Derby talk: i) Funny, and ii) kind of funny (and informative). The latter is from Equispace, who is a de-facto Mayor of North Tonawanda, or Tonawanda. Give it a visit. Since Conner McDavid is going to the Edmonton Oilers instead of the Sabres, he needs a lift.
Woodbine's pick 5 juice is even upsetting to Southern California newspaper racing writers. We agree Art.
While everyone points out Woodbine 25% P5 takeout, don't forget Churchill opens tomorrow and has a 22% P5 takeout rate.The pick 5 is not doing very well at Woodbine (season low today, by a lot). On Derby Day, Churchill's Pick 5 will be fine. However, I saw the pre-entries for some stakes on Derby Day, and as Craig points out, we may seem some short field chalk. Last Derby Day there were some solid post drags (on a day quite frankly where post drags make even more sense), and they may be more draggy this year (if that's a word; as you know I bastardize the english language here daily).
— Al Gobbi (@polarcritter) April 24, 2015
For those who missed the chatter about carding short field chalk, the TDN had a piece up Tuesday about it, written by someone who bets. (page 10, pdf).
Alphabets, industry orgs etc likely don't need to pump the Derby. But every one of them with a mailing list or megaphone needs to pump this.
I spent a half hour handicapping Moobie last night - really the only horse I have looked at in depth for the Derby. He strung together three 6 second 1/8's at the UAE Derby off soft fractions, the last 75 yards of them in a canter. And I think if he raced in the DWC instead, with any trip, he could've hit the board. There's something there, I think, but he is the quintessential horse that screams "need more data" to me.
Horse's like Moobie really add to the Derby. When the BG was on poly, and along with the Spiral winner, the turf leaning horses - Animal Kingdom, Dullahan for example - added to it as well. People want fewer Moobie's in "America's dirt race" but I like the added handicapping element. In the end, Moobie - because of the visually impressive win - will not be in my win slot. But he is a fun horse.
Fun article on Lincoln Chaffee, who is ready to throw his longshot hat in the ring for President, in harness racing update. If he ever did win and the lead horse in the inauguration parade threw a shoe, he could fix it.
Comment via email today about harness racing takeout rates from a Thoroughbred player: "Talk about depressing! I thought Thoroughbreds were bad but these takeout menus are awful."
7 questions with John Doyle, former NHC champ, and a pretty nice fella.
Keeneland handle, after a really poor 2014 meet, will be down again this year, despite running more races. But at least they got a dirt Derby prep, because, as we all know, there are not enough Derby preps.
I had a chat with Sid Fernando today - I like Sid, he is one of the good guys in this great sport - and the topic of blocking people on twitter came up. I always wondered, why does someone block someone when they've never interacted with you to give you a reason to block them? Why not just not follow them? That brought me back to when Bob Baffert blocked me, because he thought I was tweeting in another account. Understandable, but oh so horse racing (rumor is huge in this sport, on shedrows and twitter). I liked that when Bob found out the truth, he unblocked me and apologized on his feed. That was a classy move by Bob. I appreciated it.
Tomorrow there's a mandatory payout on the Gulfstream pick 6. That's pretty much a must play for small and big horseplayers alike.
Have you been following the DRF guys and gals on the twitter? I follow a few and they've been really interactive the last six months or so. I think so, anyway. Some decent folks to chat with at the DRF.
This Derby might be the most interesting Derby I've seen in some time. There's a lot of talent. I wonder, will wagering be up or down based on the many headline horses? You'd think up, but I wonder. Overall the card is an interesting experiment in handle as well. Shorter stakes fields, the fight that night.... plenty to wonder about in ten days from a business perspective.
That's all I got today, thankfully you are saying, I am sure. Have a nice Friday everyone.