I've been reading the press, some sharp bettors and twitter for the past week or two, and conventional wisdom says the big Beyer horse - Bodemeister - will be chalk for Derby 138. Some even think he'll be as low as 3-1.
Without the benefit of seeing the draw, I think this won't be the case. I believe Union Rags will be the favorite for four reasons:
1 - The buzz on this colt is still stout, despite the loss and the lack of a big 2012 Beyer. The clocker types are going ga-ga over him.
2 - Familiarity breeds betting dollars. Last year in the Juvenile, a million or more viewers watched him, and thought he was miles better than Hansen. Not a day goes by it seems that someone says he traveled further than the circumference of Mars more than the winner. There are fans, both casual and rabid, wanting to see him get revenge and make the Trakus number look like gold. Think Zenyatta. She was 4-5 against Blame in the Breeders Cup Classic. Everyone saw her close from St. Louis to almost run him down. She'd probably would have been 1-5 in a rematch two weeks later. People love closers who almost win.
3 - The "Trip Over The Track". Churchill can be quirky, and loving Churchill - which he seems to - makes him a formidable first choice.
4 - He's currently the chalk in offshore books and at Betfair, despite the Bode-Beyer talk.
Unless Bodemeister draws an advantageous middle post, and Union Rags draws outward of 17 or the rail or two hole, I think he's a slam dunk for favoritism come the First Saturday in May.
Most Trafficked, Last 12 Months
-
With the heaviest heart I am reaching out to all who are saddened by the news of Melissa's recent passing. I've seen and heard the k...
-
2024 marked the first year ever that Woodbine Entertainment did not put out a year end press release detailing their annual and year over y... -
Standardbred Canada has a poll up asking who is the greatest trotter who ever lived. These questions are fun, but really it is impossible t...
-
As most of you have heard, Charles Simon passed away yesterday at age 57 . Although a lot of you knew Chuck better than I, I still felt a s...
-
We'll all remember Memorial Day '24 because of the Met Mile as the day Ray Cotolo dressed up like a hot dog. Hope @RayCotolo au... -
On the Harness Edge this morning, I see that there is a story up about the BCSA offering their members up for driver and trainer interviews ...
-
Good day everyone! This week on Chris's podcast , I broke down how I try and do better making pick 'n' tickets today, from yeste...
-
Hello everyone! A few notes from the weekend action, and various other topics. First, how about that Preakness ride on Journalism? It'...
1 comment:
Man, these t-bred blogs are crazy, you need four reasons now to be a chalk? Wow!
Anyhow, been crazy busy for like maybe 5 years now thought I would drop by.
Speaking of Zenyatta, just watched a similar monster of a woman destroy a field and win her 20th in a row...Black Caviar. She even had 211k to win on her in the Canadian pool, that's unheard of, especially for 2:39am! Can you imagine waiting until that late in the night to count how many dimes you made?
Continue the great work, will try my best to check in more often!
thewhip.
Post a Comment