cash this season, but for anyone expecting another Horse of the Year type year, San Pail is telling you something different.

Moreso in harness than thoroughbreds, getting to know a horse's action, and how he or she races is most important. If you look at a teletimer it can show a nice time or an okay last quarter, but how a horse does it is more important than what the clock shows.It's worth watching replays, and it's worth comparing them to old replays with good efforts. Sometimes it can really pay off at the windows. Watching how keen a trotter is, is one of the very best handicapping items in the toolbox.

Have a great Tuesday everyone!

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