It's Always a Good Time to Play Vertically (Even on the Derby Card)

In the age of pick 4's and 5's and 6's and TVG tickets (and ITP ire), sometimes we have FOMO in not playing them. But most times, for me anyway in this day and age, verticals are where it's at. The transparency of the markets teaches us so much. 

Even on Derby cards. 

In the 9th on Derby Day, the board opened and Zulu Kingdom was bet in almost every pool. I saw a good many comments on twitter that they didn't have the strong open on the Bingo card. Frankly, looking at my numbers, neither did I. 

But there it was. And the funny thing? The exact same phenomenon was noticed in the horse's last at Tampa. The 'afterthought' was bet well and delivered. I suspect this is one of those horses that is better than we can see as handicappers. 

After being hit with the board for the second time in a row, I keyed the horse in the pick 4. 

In the pick 5 which was the previous leg, I spread the race. 

Even after watching the horse win again, I still don't think much of him, but I am clearly missing something, right? 

The vertical markets again helped. 

Flipping to the next, I was on Kopion, like many of you, including Chris at the Sport of Kings pod. It was apparent the morning line was wrong. 

However, the markets again helped me make a betting decision. It was still a soupy track where Kopion had no experience, he was inside. If the market opened soft I'd have to reevaluate, but it didn't. I keyed in the pick 4, and was happy, not sad to see the market confirm my beliefs. 

I don't want to misconstrue that somehow the market is always right; if it was we'd never bet a longshot, nor would favorites be beaten 60% of the time. But on plays like this, they help me decipher things more and more. 

For horizontals three races out we don't have the benefit of an odds board, and it makes things very tough. Sure the CAW's and sharps make good lines, but even they use the market to evaluate if their opinion is sharp or weak. And they pivot in real time just like we do. 

For any new player, or anyone looking to get better, I wholeheartedly am behind honing your skills in the super-tough 2025 game by playing more vertically. Transparency never goes out of style. 

Have a nice Monday everyone!