I've been reading the press, some sharp bettors and twitter for the past week or two, and conventional wisdom says the big Beyer horse - Bodemeister - will be chalk for Derby 138. Some even think he'll be as low as 3-1.
Without the benefit of seeing the draw, I think this won't be the case. I believe Union Rags will be the favorite for four reasons:
1 - The buzz on this colt is still stout, despite the loss and the lack of a big 2012 Beyer. The clocker types are going ga-ga over him.
2 - Familiarity breeds betting dollars. Last year in the Juvenile, a million or more viewers watched him, and thought he was miles better than Hansen. Not a day goes by it seems that someone says he traveled further than the circumference of Mars more than the winner. There are fans, both casual and rabid, wanting to see him get revenge and make the Trakus number look like gold. Think Zenyatta. She was 4-5 against Blame in the Breeders Cup Classic. Everyone saw her close from St. Louis to almost run him down. She'd probably would have been 1-5 in a rematch two weeks later. People love closers who almost win.
3 - The "Trip Over The Track". Churchill can be quirky, and loving Churchill - which he seems to - makes him a formidable first choice.
4 - He's currently the chalk in offshore books and at Betfair, despite the Bode-Beyer talk.
Unless Bodemeister draws an advantageous middle post, and Union Rags draws outward of 17 or the rail or two hole, I think he's a slam dunk for favoritism come the First Saturday in May.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Similar
Carryovers Provide Big Reach and an Immediate Return
Sinking marketing money directly into the horseplayer by seeding pools is effective, in both theory and practice In Ontario and elsewher...
Popular
-
One of life's many mysteries on gambling twitter is the Jackpot Bet. Oftentimes people like @shottakingtime, echoed by others, will pos...
-
Our wagering game is an incredible mental exercise for many reasons. And one of its characteristics I like best is the variety of thought wh...
-
There's something going on in horse racing today , but I have not really followed it. Instead, I've been thinking about two words we...
-
At Northlands Park Wednesday several rabbits were in the infield. This spooked one of the horses, and he took a tumble, sending driver Debbi...
-
Unless you are off the twitter grid (God bless you), you've no doubt witnessed the feud of the month(s) between ITP and some public raci...
1 comment:
Man, these t-bred blogs are crazy, you need four reasons now to be a chalk? Wow!
Anyhow, been crazy busy for like maybe 5 years now thought I would drop by.
Speaking of Zenyatta, just watched a similar monster of a woman destroy a field and win her 20th in a row...Black Caviar. She even had 211k to win on her in the Canadian pool, that's unheard of, especially for 2:39am! Can you imagine waiting until that late in the night to count how many dimes you made?
Continue the great work, will try my best to check in more often!
thewhip.
Post a Comment