...... posted his follow up to his predictions on the O'Brien's on Saturday, so here you go! Thanks Greg.
I Am Not Kreskin
If you’re just checking out the Pull The Pocket Blog today, you’ll see a few posts down that I made some O’Brien Award predictions on Friday. Well, the awards were handed out Saturday, and needless to say, I was off on a few of them.
I think the error of my ways was not picking the best horse to race in Canada , instead of overall. I guess the voters don’t look at the races in the States, and maybe they shouldn’t. However, I would like to see Standardbred Canada say that then, and don’t even nominate horses that don’t have the success in Canada that they have in the United States .
For example, if you were just picking the best horses to race in Canada , Hana Hanover (who I picked to win three-year old filly pacer) probably wouldn’t even have been nominated; it would’ve been Milliondollarsmile or Mach You And Me. Same thing with Older Pacer, Mister Big (who I also picked) probably shouldn’t have been nominated; it should’ve been Artistic Fella or even Zooka or Secrets Nephew.
I also felt that Blair Burgess winning over Casie Coleman was a year too late. I said on the harnessdriver board that it was like a referee giving a cheap penalty call to your team because you’ve gotten three straight power plays. The stats don’t bear it out, but I felt Casie had even a better year in 2007 than she did in 2006, and part of the drop-off was because she was competing in bigger stakes events where the competition is tougher. Blair’s earnings dropped over $1 million from 2006 to 2007, and one horse, Tell All, made up $1.5 million of his $1.8 million.
The final thing that bothered me about Saturday night was awarding Horse of the Year to two horses, Tell All and Somebeachsomewhere. I predicted that Somebeachsomewhere would win it, but having had time to reflect, I really feel that Tell All should’ve won.
I remember watching Tell All in a non-winners of one or two race in March when I was in Toronto , and I know he had been racing before that. In a game where it’s tough to keep a horse going for a few weeks, let alone months at a time, he stood out to me this year. Somebeachsomewhere had six of the best starts I’ve seen by a two-year old, but his brilliance didn’t compare to Tell All’s brilliance and longevity, in my opinion.
And even if you believe that Somebeachsomewhere was superior, then award him Horse of the Year. There shouldn’t be any ties.
Anyways, I would like to congratulate all of the connections of the winners and the horsemen and women who walked away with awards. Even though I disagreed with some of the results, you should all be commended on your outstanding achievements.
Phil got his horse across for his Play of the Day at his blog today. Way to go Phil!
Jeremy Plonk at ESPN has a good article on the National Handicapping Championships. He notes that last year's winner went 0 for 15 on day one this year. Remember our post about losing streaks? Yep, they can happen to anyone.
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