Friday, June 10, 2011

$1.5M North America Cup Elim Preview

There is a little race going on in New York, however... the Cup elims are pretty darn interesting! As like most years we have very few solid betting prospects in the elims, and what you see is generally what you get and I won't go in expecting to find much value.

Here is my preview:

Elimination One: This leg is filled with speed, and Big Jim might not be able to intimidate like he did previously. What on paper looks like a Big Jim-Powerful Mist finish, perhaps it is not that easy. Custard the Dragon (7) might provide value, as might Rock to Glory (2). The latter did not even look like a horse two starts ago, but raced surprisingly well last week. Most likely: 3-4-7. Longshot chance: 2.

Elimination Two: This is a very interesting betting leg, with Feel Like a Fool (1), Up the Credit (4), Better Than Chaddar (2) and Shadyshark Hanover (8, with an error in the morning line), all with chances. By far the most visually impressive horse last time was Up the Credit, but he does have some issues, and a big back half like that can set up a possible bounce. Feel Like a Fool has done nothing too much wrong, and neither has Better Than Cheddar. This is one tough leg to pick, and if I were taking pick 4's I would have to go four or five deep here, which I hate, because on paper everyone will use those horses in the sweeps. Most likely 3-2-1-8. Shocker horse: Grams Legacy finally putting it all together to realize his massive potential.

Elimination Three: I love the way Ron Potter has brought Big Bad John (7) into this elimination. He stayed at home and protected his horse, because popping off early catches up with them. Often times 28 second last quarters at this level signal a problem, but I think it's by design with that 16 day break last month. As I mentioned last week I have always been a Roll With Joe (2) fan and he looked really sound last week. The Metro champ (1) drew the rail and has looked fine this season, although he might be a couple of fifths behind the best ones at this stage. I wish Dutch Richman was in leg one, because he has nice lines. Most likely: 7-2-1-5

Other notes:

Race 1 we get to see Blue Porsche. That is a solid horse, with a more than solid debut. He came back really well.

Race 2 marks the Canadian debut of the undefeated See You at Peelers. She will be a key for everyone, everywhere and rightfully so on paper, but I hated her gait last time. The other possible, Idyllic, did not impress me in the least last time, all out in a 28 and change last panel, and she was hot, as a lot of young horses are who are used to blinkers early. She is a total fade for me. I will be taking a poke at Tea Party Princess, probably with SYAP, because well, she's SYAP, and Honky Tonk Princess.

In the Open I thought Dalhousie Dave got absolutely torched last time and still raced well. One would assume we will see a no try in that spot from that post, but if they go crazy who knows.

Good luck everyone!

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