Breeders Crown Friday Longs and Fades

Tonight is the first night of the dual evening Breeders' Crown. I'll be playing live on the twitter so if you want some picks that will probably scope sick afterwards you can follow me there. As for the Crown races themselves tonight, here are a few thoughts.

Race 7 - Aged Mare Trot

Last year's Horse of the Year Bee a Magician has been a shadow of herself this year, despite being in contention, or favorite almost all year. She reminds me a lot of four year old Rachel Alexandra; she's raced okay, but she is not herself. She was particularly flat last week and adds lasix. I suspect you might get odds if you like her, but she's been a fade for me all season and I can't change now.

I am not overly thrilled with anyone here, because they all look a little flat. Classic Martine is an obvious use and if somehow Charmed Life can race like she did a month ago, I think she airs, because at her best, she is probably the best horse in this division. I will have a look at her in the post parade. If her head is straight and focused, not on one line, that will be my cue to bet.

Race 8 - Two Year Old Filly Trot

For those of you who like handicapping, you hate Mission Brief. For those of you who like math, you might as well use it to handicap her. She has broke 3 of her last 7 races and when she breaks it's over. The other four were cakewalk wins. I don't think there's ever been a horse like this in harness racing history. If she's 2-5 she is mathematically a poor bet. End of story. She did drift out last week and should find it a bit tougher this time. 2,3 and 9 are uses for me in the sweep.

Race 9 - Three Year Old Filly Trot

Shake it Cerry stands out and should win this race at a short price, keying a low paying pick 4, if so. I have been very impressed of late, however, with 30-1 Morning line filly Riveting Rosie. I will use her in the two and three slots underneath, and in the pick 4.

Race 10 - Three Year Old Filly Pace

This is probably the most interesting race to bet of the evening. The star of the division is 6-5 chalk Colors a Virgin, but I will be looking elsewhere this evening, because I feel she will be too short a price and I expect some fireworks here off the gate.  I won't be betting the farm, but I will be looking at post ten starter Precocious Beauty, and last week's winner Gallie By the Beach.

We'll be back tomorrow with a look at the Saturday card.

In the meantime, for more Breeders' Crown thoughts there is a 10 page pullout in this month's Horseplayer Monthly magazine, for free, here. (includes a free pp link)

Good luck and Happy Friday!

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