Science is the rage these days; analytics, Cosmos, Bill Nye the Science Guy. They're everywhere. I figured I'd jump on the bandwagon and give a Breeders Cup analysis that is solely based on science. Not conjecture, not on workouts, not on if I spoke with Hank Goldberg. Science. Sure it's link bait, but that's what we do here on the blog when we're not someone really famous like Ray Paulick.
Here we go.
1. Prayer For Relief: When I was in university there was this really smart dude who graduated a few years earlier as a Rhodes Scholar. He was super smart and a nice guy to boot. He parlayed his brains and expensive education into being a ticket scalper. He was at the dorm one day and had to get rid of two Madonna tickets, 11th row. I went and it was a fun show, even though I was not a big Madonna fan. Anyhoo, during the show she played Like a Prayer. That's really the only thing positive I can think of with this horse. He's 0 for 2014. Some people like him, but I think they're Madonna fans who probably have not thought this out.
2. Cigar Street: Joseph Kennedy was getting his shoes shined in September of 1929 - so the story goes. His shoe shine boy started giving him stock tips. He figured it was time to bail, he shorted the markets and was able to buy, I think, the state of Massachusetts. Similarly, the kid who was bagging my groceries the other day told me to bet this horse. I should pitch, but since I have a futures bet on this horse I will keep positive.
3. Imperative: This is a west coast horse, like Best Pal, but slower. Steve Byk, the DRF and anyone east of Wheeling West Virginia will have a conniption fit if he wins. I am pretty sure that the powers that be will never let this happen. Pitch.
4. Moreno: I have not followed his trainers' story, I admit, but reading twitter I think I remember seeing Eric Guillot practices voodoo. That in itself makes this horse tempting. I think his JCGC is better than it looks, too.
5. V.E. Day: I have bet Normandy Invasion a few times and each time he lost, sometimes at low odds. I wasn't living when Man O War raced to bet him, and maybe this has influenced me, but I don't like to (scientifically) bet any horse to do with war.
6. Shared Belief: Jim Rome is worth like eleventry trillion dollars. If this horse wins this, he will be worth eleventry trillion, three million dollars. MSNBC is a subsidiary of Comcast, who owns NBC. It might be far-fetched, but they won't let this horse win. At 8-5 do we really want to take that chance?
7. Bayern: Back in high school there was a track meet held at my school. One kid that was supposed to run in the 400 metre was sick and unable to go. Although I played sports for the school I never liked anything to do with track and had never run anything to do with track in my life. But the coach needed a fill in and asked me. "Just stay in your lane and run", were his instructions. I looked at the circle and it didn't look very long so I figured I could just sprint the whole thing. I'm pretty sure I was leading at the half way point by about ten lengths, but then I had to google milkshake. Lactic acid built up and I began to slow down; a plate of molasses could've beaten me the last 100 yards. I think I ran a 1:07 and came last. I hate track. Anyway, long story short, I think similar will happen to Bayern in the Classic.
8. Zivo: I like this horse. It reminds me of Zito and we know he loves training long distances dirt horses. This is a play for me, based on that science.
9. Toast of New York: The locale in the name might make the DRF guys love him, but this horse is secretly a Euro. They don't win on dirt, even if they're bred for it. Chuckaroo.
10. Footbridge: I've never seen this horse race, and horses I have never seen race are 1 for 30 in previous Breeders Cup Classic's. That science says we should ditch this horse as a selection.
11. Tonalist: In harness racing I hate when a horse races well in a certain style, after being beaten - through no fault of their own - in another style. In Thoroughbred racing this happens almost as often. In the JCGC, one race after being near the lead, jockey Joel Rosario said whoa, and took the horse miles off it. He'll do it again and be too far back. Science will win out.
12. Candy Boy: Science says his trainer is 0 fer in the BC. Science also says he kind of beat a track bias last time. Science also tells me to turn my thermostat down or global warming will kill us all, but hell, it's cold here today. I am really confused on this horse, but I think I will use him somewhere.
13. California Chrome: OK, so let me get this straight. The horse has a great post in post 13, which is never a good post. He needs to be outside horses which from the 13 could mean he's 11 wide. He needs to have his foot issues fixed, he needs to run a race he ran this spring, and if all that goes to form he could win. And I'm supposed to be betting him at 6-1?
14 Majestic Harbor: Never seen this horse race. He's like Footbridge with a worse post.
AE: If this horse gets in twitter will break and all analysis will be
rendered moot. The half will go in 43, the last quarter in a minute and
four fifths, Jose Canseco might hurt himself with a 9 millimetre,
televisions will be turned off. Everyone will leave before the cross
country daily double. The TOC might raise takeout to pay for the
carnage. Let's all hope this does not happen.
If you've made it this far you know a couple of things to be true: One, I have thought this through scientifically, and two, when I take a few days off work before a Breeders' Cup I have too much time on my hands.
My selections: Cigar Street-Zivo-Candy Boy-Shared Belief.
Good luck everyone.
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